Your Guide to the NLDS (How the Braves Match Up)
By Editorial Staff
The last two posts gave you what to expect from the Giants this series. This one is dedicated to the Braves and how they stack up. Since we have watched the team all season, I’m not going to give season stats or anything. That’s for another day. This is about matchups.
Pitching:
Derek Lowe continues to surprise us all as he was the best pitcher on the team in the last month, and according to MLB, the best pitcher in the league. He pitched two shutouts in his five starts in September, and allowed just four runs in 30.2 innings. He walked just three and struck out 29. Lowe’s GB% was 58.8% this season, and in September it was 68.1%. He has found his groove and it makes the decision to start him in game one not so crazy.
Lowe is 7-5 with a 3.02 ERA in 17 career starts against the Giants. He allowed one run on four hits in six innings against them in August, though he walked seven. He allowed two runs on five hits in 5.1 innings against them in August. Both starts were wins. While having what many consider the third or fourth best starter on the staff going in game one against Tim Lincecum looks crazy, it’s actually probably the best option besides the next guy I will mention.
Tommy Hanson is a great option for game two. He provides stability in case Lowe bombs in game one. Hanson has pitched a different game over the past couple months, sticking to groundouts and low strikeout totals. It isn’t his game, and it terrifies me, but if it continues to work in the playoffs I’m all for it. His GB% increased to 47% in September and October, much higher than his season average of 41%. This could be big against a Giants team that slugs well.
Hanson is 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA in two career starts against the Giants. He missed them in April, but he allowed one run on three hits in seven innings against them in August. He only struck out three and had more fly balls than ground balls, but he got the job done in a dominating way. Hanson facing Matt Cain is perhaps the best matchup of the series.
Tim Hudson certainly hasn’t been the same down the stretch, due to pitching 228 innings after only 184 combined the past two years. Not being able to lock up the wild card until the last game of the season caused him to have to pitch on short rest again, and it prevents him from starting game one or two, but he is now on regular rest for this start, which could prove to be a crucial one.
Hudson is 5-4 with a 3.56 ERA in 13 career starts against the Giants. He allowed two runs on three hits in seven innings against them in April. He pitched eight shutout innings on three hits in August, walking one and striking out six. He has had the Giants’ number this season and the Braves hope this continues.
Offense:
While I don’t always believe in matchup numbers, especially over the course of a career against a team in general, I still put them up as something to consider. More so than pitcher vs. team, pitcher vs. batter can be useful.
Several Braves have had success against Lincecum. Brian McCann is 8-21 with three doubles and a homer. Derrek Lee is 6-16 with two doubles. Omar Infante is 4-11 and Alex Gonzalez is 3-7. Otherwise, there isn’t much to get excited about. Jason Heyward is 1-5. Melky Cabrera and Nate McLouth are both 1-6. Rick Ankiel is 2-11. The Braves will rely on the middle of the order for production against the ace.
The Braves have terrible career numbers against Cain. Derrek Lee is 4-14 with a double and homer, but otherwise there is nothing to get excited about. Nate McLouth is 3-14 with two doubles. Brian McCann is 3-12 with two doubles. Alex Gonzalez is 0-9, Rick Ankiel and Omar Infante have two hits each in nine plate appearances. Jason Heyward is 1-2 with a double.
The Braves have seen Sanchez the fewest amount. Matt Diaz is 1-8 with six strikeouts. Brian McCann and Nate McLouth are 3-7, with a homer for McLouth. Omar Infante is 1-6 with a homer. Melky Cabrera is 2-5 with a double. Alex Gonzalez is 1-3. Jason Heyward is 0-2 with two strikeouts. If Melky sees time in this series, expect it to be here. If Heyward is slowed down in this series, expect it to be here. They will need Diaz to step up.