NLDS Game Preview: Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants (Game 1)

National League Division Series – Game 1
Thursday, October 7 – 9:37 (TBS)
Atlanta Braves (91-71) vs. San Francisco Giants (92-70)

Derek Lowe
(4.00 ERA, 3.65 xFIP, 2.83 BB/9, 6.32 K/9, 8.2 SwStr%, 58.8 GB%)
(Career vs. SF: 17 GS, 7-5, 3.02 ERA, 28 BB, 67 K)
vs.
Tim Lincecum
(3.43 ERA, 3.21 xFIP, 3.22 BB/9, 9.79 K/9, 11 SwStr%, 48.9 GB%)
(Career vs. ATL: 8 GS, 6-2, 2.89 ERA, 19 BB, 61 K)

Braves vs. Lincecum:
1. Omar Infante: 4-11, 2B, 4 K
2. Jason Heyward: 1-5, 2B, BB, 2 K
3. Derrek Lee: 6-16, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB, 4 K
4. Brian McCann: 8-21, 3 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB, 7 K
5. Alex Gonzalez: 3-7, HR, 3 RBI
6. Matt Diaz: 1-3, K
7. Brooks Conrad: 0-1, K
8. Rick Ankiel: 2-11, 2B, RBI, BB, 3 K

Giants vs. Lowe:
1. Andres Torres: 2-3, 2B, BB
2. Freddy Sanchez: 3-17, 3 K
3. Aubrey Huff: 10-38, 3 2B, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K
4. Buster Posey
5. Pat Burrell: 7-21, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB, 4 K
6. Juan Uribe: 3-6, 2B, 3 RBI, 2 BB
7. Pablo Sandoval: 4-10, K
8. Cody Ross: 3-10, 2B, RBI, 3 BB, 2 K

What to Look For:
The Braves need to be aggressive early against Tim Lincecum, but they don’t need to panic if he hits a groove after the third inning. Lincecum hasn’t pitched as deep into games as we’re used to seeing, and he has run out of gas on more than one occasion. They need to look fastball early and off-speed in the later innings. The Braves are counting on Derek Lowe to continue his hot pitching from September and keep up with Lincecum.

My Take on the Opposition:
All of the talk of Lincecum’s “down year” just shows how good the guy is. He’s sporting a 3.21 xFIP, which is right in line with his career average. A .324 BABIP explains much of Lincecum’s higher ERA at 3.43. He has maintained line drive rate at his career average of 19% and has recorded the best GB% of his career at 48.9%. Home runs are a little up, but 0.76 HR/9 is hardly terrible. The same goes for K/BB, which is 3.04, down from the last couple years but still solid. It’s true Lincecum’s WPA is down at 2.44 and WAR is down at 5.1 according to Fangraphs, but both are really good and ace material.

Lincecum is 6-2 with a 2.89 ERA in eight career starts against the Braves, including 61 strikeouts in 53 innings. The Braves saw him twice this year, the first coming in April when he struck out 10 and allowed two runs in seven innings for the win. The second start was in August, where he allowed three runs in 6.1 innings, walking three and striking out seven, and the Braves won.

The Braves have to catch Lincecum’s curve and changeup when it’s left up, and that seems to be his trouble this year when he runs into rough spots. People have talked about the decrease in velocity for his fastball and he isn’t spotting it as well, but his curveball has been well below average this season and he is very vulnerable when the changeup is left over the plate. The Braves can’t let him get into a groove after the second and third innings, but if it happens, they must catch him when he runs out of gas. Lincecum threw 212 innings this year, his lowest amount as a full-time starter.