Braves Wrap Up Quick Trip With Three in Colorado

After taking two of three from the Cubs, the Braves travel West to face the Rockies for three before heading home. It could be a crucial series considering the Phillies are facing the Astros at home.

The Rockies are 63-60 and sit third in the NL West. As usual, they have a solid offense, posting the third best wOBA in the league at .330, which is a point better than the Braves. They walk at the third highest rate in the league at 9.3%. Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki lead the offense with a wOBA of .389 and .388. Several hitters have maintained solid wOBA’s, such as Seth Smith, Jason Giambi, Ryan Spilborghs, and Dexter Fowler. It’s a balanced offense.

The Rockies are also tied for the fourth best pitching staff with a 4.01 xFIP. They rack up a good number of strikeouts but also walk their share, and their 4.06 ERA is pretty much in line with how they have pitched.

Monday night’s matchup is Tim Hudson vs. Jason Hammel. Hudson wasn’t quite as sharp in his last start against the Nationals but still held them to two runs in seven innings. It was the first runs he has allowed since August 2nd. Hudson has a 4.65 ERA in five career starts against the Rockies.

Hammel has pitched better than a 4.36 ERA, recording a 3.80 xFIP. He’s maintaining his great walk rate from last year at 2.51 BB/9 while increasing his strikeouts to 7.26 K/9. He’s not missing as many bats (70% O-Contact%) due to a decrease in the success of his curve, which was insane last season. Still, he has one of the best curves in the game and it’s fun to watch, no matter who you root for. Hammel maintains a 45% GB% and isn’t allowing as many homers. He was bombed by the Braves earlier this season, allowing seven runs in less than two full innings, and has allowed 18 runs in 10.2 career innings against them.

Tuesday night’s matchup is Derek Lowe vs. Jorge de la Rosa. Lowe gave up four runs to the Nationals in seven innings but didn’t pitch that bad, not walking any and striking out six. He hasn’t walked more than one in any start since July 23rd, when he walked five against the Marlins. He gave up four runs in five innings to the Rockies in a start this season and has a 4.37 ERA in 19 career starts against them.

De La Rosa’s 4.74 ERA is a bit high for how he has pitched but not a lot. He has a 3.84 xFIP and has a swinging strike percentage of 10.7%, but he is walking more at 4.87 BB/9 and striking out fewer at 8.69 K/9, and is giving up more home runs. One bright spot is a significant increase in grounders at 57.7% along with continuing to have a great changeup. De La Rosa has allowed nine runs in 6.2 career innings against the Braves.

Wednesday afternoon’s matchup is Jair Jurrjens vs. Esmil Rogers. Jurrjens gave up nine hits in seven innings but only three runs to the Cubs in his last start. He limited the walks to one for the third straight start, and has 12 strikeouts over that stretch. Jurrjens has a 3.02 ERA in six career starts against the Rockies, including three runs in eight innings earlier this season.

Rogers is another Rockies pitcher with a high ERA compared to xFIP, which is 4.53 compared to 3.67. He has a BABIP of .364 and LOB% of 60%, so it’s justified here. Rogers has a strikeout rate of 7.93 K/9 with a SwStr% of 9% in 47.2 innings of his rookie season. He’s a skinny 25-year-old with a fastball, slider, curve who was ranked fifth in the Rockies system this season by John Sickels. He has never faced the Braves.