Your Guide to the NLDS (Giants Rotation)
By Editorial Staff
First off, let me give you the playoff schedule:
Thursday, Oct. 7 – 9:37 (TBS)
Derek Lowe vs. Tim Lincecum
Friday, Oct. 8 – 9:37 (TBS)
Tommy Hanson vs. Matt Cain
Saturday, Oct. 10 – 4:37 (TBS)
Jonathan Sanchez vs. Tim Hudson
The Braves and Giants series features two of the best pitching staffs in the league. It’s easy to predict low-scoring games and great pitching on both sides for this series, and you’ll probably be right. This post gives you what you need for all three Giants starters you will see, as well as what the Giants bullpen features.
Tim Lincecum:
All of the talk of Lincecum’s “down year” just shows how good the guy is. He’s sporting a 3.21 xFIP, which is right in line with his career average. A .324 BABIP explains much of Lincecum’s higher ERA at 3.43. He has maintained line drive rate at his career average of 19% and has recorded the best GB% of his career at 48.9%. Home runs are a little up, but 0.76 HR/9 is hardly terrible. The same goes for K/BB, which is 3.04, down from the last couple years but still solid. It’s true Lincecum’s WPA is down at 2.44 and WAR is down at 5.1 according to Fangraphs, but both are really good and ace material.
Lincecum is 6-2 with a 2.89 ERA in eight career starts against the Braves, including 61 strikeouts in 53 innings. The Braves saw him twice this year, the first coming in April when he struck out 10 and allowed two runs in seven innings for the win. The second start was in August, where he allowed three runs in 6.1 innings, walking three and striking out seven, and the Braves won.
The Braves have to catch Lincecum’s curve and changeup when it’s left up, and that seems to be his trouble this year when he runs into rough spots. People have talked about the decrease in velocity for his fastball and he isn’t spotting it as well, but his curveball has been well below average this season and he is very vulnerable when the changeup is left over the plate. The Braves can’t let him get into a groove after the second and third innings, but if it happens, they must catch him when he runs out of gas. Lincecum threw 212 innings this year, his lowest amount as a full-time starter.
Matt Cain:
Cain has always lived with low ERAs and rather high xFIPs. He has a 3.14 ERA and 4.19 xFIP this season, recording a .260 BABIP and 75.3% LOB%. Despite this, it is Cain’s best xFIP of his career, resulting in the best WAR of his career at four wins. His BB/9 was the best of his career at 2.46, which probably helped him take the next step more than anything considering he lives off flyouts. His GB% remained at his career average of 36%. His FB% saw a spike to 46.6%, but much of that is due to a big increase in infield fly balls. You would think Cain would thrive off pitching in a spacious home field, but he allowed 10 homers at home compared to 12 on the road. He throws a lot of fastballs and an equal amount of changeups and curveballs. His changeup has long been the more reliable pitch.
Cain is 2-2 with a 4.03 ERA in five career starts against the Braves. They have made him work and haven’t been punched out too many times against him. They missed him the first time around but caught him in August, when he allowed three runs in six innings and was tagged with a loss.
Cain has been a model of consistency, constantly going at least six innings in most of his starts and ending at 223 innings. This is especially the case lately because he hasn’t walked more than one in a start since August 7, when he walked two. The Braves can’t wait for walks, they have to be aggressive and go for extra base hits. Sitting on the fastball is their best bet.
Jonathan Sanchez:
Sanchez is a do-or-die type of pitcher, walking a ton (4.47 BB/9) and striking out a ton (9.54 K/9), while giving up his share of homers at times. Sanchez has by far the lowest ERA of his career at 3.07, but his xFIP remained around his average at 4.11. A .262 BABIP and 79.5 LOB% explain this. He was perhaps more valuable to the team this year, but his stuff and his numbers didn’t really change. Sanchez established his fastball better this year and worked off it with a slider that is solid, but his changeup remains nothing more than something to give hitters to look at. Like Cain, he lives off flyouts and is more prone to home runs, but he’s a pure strikeout pitcher who is capable of racking up double digits in no time.
Sanchez is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA in five starts and seven total appearances against the Braves. He has 31 strikeouts in 27 innings, but the Braves have scored 18 runs in that amount. He didn’t go past 4.1 innings in either of his two starts against the Braves this season. In April, he allowed three runs on seven hits in 4.1 innings, walking two and striking out six. In August, he allowed four runs on five hits in four innings, walking three and striking out four.
As I’ve said, Sanchez will get his share of strikeouts but will give up a ton of fly balls and possibly home runs. The Braves need to sit on the fastball and be aggressive. They will strike out, but it only takes a couple shots to the right center gap.
Giants Bullpen:
The Giants bullpen has the sixth-best xFIP in the league at 4.02. Their HR/9 is by far the lowest in the league at 0.57, while their K/9 sits at 8.65. They feature one of the most explosive closers in baseball by the name of Brian Wilson. He has a K/9 of 11.21 and xFIP of 2.99, while recording a BABIP of .334. Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo are two right-handed relievers turned to often. Romo has a K/9 over 10 and shows excellent control. Casilla struggles with control at times but has a huge arm capable of getting out of any jam with a strikeout. The Giants turn to Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez out of the lefty role. Affelt is more often used in full innings while Lopez is the LOOGY. Affeldt is equally effective against both sides, while Lopez thrives against lefties and will be used often against Jason Heyward and Brian McCann. The Giants are confident in their bullpen and will turn to it at any time in the game, sometimes very early due to offensive woes.