Braves Travel to Cincinnati With Two Tough Matchups in Store

While the trade rumors swirl as the deadline nears this Saturday, the Braves still have baseball to be played, and it’s a tough series ahead. After losing two straight series for the first time since early May, the Braves end their road trip with a three-game set against the Reds, who sit a half game ahead of the Cardinals in the Central.

The Reds have perhaps the best offense in the National League. They are tied with the Brewers for best wOBA at .340 and lead team OPS at .776. They don’t walk quite as much as a leading offense might but they keep the strikeout rates down and have a solid ISO of .166, second to the Brewers. Much of the hitting is due to the combination of Joey Votto and Scott Rolen, who have wOBA’s of .438 and .385. But another reason is the lack of a weakness. The offense is strong top to bottom.

As is usually the case, the pitching staff is the weakness of the Reds. They are fourth from the bottom of the league in xFIP at 4.51. They have a rather weak K/BB of 1.90 but are able to keep the home run rate respectable despite their ballpark.

The series opener on Friday night features two young hurlers in Kris Medlen and Johnny Cueto. Medlen struggled in his return to the rotation against the Marlins last time out, allowing five runs in six innings, though he did strike out eight. I expect him to return to his dominant ways soon now that he’s back in his regular routine. It will help that the Reds have never seen Medlen, also. He will need to keep the ball down and prevent hard fly balls, as he is prone to giving up a few, posting a HR/9 of 1.19.

Cueto looks like he’s having a breakout season but it’s actually right in line with his past two. His ERA’s in his previous two seasons have been more in line with his xFIP in the mid-4’s, but the ERA has dropped considerably this season despite the normal 4.42 xFIP. That’s due to a LOB% of 78.3% and BABIP of .286. He’s walking fewer but also striking out fewer, and his BB/K is actually lower than his career average. Some of his success may also have to do with a considerable drop in home runs allowed, from 1.26 to 0.65 HR/9. Cueto is vulnerable and lives dangerously, but taking advantage is the hard part. He has given up three runs in 13 career innings against the Braves.

Saturday’s game is featured on FOX in the afternoon. The matchup is Jair Jurrjens vs. Bronson Arroyo. Jurrjens had a tough luck outing last time out against the Marlins, allowing four runs in seven innings, yet just as easily could have pitched a shutout. He hasn’t had much success against the Reds, allowing ten runs in 13.1 innings with ten walks and seven strikeouts, good for a 0-2 record in three starts.

The Braves always enjoy seeing Arroyo take the mound. He has a 5.90 ERA in 11 starts and 12 total games against them, including 14 homers allowed. Arroyo is having a down season, posting a 4.93 xFIP and 1.48 K/BB, due to a big drop in strikeouts at 4.34 K/9. He’s getting pounded yet it could be even worse. His whiff rate is tied for the lowest of his career. With two tough opponents in the first and third games, the Braves have to take advantage of this matchup.

The Sunday afternoon game is Tommy Hanson vs. Edinson Volquez. Hanson pitched a solid six innings against the Nationals in his last start, allowing one earned run on six hits while not walking any and striking out eight. He finally showed some efficiency despite a few early struggles again, though most was the defense’s fault. He needs to turn around his career numbers against the Reds, however, allowing eight runs in 7.2 career innings.

After making a splash in his return from surgery with six innings of one-run ball against the Rockies, Volquez has allowed ten runs in his last six innings over two starts. He has also walked eight over that stretch. Volquez has a 3.18 ERA in three career starts against the Braves but is 0-2. The Braves have numbers on their sides but Volquez is always tough and I wouldn’t expect any different here. It’s a tough matchup and could rival the first game of the series as best of the week.