Game Preview: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves (Game 1)

Friday, October 1 – 7:35 (SportSouth)
Philadelphia Phillies (95-64) vs. Atlanta Braves (90-69)

Kyle Kendrick
(4.76 ERA, 4.79 xFIP, 2.36 BB/9, 4.20 K/9, 5.1 SwStr%, 44.8 GB%)
(Career vs. ATL: 9 G, 8 GS, 4-1, 2.53 ERA, 18 BB, 19 K)
vs.
Brandon Beachy
(2.89 ERA, 4.34 xFIP, 5.79 BB/9, 9.64 K/9, 9 SwStr%, 26.9 GB%)
(Career vs. PHI: 1 GS, 0-1, 2.08 ERA, 3 BB, K)

Braves vs. Kendrick:
Brian McCann: 6-21, 2B, HR, RBI, 3 BB
Nate McLouth: 3-11, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K
Omar Infante: 2-7
Rick Ankiel: 2-5, 2B, BB
Jason Heyward: 1-6, K
Eric Hinske: 0-4, K
Alex Gonzalez: 0-3

Phillies vs. Beachy:
Placido Polanco: 0-3, RBI
Chase Utley: 1-3, K
Shane Victorino: 1-3
Ryan Howard: 1-1, 2B, BB
Raul Ibanez: 0-2
Carlos Ruiz: 1-2, 2B, RBI
Jayson Werth: 0-2

What to Watch:
Whether the Braves can touch Kyle Kendrick. Despite allowing a lot of hits and walks, Kendrick hasn’t allowed many runs against the Braves in his career. They need to turn that around here and give Brandon Beachy some support. It is Beachy’s third start and second against the Phillies. He took a big step forward in his last start against the Nationals, and he could be auditioning for a playoff spot tonight.

My Take on the Opposition:
Since working with a cutter, Kendrick has seen his stats go to the pooper. His GB% has dipped more than 10% to 44.8%, and he’s giving up fly balls at a rate of 38.2% compared to 22.1% last season. A HR/9 of 1.33 and K/9 of 4.20 explain the 4.79 xFIP. Kendrick has taken a big step back from last year, but naturally he has had plenty of success against the Braves in his career, recording a 2.53 ERA in 53.1 innings. He gave up one run in seven innings earlier this season.