More Thoughts On Mike Minor

Hello once more from the frosty northland!

This article actually started as a reply to a comment that Matthew made on Mike Minor and Fred’s post on the Rookie Of The Year voting. In effect, Matthew’s comment was that most people were wrong about Mike Minor when he was selected (with the majority thinking it was a bad pick), and that the scout who picked Minor should be applauded. Since the reply was taking on a life of its own, I decided to make it an article where it might get more attention. So here goes:

Matthew (and now everyone else, too),

I wasn’t here when Minor was selected, so I’m not sure what the guys around here thought at the time. I can tell you that I thought then and continue to think now that the Braves selected someone they could afford with that pick, not the person they thought was the best athlete available.

With Minor, what appears to me to have happened is that he mysteriously found 5 MPH on his fastball. For someone who had pitched as long as Minor to do that at his age was very unusual. I don’t think the scout involved could have seen that coming, and I didn’t see any quotes at the time saying they expected him to get stronger, fill out, or any other code words to the effect that they thought he’d suddenly improve. No, I think the Braves drafted someone they thought could be big-league ready quickly, and someone they thought could be successful at the back end of a rotation. I’m not belittling the pick, as this level of talent doesn’t grow on trees. More-so, what I’m saying is that Minor is a pleasant surprise. I think the Braves scouting did its job, even if Minor hadn’t found the turbo-boost. The fact that he did probably makes the Braves scouting appear to be better than it was.

Going further, though, I’m not one who is sold on Minor actually being a top-of-the-rotation talent. I think that he is, at best, a number three starter in a league-average rotation (again, no small potatoes feat, but not Nolan Ryan or even Tom Glavine). This is based a lot on having watched him pitch many times, and on his full history. He hasn’t shown me that he can go deep into games, and his control is still a work in progress. Although he pitched in some bad luck in Atlanta last year with a BAbip of .382, a lot of times he threw stuff up there that looked like it should have been hit! I also think that there is an intangible element to being an elite pitcher. It’s almost a “know it when you see it” type of thing. I haven’t got the feeling that he has this in his makeup. Having said all this, I would hedge my thinking a little by saying that pitchers in general are almost impossible to predict accurately, and that left-handers historically mature later than right-handers. Obviously, Minor is a late-bloomer. But what if what we’ve seen is about the top of his curve (no pun intended)?

I could be wrong, but with the multitude of talented young pitchers the Braves have in their system, it would not surprise me at all to see Minor traded for outfield talent. The Braves system is very thin there, and Minor is a lefty with a perceived high ceiling. Wren seems to like to make mid-season moves. What if Tehran looks ready to go and the Braves center-field picture is still bleak at mid-season? If Minor pitches reasonably well, he could be traded then, if not sooner. Obviously this would come with a significant risk, but given the Braves other options for the fifth starter (don’t forget that Medlin could be ready in September), is that risk bigger than having an automatic out whenever the center-fielder hits?

Just my thoughts. How about yours?