Your Guide to Mike Minor’s Debut

By now you know of Mike Minor‘s promotion and scheduled debut against the Astros on Monday. For the diehard Braves fan, Minor’s path through the minor leagues has been well known and well documented, and they will be coming into the game knowing what to expect from Minor regarding what he has to offer. But for the casual fan, Minor may not be as well known, and that is what this post is for.

Minor was the seventh overall pick in the 2009 draft by the Braves out of Vanderbilt. The pick was regarded by many as too conservative given the high placement, as Minor didn’t offer much in the way of stuff and velocity. Apparently the Braves knew something that others didn’t. Minor allowed just one run in 14 innings at the tail end of 2009 with Rome, not walking any and striking out 17. While the numbers were incredible, it was a small sample and coming from the low minors, where an advanced lefty eats hitters alive. His 2010 season would show what exactly the Braves had.

Minor began this season at AA Mississippi and threw 87 innings, recording a 3.93 ERA with 34 walks and 109 strikeouts. The ERA isn’t indicative of how Minor truly pitched, as a .330 BABIP showed he was a bit unlucky. A 3.20 FIP is more in line with how he pitched. His walk total remained solid and even if it saw a spike, it was to be expected as he worked with his stuff and adapted to added velocity, which I will get to in a second. But along with a good walk rate came the large number of strikeouts, which was not expected, and it opened a lot of eyes around baseball.

With such success at AA came a quick promotion to AAA Gwinnett, where Minor has seen 33 innings on the mound with a 1.89 ERA. He was luckier in this stint, evident by a .247 BABIP and 2.50 FIP. But Minor’s walk rate remained the same and his strikeouts remained high despite the advanced level, walking 12 and striking out 37. By then it was obvious the Braves had more than they themselves probably thought they’d have. With this and Kris Medlen‘s injury came a big league promotion in his first full season as a pro.

When he was drafted, Minor was slotted as a fourth starter at best. He possessed a fastball ranging from 86-88 MPH with no plus offering, relying on a good slider and changeup and trying to maintain a curve. Now, Minor’s fastball has been clocked in the mid-90’s and he has ditched the curve to focus on his slider and changeup. Neither have progressed to plus offerings but he has improved both pitches and they’re said to be sharper. Walks might become a concern at the big league level, especially early due to added velocity because those extra few miles per hour can affect command and it will be shown against the plate discipline of big league hitters. If anything beats him early, it will be command.

I have said on more than one occasion that if Bobby Cox had handled Kenshin Kawakami right, Kawakami would have been the easy choice to take Medlen’s spot. After all, Kawakami was slated as the backup starter in such a case as this. However, he was allowed to rot in the bullpen and is now forced to stretch out at Gwinnett, leaving an average major league starter at AAA while a rookie in his first full year as a pro is given starting duties for the remainder of a pennant run. But it’s in the past and there’s no use bringing up old arguments. It’s time to become a fan and root the new kid to a win in his debut.