Should Moylan Be Counted On?

As was pointed out here at Tomahawk Take, the Braves now must look at the last two major areas of concern for 2011, the bullpen and the bench. There seems to be universal agreement that the arsenal of young power arms that the Braves will take to battle needs a calming veteran presence. Since there’s no Billy Wagner around, the question is who should fill that role. An obvious candidate is Peter Moylan, but is he a good candidate?

Moylan is a very interesting subject to evaluate. Before his Tommy John surgery, I thought that there were times that Moylan approached being unhittable. From a scouting perspective, this seemed supportable. When he was “on”, Moylan threw harder than anyone in the game that threw from his angle. His low-sidearm fastball often sat at 94-95 MPH. With his mid-80’s curve and slider that started out looking a lot like the fastball, his repertoire was unique. You can’t practice against what you never see. In 2007, arguably his best year and his last full year before his injury, his traditional stats were supported by advanced metrics. He was really good. As Walter Brennan was fond of saying in the classic TV western “The Guns of Will Sonnett”, “No brag, just fact”.

Moylan, injured very early in the 2008 season, returned quicker than most, returning for opening day 2009 and actually making 80 appearances that season. He followed that with a similar workload in 2010. While his performance appeared to be similar with a quick glance at traditional stats, those of us that watched him every day knew he wasn’t the same pitcher. The biggest difference was in the velocity of his fastball, which now sat at 89-90 versus the 94-95 before. He also struggled with location, often missing inside to right-handed hitters. The differential between his hard stuff and his off-speed pitches slipped from the traditional sweet spot of 10 MPH to a not-nearly-as-effective 7-8 MPH. While his ERA remained just below 3.00, his expected FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching), sort of an expected ERA based on how he actually pitched, ballooned to 4.08 in 2010. Graphically, this chart, taken from Fan Graphs, provide a great visual of what was happening.

The question for the Braves, then, is what should we expect in 2011? Bill James is less than optimistic, projecting an ERA of 3.71. While not horrific, not what you want from a 7th or 8th inning pitcher, and not what you want for $2 to 3 million (a guess at Moylan’s salary as a second year arbitration eligible player). I believe that his performance will be better than that. I base this optimism on these factors:

• Moylan will have two full years post-surgery.  Generally speaking, pitchers regain full velocity in this time-frame (and sometimes even a little more).  A simple regression shows a gradual return in velocity as well.   If he again throws over 93 MPH with regularity, there’s no reason to doubt that his performance will return.
• There’s reason to hope that his usage patterns will be a little better with Bobby Cox no longer on the bench.  He shouldn’t be used 80 times, and I don’t think Fredi Gonzales will.
• Moylan’s personality seems well-suited for a mentoring role.  He will have no problem sharing the spotlight with the youngsters.
• There’s no reason to believe he will be anything but healthy.  While he’s 32, his semi-mandatory elbow surgery is behind him and his lifetime innings are still low.

If I were Frank Wren, I’d lock down Moylan for two years. Given the totality of the circumstances, he can probably buy low. Combined with the lack of “no-brainer” alternatives, I think this signing would help narrow down the problem areas left to just the bench.