NLDS Game Preview: San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves (Game 3)
By Editorial Staff
National League Division Series – Game 3
Sunday, October 10 – 4:37 (TBS)
San Francisco Giants (1-1) vs. Atlanta Braves (1-1)
Jonathan Sanchez
(3.07 ERA, 4.11 xFIP, 4.47 BB/9, 9.54 K/9, 9.8 SwStr%, 41.5 GB%)
(Career vs. ATL: 7 G, 5 GS, 1-3, 6.00 ERA, 10 BB, 31 K)
vs.
Tim Hudson
(2.83 ERA, 3.87 xFIP, 2.91 BB/9, 5.47 K/9, 6.9 SwStr%, 64.1 GB%)
(Career vs. SF: 13 GS, 5-4, 3.56 ERA, 25 BB, 58 K)
Braves vs. Sanchez:
Matt Diaz: 1-8, RBI, 2 BB, 6 K
Troy Glaus: 2-8, 2B, RBI
Brian McCann: 3-7, RBI, BB, 2 K
Nate McLouth: 3-7, HR, 2 RBI, K
Omar Infante: 1-6, HR, RBI, BB, 2 K
Melky Cabrera: 2-5, 2B, BB
Alex Gonzalez: 1-3, RBI
Derrek Lee: 0-0, 3 BB
Rick Ankiel: 0-2, K
Jason Heyward: 0-2, 2 K
Giants vs. Hudson:
Pat Burrell: 7-34, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 7 K
Aubrey Huff: 7-22, 2B, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K
Freddy Sanchez: 3-21, 2B, 3 K
Cody Ross: 2-15, 3 K
Pablo Sandoval: 1-6, RBI
Juan Uribe: 0-5
Buster Posey: 1-2
Andres Torres: 0-3, 2 K
What to Look For:
Of the three matchups in this series, this is the one I felt best about. The advantage of waiting until the last day to clinch is having your ace take the mound in the third game of the NLDS. Luckily, the Braves are tied after two, and having Tim Hudson on the mound at home with a chance to go up in the series is huge. Hudson has good numbers against the Giants, and only a couple hitters have had success against him. Of course, it doesn’t mean a thing if the Braves can’t back Hudson. With Jonathan Sanchez, you never know what you’re going to get. He can struggle with control or he can strike out 10 in just a few innings. The Braves have hit him in the past and hopefully it will continue.
I will be at the game so no in-game tweets on my end. Hopefully I can provide some photos when I get back. Here’s to hoping the Braves are up in the series by the next time you hear from me.
My Take on the Opposition:
Sanchez is a do-or-die type of pitcher, walking a ton (4.47 BB/9) and striking out a ton (9.54 K/9), while giving up his share of homers at times. Sanchez has by far the lowest ERA of his career at 3.07, but his xFIP remained around his average at 4.11. A .262 BABIP and 79.5 LOB% explain this. He was perhaps more valuable to the team this year, but his stuff and his numbers didn’t really change. Sanchez established his fastball better this year and worked off it with a slider that is solid, but his changeup remains nothing more than something to give hitters to look at. Like Cain, he lives off flyouts and is more prone to home runs, but he’s a pure strikeout pitcher who is capable of racking up double digits in no time.
Sanchez is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA in five starts and seven total appearances against the Braves. He has 31 strikeouts in 27 innings, but the Braves have scored 18 runs in that amount. He didn’t go past 4.1 innings in either of his two starts against the Braves this season. In April, he allowed three runs on seven hits in 4.1 innings, walking two and striking out six. In August, he allowed four runs on five hits in four innings, walking three and striking out four.
As I’ve said, Sanchez will get his share of strikeouts but will give up a ton of fly balls and possibly home runs. The Braves need to sit on the fastball and be aggressive. They will strike out, but it only takes a couple shots to the right center gap.