Braves Look to Lock Up Playoff Spot in Final Series

A sweep of the Marlins in their last series gives the Braves a considerable advantage heading to the final series of the season.

After losing three of four to the Cubs and four of their last five, the Padres are falling fast. The Braves have a magic number of two as they begin their last series, a three-game set at home against the already-clinched Phillies.

The number one goal for the Braves right now is getting that first win in the series. After that, they should try to prevent Tim Hudson from having to start the final game of the season. If he has to pitch, it means the Braves haven’t clinched yet and are depending on a win in the final game. If he doesn’t have to pitch, it means the Braves have clinched and they can set up Hudson as the starter in Game 1 of the NLDS.

It’s also worth mentioning that emotions will be running high in this series, as it is the last regular season series for Bobby Cox. A ceremony will be held before the game Saturday, and sellouts are expected all three games. This can only help the Braves’ chances.

Friday night’s matchup is Kyle Kendrick and Brandon Beachy. Since working with a cutter, Kendrick has seen his stats go to the pooper. His GB% has dipped more than 10% to 44.8%, and he’s giving up fly balls at a rate of 38.2% compared to 22.1% last season. A HR/9 of 1.33 and K/9 of 4.20 explain the 4.79 xFIP. Kendrick has taken a big step back from last year, but naturally he has had plenty of success against the Braves in his career, recording a 2.53 ERA in 53.1 innings. He gave up one run in seven innings earlier this season.

Beachy’s strikeout numbers finally showed up against the Nationals, punching out nine in five innings. He allowed two runs on five hits, but he also walked three. It’s an improvement over his debut, but he remains vulnerable with his control. Beachy makes his third career start against the team he made his debut against. On the 20th, he allowed one earned run and three total in 4.1 innings against the Phillies.

Saturday afternoon’s matchup features Cole Hamels and Tommy Hanson. My analysis of Hamels from the previous series preview can be found here. He had one of his best starts of the season against the Braves in that last series, allowing one run in eight innings. It lowered his career ERA against them to 4.02 in 18 starts. Hamels’ most recent start was four innings against the Mets, in which he allowed five runs on nine hits and walked three. It’s quite possible this is a layoff from the Braves start considering he threw 117 pitches in that one.

Hanson has been brilliant in his past two starts, allowing one run in 13.2 innings. After six shutout innings on two hits against the Phillies, he most recently allowed one run in 7.2 innings to the Marlins, including no walks. I remain terrified of how Hanson is getting things done in the second half, but as long as it continues with success through the playoffs I will keep my mouth shut. His career ERA against the Phillies is 2.96 in five starts.