Quit Worrying About Clutchness & Be Patient

First of all, no, this is not a response or copy of David O’Brien’s blog from the fourth. He gave you the ugly numbers. I’m here to tell you to be patient.

We all know by now the Braves are on base more often than any other team in the National League. Their .343 OBP is ahead of the Rockies’ .340 for tops in the league. Much of this is due to the best walk rate in the league at 10.5%, ahead of the Rockies and Diamondbacks by a full percentage point. And they maintain a solid strikeout rate to go along with it, giving them an NL-best 0.59 BB/K. They’re good at putting the ball in play and working counts, and they aren’t hitting above their heads; it’s actually on par with how the constructed lineup should be hitting for the most part.

So what you take from these numbers is the Braves get on base a lot. With this comes more attempts at moving runners over and driving in runs. With more attempts comes more chances of failure. You wouldn’t think I would have to spell it out, but with people so attached to “clutch” numbers spelling the doom of the Braves, I feel the need.

In April, the Braves had the best BB/K in the league at 0.64, yet they weren’t getting hits due to bad luck with lined shots. They were middle of the pack in line drive percentage but posted the third worst wOBA at .301. I shouldn’t have to tell you they had the lowest BABIP in the league at .272. They mixed in a nine-game losing streak in which they scored a total of 17 runs over that stretch and ended the month at 9-14. No big deal, bad starts happen, the offense can get going at any time.

In May, the Braves maintained the best BB/K in the league at 0.71. They recorded the second best OBP and wOBA in the league at .364 and .352. They hit fewer line drives and grounders (still middle of the pack) and more balls in the air, resulting in more home runs. They also recorded the third highest BABIP in the league at .314. Things went their way, they found new power behind Troy Glaus, liners found holes and balls dropped, and they came out with a 20-8 record for the month. We no longer want to strangle Glaus, we found our lineup with Martin Prado and Jason Heyward at the top, and good things are just beginning.

In June, the Braves still had the best BB/K in the league at 0.56. They posted the best OBP in the league at .346 and second best wOBA at .329. Line drives went back up to 19% and grounders continued to decrease at 42%. Fewer balls were hit in the air and fewer home runs were hit, but a .316 BABIP helped keep the offense going with solid on-base numbers and in turn runs scored. The Braves went 17-11 in the month. The pitching staff is living up to its bill, we’re winning close games, and the team reminds everybody of 1991.

In July, the Braves didn’t walk as much and only had the sixth best BB/K in the league at 0.44. Their OBP remained fourth in the league at .331 because despite the drop in walks they still had one of the best rates. However, they dropped to tenth in wOBA at .324. They saw a slight decrease in line drives to 18% and increase in grounders to 43%, neither big. Their BABIP dropped to .304, yet it was still good for sixth in the league. None of the differences are huge, but I can almost guarantee they turned for the worst as the month went on. Before the break the Braves went 6-3. After, they were 7-8. Again, not big at all, but close scores were no longer in their favor. This is obvious by just looking down the scores. Glaus quit hitting again, Heyward came off the disabled list hot but who knew how long his thumb would hold up, the bullpen struggled with close games late, and the offense turned to relying on the late home run every night. Things were not trending well.

Obviously you can’t determine anything by four games in August. However, I can determine a decrease in BABIP from June to July and so far this month. The walks are still there and the line drive rate is being maintained. Nothing has changed as far as approach or hitting style (thankfully). But the fan pulse? Doomsday because of a lack of clutch hitting.

Let me just repeat the thousands of others who have already preached it: there is no such thing as clutch hitting. If the Braves maintain their line drives, walks, and keep their wOBA in the top ten as they have three months this season, or top three as they have two months, runs will come. They were doing well with line drives and walks during that awful April, they were doing well with line drives and walks during their hot offensive stretch in May and June, and they are doing well with line drives and walks now. Quit worrying about hits with runners in scoring position. As long as they maintain their solid-on base numbers, runs will come. Baseball is random in short spurts. Get used to it.

In closing I say this: if the Braves don’t return to May or June-like numbers again this season, I will eat my shoe.