The Oswalt Trade and Its Impact on the Braves

The Phillies done went and did it, trading for Roy Oswalt, who has agreed to waive his no-trade clause. In return, the Astros receive J.A. Happ, Anthony Gose, and Jonathan Villar. Gose was then flipped to Toronto for Brett Wallace.

Obviously this isn’t the haul the Astros had in mind, but it’s a salary dump and it had to be done in their eyes, I assume (or I hope, anyway, because what they got back is awful). The fact that the Phillies were able to keep Jayson Werth and add Oswalt is huge. If Werth was dealt to get Oswalt, the Phillies would have actually gotten worse as a team. But keeping Werth and getting Oswalt has made the Phillies a much better team. It’s sort of surprising that the Phillies didn’t jump at the first opportunity to add Oswalt and were actually patient, and it paid off for them. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then.

How does this impact the Braves? Well, considering the Phillies are 3 1/2 back entering today (not to mention the Braves already lost), it could be very big. The Phillies are instantly better by adding the 3.45 xFIP and 3.53 K/BB of Oswalt, who has been worth 2.7 wins to the Astros this season. Meanwhile, the Braves stand pat with what got them to this point, though they have now lost two straight series for the first time since early May and are struggling to score runs.

The problem is the market isn’t there for the Braves like it was for the Phillies. The Braves simply can’t throw prospects at an elite bat and match the Oswalt deal because it isn’t there for them like Oswalt was for the Phillies. You go after Josh Willingham and he might give you the same value as Oswalt will give the Phillies, but the market, along with a stingy Mike Rizzo, will more than likely require far more to receive Willingham than he’s worth.

I understand the trade deadline is about keeping your team in the pennant race with moves that might otherwise not be done, but this is a different situation entirely. If the market isn’t there and it takes a lot more to get what you want than it’s worth, it’s not your fault. The Braves can’t go out making the market by throwing top prospects at average outfielders. It’s a recipe for disappointment now and failure in the future. Just ask 80% of GMs.

If the Braves give up a load to get a decent corner outfielder, I won’t be jumping for joy. And I have a feeling that’s what it will take. Willingham has to be the target at this point, though I won’t sit here and say he is like I know for sure. He has been worth 2.9 wins to the Nationals with a career-high .389 wOBA, which is over ten points higher than his previous high. His ISO remains over .200 despite a drop off from the past couple years and it won’t be getting any better, though his future stats aren’t the main focus. His career BB/K is slightly better than Nate McLouth’s, which is not a good thing, but it is off the charts this year at 0.82 compared to his average of 0.59. He’s already about to match his walk total from last season at 61. Willingham is a good bat having a career year. That right now means a lot more than it did at this time last season.

Of course if the Braves are able to swing a deal without giving up as much as I’m expecting it will take, then that’s great and I will jump for joy. But until then I just got a little more worried about things going forward.