Game Preview: San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves (Game 3)

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Saturday, August 7 – 7:10 (SportSouth)
San Francisco Giants (63-47) vs. Atlanta Braves (62-47)

Matt Cain
(2.98 ERA, 4.50 xFIP, 2.98 BB/9, 6.74 K/9, 7.9 SwStr%)
(Career vs. ATL: 4 GS, 2-1, 3.75 ERA, 13 BB, 18 K)
vs.
Tim Hudson
(2.36 ERA, 4.20 xFIP, 3.15 BB/9, 4.66 K/9, 6.6 SwStr%, 64.5 GB%)
(Career vs. SF: 12 GS, 4-4, 3.90 ERA, 24 BB, 52 K)

Braves vs. Cain:

 PAABH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPS
Nate McLouth15143200402.214.200.357.557
Brian McCann1193200321.333.455.5561.010
Chipper Jones993000201.333.333.333.667
Troy Glaus880000002.000.000.000.000
Alex Gonzalez870000013.000.125.000.125
Rick Ankiel761100011.167.286.333.619
Gregor Blanco741000032.250.571.250.821
Omar Infante661000102.167.167.167.333
Jair Jurrjens440000003.000.000.000.000
Derek Lowe430000002.000.000.000.000
Melky Cabrera331000200.333.333.333.667
David Ross320000011.000.333.000.333
Total85751350012820.173.250.240.490

Giants vs. Hudson:

 PAABH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPS
Pat Burrell33316001326.194.242.290.533
Aubrey Huff22207100312.350.364.400.764
Aaron Rowand21188100120.444.524.5001.024
Freddy Sanchez19183100003.167.211.222.433
Edgar Renteria10102100101.200.200.300.500
Pablo Sandoval330000100.000.000.000.000
Juan Uribe220000000.000.000.000.000
Jonathan Sanchez110000001.000.000.000.000
Nate Schierholtz110000000.000.000.000.000
Total112104264019513.250.295.317.612

What to Look For:
Another close game featuring great pitching. Both Cain and Hudson have had lucky seasons but with the way these two offenses are going, it will likely come down to another big hit or two. Hudson wasn’t as sharp in his last start but still allowed just one run in six innings to the Mets. He faced the Giants in April and allowed two runs on three hits in seven innings. Obviously the Braves will rely on another solid outing from him. Cain missed the Braves in April but he has been fairly effective against them in four starts, giving up quite a few hits but only ten runs in 24 innings. He has been hot on the mound lately and the Braves have another tough one in store.

My Take on the Opposition:
Cain is in the same boat as Zito in that his shiny ERA is covering how he is really pitching. Cain has never pitched to his ERA but his .255 BABIP this season is by far his lowest. His 4.50 xFIP is right in line with his average. He is walking the lowest amount of his career at 2.98 BB/9 but he’s also striking out the fewest at 6.74 K/9. In turn, his whiff rate is the lowest of his career. As a result, Cain’s WAR of 2.6 is the lowest of his career. It’s hard to believe how people continue to say how unlucky he is. Cain has pitched a shutout in two of his past three starts, including 7.2 shutout innings on four hits against the Dodgers last time out. He has allowed ten runs in 24 career innings against the Braves.