Four Solid Matchups Highlight a Tough Series Against the Cardinals

After a long break in which I dealt with no internet or tv, I am finally back on the scene, starting with a tough four-game series against the Cardinals at the Ted.

The Cardinals have an offense that knows the strike zone, recording a BB/K of 0.52 as a team. While the 8.6 BB% is not head-turning, they do a good job of putting the ball in play, striking out at a rate of 18.6%. They have a team wOBA of .321, which is middle of the road. The offense has been short of spectacular despite a solid middle of the order. Albert Pujols continues his hunt for the Triple Crown, posting a .411 wOBA. Matt Holliday sits at .387 and Jon Jay is at .365. After outfielders Colby Rasmus and Ryan Ludwick, the rest of the order is weak and it has caused the Cardinals much trouble.

The Cardinals’ pitching staff is fifth-best in the National League with a 4.03 xFIP. They have a K/BB of 2.32, sporting the second-lowest BB/9 in the league at 2.91. They have a pretty low K-rate but make up for it with the best GB% in the league at 50.2%.

Pitching matchups after the jump…

Adam Wainwright and Jair Jurrjens face off in the series opener on Thursday. The Braves could use all the help they can get against Wainwright, who is 5-0 with a 2.00 ERA against the Braves, and they might be catching him at the right time as he has lost his last four starts. Despite the recent rough stretch, Wainwright is having the best season of his career and is a top candidate for the Cy Young award. He has a 3.21 xFIP and 3.61 K/BB. He is allowing fewer homers (0.58 HR/9) and getting more grounders (52.3%). The Braves know they are in for a tough game.

The Braves will rely heavily on Jurrjens to keep them in the game. His last appearance against the Cardinals marked the beginning of a long absence as he left after one inning with the hamstring injury, allowing three runs. Jurrjens is 1-3 with a 3.27 ERA in four starts against the Cardinals. He pitched seven shutout innings on three hits against the Marlins last time out, striking out seven.

Friday’s matchup is Chris Carpenter against Mike Minor. Carpenter is not far behind Wainwright in effectiveness this season, posting a 3.76 xFIP and 2.93 K/BB. He’s getting grounders at a rate of 52% and has remained durable for the Cardinals, currently at 204 innings. Carpenter allowed two runs in six innings against the Braves earlier this season, but the Braves have had success against him in his career, recording a 5.83 ERA in eight starts.

Minor continues to make his first round around the league, seeing the Cardinals for the first time. He had his worst outing as a Brave last time out, allowing six runs in four innings against the Marlins. However, he did not walk any and struck out five.

Saturday afternoon’s matchup is Jake Westbrook and Tommy Hanson. Westbrook was a midseason acquisition for the Cardinals. He has a 4.06 xFIP and walks just 2.73 BB/9. He does not strike out many, but gets grounders at a rate of 56%. Westbrook’s slider and changeup have kept hitters off balance this season, resulting in the increase in groundballs and decrease in home runs allowed. He has one career start against the Braves, allowing four runs in five innings.

After the one-hit shutout against the Mets, Hanson answered it with two earned runs in six innings against the Pirates. His strikeout numbers remain down – he has not seen a number over five since July – but other than the four homers allowed against the Marlins, he has kept the ball down and is not getting beat with the long ball. It is not the game he plays, but until his strikeouts return, he has to keep the grounders coming. Hanson has never faced the Cardinals.

The Sunday night matchup on ESPN features Kyle Lohse and Tim Hudson. Lohse has suffered from a forearm injury this season and is at 65 innings, recording a 5.10 xFIP. His walks are up and strikeouts are down, and he is not getting as many grounders or swinging strikes. A .373 BABIP and 53% LOB% spells some of the trouble. Lohse allowed three runs in six innings against the Braves earlier this season. He has a 4.70 ERA in eight career starts against them.

Hudson has lost his last two starts, allowing seven earned runs in 13.1 innings against the Mets and Pirates. He is keeping the walks at a minimum and is not getting beat by long balls, but hits are finding holes right now. He gave up three runs in six innings against the Cardinals earlier this season. He has a 4.96 ERA in eight career starts against them.