A Big League Debut Highlights the Three-Game Series in Houston

After taking three of four from the Giants in a tough series over the weekend, the Braves cool down some by heading to Houston for three against the Astros.

The Astros are the worst offensive team in the National League. As a team, they have a .298 wOBA, hitting .247/.305/.364. Somehow they have the lowest strikeout rate in the league but also the lowest walk rate, meaning they hit the ball but it’s usually an out, and judging by a .117 ISO and 48% GB%, they’re usually weak outs. There isn’t much to look at regarding key hitters to watch. Chris Johnson is on a major tear and is playing everyday, sporting a .402 wOBA. Jeff Keppinger and Hunter Pence have been the mainstays in the lineup and they have a wOBA of .338 and .336. Brett Wallace will work the count and add walks to the lineup. Michael Bourn and Carlos Lee are never on base.

The pitching staff is ranked sixth in the league in xFIP at 4.17. They have a pretty good K/BB of 2.19 and have been unlucky this season, recording a .328 BABIP, meaning that team ERA of 4.44 is misleading.

Monday night’s matchup is one the Braves have been waiting for. Mike Minor makes his Major League debut against Bud Norris. I posted a guide to watching Minor’s debut but will go over a few things again. He has combined for 46 BB and 146 K in 120.1 innings between AA and AAA this season, posting a 3.44 ERA. His ERA was a bit high in AA but a 3.20 FIP shows he was unlucky in his stint there. In any case, Minor has blown through the minors with ease and appears ready for his debut in his first full season as a pro.

Norris has been very unlucky this season, recording a .357 BABIP and 60.5 LOB%. This results in a major drop from his 5.65 ERA to 3.91 xFIP. He has a solid 2.28 K/BB, though he walks over four per nine innings. He lives by strikeouts and has seen an increase to 9.52 K/9 this season, posting a SwStr% of 11% again. Norris is unpredictable and will either give the Astros a shutout or five runs allowed. He allowed four runs on seven hits in six innings against the Cardinals in his last start, walking one and striking out six. He made his first career start against the Braves earlier this season, allowing seven runs in 4.2 innings.

Tuesday night features an old friend in J.A. Happ against Jair Jurrjens. Jurrjens was knocked around some in the early going of his last start against the Giants, but settled down to allow two runs in six innings. He continues to pitch efficiently and showed good stuff in coming back from early struggles in that start. He has one career start against the Astros but only went two innings and allowed one run.

For some reason the Astros made Happ their Major League piece in the Roy Oswalt deal. He has made five total starts this season and has a 7.66 BB/9, compared to a 6.45 K/9. In other words, he has walked 19 in 22.1 innings. After a good start in his first outing with the Astros in which he pitched six shutout innings on two hits against the Brewers, Happ gave up seven runs and didn’t get to the second inning against the Cardinals in his last start. He has had plenty success against the Braves in 32 innings, allowing eight runs total.

Wednesday afternoon will see Tommy Hanson and Wandy Rodriguez. Hanson only struck out three in his last start, but had one of his best outings of the season when he allowed one run on three hits in seven innings. He has allowed one earned run in each of his past three starts. He faced the Astros earlier this season and had one of his best starts then as well, allowing two runs on four hits in eight innings, not walking any and striking out seven. He has allowed two runs in 16 career innings against the Astros.

Rodriguez has been a bit unlucky this season but is still off from his previous years. His strikeout rate is down considerably to 7.13 K/9, compared to 8.45 last season. He’s also walking more at 3.08 BB/9 and his whiff rate is down to 8.2%. It’s hard to believe Rodriguez only had two great seasons in him but that seems to be the trend so far, not to mention he’s 31 now. Perhaps what has caused him the most trouble is a major drop in value from his curveball, which has gone from 23.9 runs to -6.2. Rodriguez went on a stretch of 15 scoreless innings and allowed just one earned run over 6.1 innings in his last start, walking none and striking out seven. He gave up two earned runs and five total on ten hits in five innings against the Braves earlier this season. He has a 4.72 ERA in 40 career innings against the Braves.