NLDS Game Preview: Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants (Game 2)

National League Division Series – Game 2
Friday, October 8 – 9:37 (TBS)
Atlanta Braves (0-1) vs. San Francisco Giants (1-0)

Tommy Hanson
(3.33 ERA, 4.04 xFIP, 2.49 BB/9, 7.68 K/9, 8.4 SwStr%, 41.8 GB%)
(Career vs. SF: 2 GS, 1-0, 2.57 ERA, 5 BB, 14 K)
vs.
Matt Cain
(3.14 ERA, 4.19 xFIP, 2.46 BB/9, 7.13 K/9, 8.4 SwStr%, 36.2 GB%)
(Career vs. ATL: 5 GS, 2-2, 4.03 ERA, 15 BB, 22 K)

Braves vs. Cain:
1. Omar Infante: 2-9, RBI, 2 K
2. Jason Heyward: 1-2, 2B, BB, K
3. Derrek Lee: 4-15, 2B, HR, RBI, BB, 3 K
4. Brian McCann: 3-12, 2 2B, 3 RBI, 2 BB, K
5. Melky Cabrera: 1-3, 2 RBI
6. Brooks Conrad
7. Alex Gonzalez: 0-9, BB, 4 K
8. Rick Ankiel: 2-8, 2 2B, RBI, BB, 2 K

Giants vs. Hanson:
1. Andres Torres: 1-3
2. Freddy Sanchez: 0-3
3. Aubrey Huff: 1-4, 2 RBI, 2 BB
4. Buster Posey: 0-3
5. Pat Burrell: 2-2, 2B, BB
6. Juan Uribe: 1-6, 3B, 2 K
7. Pablo Sandoval: 0-7, 2 K
8. Cody Ross: 0-7, BB, 5 K

What to Look For:
The Braves should have a little more success touching the ball against Matt Cain, who isn’t known for strikeouts but flyouts. They need to shoot for the gaps. If they start hacking again, however, Cain will get plenty of pop ups and easy outs. If you read on how Tommy Hanson‘s stuff isn’t anything special and he will run into trouble if he gives up a lot of flyballs, it means the writer hasn’t watched Hanson pitch in a while, if ever. Hanson’s GB% was much higher in September and he has turned strikeouts into groundouts. The combination of low strikeout numbers and a low GB% over the course of the season makes it look as if he is mere average on the mound, but it doesn’t show how he has pitched lately. Hanson is well suited for facing the Giants in San Francisco. If he gets his grounders, look for another great performance.

My Take on the Opposition:
Cain has always lived with low ERAs and rather high xFIPs. He has a 3.14 ERA and 4.19 xFIP this season, recording a .260 BABIP and 75.3% LOB%. Despite this, it is Cain’s best xFIP of his career, resulting in the best WAR of his career at four wins. His BB/9 was the best of his career at 2.46, which probably helped him take the next step more than anything considering he lives off flyouts. His GB% remained at his career average of 36%. His FB% saw a spike to 46.6%, but much of that is due to a big increase in infield fly balls. You would think Cain would thrive off pitching in a spacious home field, but he allowed 10 homers at home compared to 12 on the road. He throws a lot of fastballs and an equal amount of changeups and curveballs. His changeup has long been the more reliable pitch.

Cain is 2-2 with a 4.03 ERA in five career starts against the Braves. They have made him work and haven’t been punched out too many times against him. They missed him the first time around but caught him in August, when he allowed three runs in six innings and was tagged with a loss.

Cain has been a model of consistency, constantly going at least six innings in most of his starts and ending at 223 innings. This is especially the case lately because he hasn’t walked more than one in a start since August 7, when he walked two. The Braves can’t wait for walks, they have to be aggressive and go for extra base hits. Sitting on the fastball is their best bet.