Spotlight Is On Braves and Phillies to Begin the Week

This is it. When the schedules were announced prior to this season, many looked to this and the final series against the Phillies as possibly the deciding factors for both teams. They were right. The Braves travel to Philadelphia for a three-game series in what could determine the team’s divisional chances.

The Phillies are as hot as ever, winning seven in a row. They have swept the past two series against the Marlins and Nationals. Their last series loss came in the final days of July. The Phillies have worked their rotation to where their top three starters will face the Braves in this series. It’s easy to see the Braves have plenty of work to do.

Monday’s matchup is Jair Jurrjens and Cole Hamels. Jurrjens has now suffered rough starts in back-to-back outings, allowing a total of 11 runs in his last 8.2 innings. He allowed four runs in five innings to the Nationals last time out. Walks have not been the problem the past two starts, but I can’t help but feel mechanics are the issue, as he is constantly leaving the ball up in the zone. Jurrjens gave up three runs in six innings to the Phillies the last time they met, and he has a 2.56 ERA in nine career starts against them.

Hamels is having perhaps the best season of his career, posting a 3.38 xFIP and 3.59 K/BB. The walks are up but so are the strikeouts, currently at a career-high 9.29 K/9. He’s getting grounders at a career rate of 45% and maintaining a whiff rate of 12%. Hamels is thriving by not relying so heavily on the changeup and throwing his new-found cutter a lot. He gave up three runs in seven innings to the Braves earlier this season. He holds a 4.25 ERA in 17 career starts against them.

Tuesday’s matchup is Mike Minor and Roy Halladay. Minor is being given another shot simply because there isn’t anybody else. He allowed four runs in five innings on a grand slam to the Nationals last time out, and he has allowed four home runs in his last 14 innings. Aside from the grand slam, Minor did look better, though you can probably contribute much of that to facing the Nationals. The name of the game for Minor here is keeping the Braves in the game. He will have to keep the ball in the park. He has never faced the Phillies.

Halladay is having the best season of his career, which is scary to think about. His xFIP sits at 2.89 and his K/BB at 7.50, both career-bests. He has a 1.07 BB/9 and 8.05 K/9. Halladay gets swinging strikes at a rate of almost 10%, and his groundball percentage is over 50%. An extreme mix of fastballs, cutters, changeups and curveballs continues to be the name of the game. Halladay allowed one run in a complete-game outing last time against the Braves. He has given up two runs in 28.2 career innings against them.

Wednesday’s matchup is Tommy Hanson and Roy Oswalt. Hanson allowed four runs in six innings to the Mets last time out, but he pitched better than the line indicates (what else is new). Hanson continues to struggle with recording strikeouts, getting just four against the Mets, but he held them to one walk and kept the ball on the ground. Hanson allowed one run in 6.2 innings to the Phillies earlier this season. He has a 3.93 ERA in four starts against them.

Oswalt is also having one of his best seasons, recording a 3.48 xFIP and 3.48 K/BB. He is striking out batters at a rate of 8.20 K/9, which is his highest since his rookie season of 2001. A BABIP of .267 and fewer grounders means Oswalt is getting a good bit of luck, but he is still a dominating pitcher. He’s mixing in an equal amount of sliders, curves and changeups, and all have thrived this season. Oswalt has yet to face the Braves this season. He holds a 0-3 mark and 7.58 ERA in seven career starts.