Braves Travel to Washington With Tuesday’s Matchup in Minds

The Braves must put a disappointing series behind them in Florida and move to Washington with a clear mind, and quick. They have one of the toughest pitching matchups of the year facing them in the first game and are looking to get back on track with a big win.

The Nationals sport middle of the road numbers across the board as a team. They have a .320 wOBA with team totals of .258/.326/.398. They’re a weak team despite the monstrous Adam Dunn in the middle of the order and post average BB/K rates. The pitching staff isn’t much better, recording a team xFIP of 4.47 with the lowest strikeout numbers in the league at 6.27 K/9.

The combination of Dunn, Josh Willingham, and Ryan Zimmerman is doing damage, posting wOBA’s of .396, 391, and .388 respectively. The next highest regular is Roger Bernadina at .327. So while they have a solid core, the rest of the offense leaves a lot to be desired and holds the team back at times. The Braves and Nationals are 3-3 against each other this season.

The opener of the series on Tuesday features one of the best matchups of the season in Tommy Hanson vs. Stephen Strasburg. Both are young flamethrowers with tremendous stuff and tremendous futures. Hanson pitched a solid six-plus innings in his last start, allowing two runs on six hits. He struggled in the beginning of the game but settled down quickly and came out with a great effort. Hanson allowed four runs on nine hits in six innings against the Nationals in May and has a 2.94 ERA with a 2-0 record in five career starts against the Nationals.

We know about Strasburg so there’s no need for me to explain what makes this a good matchup from his side. He gave up three earned runs in his last start for the first time since doing so against the Braves in late June, giving up seven hits in five-plus innings against the Reds, though he did walk just one and strike out seven. Along with bad luck on Strasburg’s part, the Braves were the first team to really put pressure on him and make him work instead of being dumbfounded by his stuff. He has a ridiculous K/BB of FIVE and is striking out over 12 per nine innings, sporting a 2.15 xFIP.

Wednesday’s matchup features two veterans in Tim Hudson and Livan Hernandez. Hudson was near perfect against the Padres in his last start, pitching seven shutout innings on four hits while walking one and striking out four. He has long dominated the Nationals in his career to the tune of 9-1, 1.51 ERA with 19 walks and 76 strikeouts over 15 starts. Hudson outpitched Strasburg in their last matchup, pitching seven shutout innings. He has allowed two runs in 14 innings against the Nationals this season.

Hernandez has played over his head all season, recording a 4.59 xFIP along with that 3.12 ERA that used to live in the two’s. He’s walking only 2.58 BB/9 but striking out 4.75 K/9, both not far from his career averages. The difference is the .278 BABIP and 76.6 LOB%, meaning he has been lucky on balls in play and stranding runners. Hernandez is in the mold of Jamie Moyer in that he either shuts the Braves down or the Braves pummel him. In his one start against them this season, he allowed one earned run on five hits in 5.1 innings even though he walked five and struck out one.

Not knowing how the first game will play out, the third game could very well be the deciding one in the series. The Thursday afternoon matchup features Derek Lowe against Craig Stammen. Lowe continues to muster his 5.1 and 5.2 inning outings, going 5.2 last time against the Marlins and allowing four runs while walking five and striking out six. He faced the Nationals in late June and gave up four runs on eight hits in 5.2 innings (what else is new). Lowe has decent enough numbers in his career against the Nationals, recording a 3.86 ERA in 13 starts and 19 total games.

Stammen has been up and down since returning to Washington, allowing two runs in 7.1 innings against the Braves in his first start, followed by allowing seven runs to the Mets. His most recent outing was three runs allowed in five innings to the Brewers. Now that the Braves have seen him more than once, they need to get some runs across the board against him and start to figure him out. His inconsistency may help there.