Some 2011 Braves Home Run Poll Support Data

Hello again from the fun, sun capital of the Midwest, southeast Michigan, where the state lotto is based on how many days will elapse before there is a verifiable sighting of a really large yellow sphere in the sky. Some residents even believe the whole thing is a myth perpetrated by the government to boost lottery sales!

But I digress. Watching the early results on the

TomahawkTake poll on 2011 Braves homers

has led me to believe that some of the pessimists out there might need a little more data to start to believe in this team’s power potential. And who better to provide that to you than your friends here at TomahawkTake?

The first morsel I provide might even be the most compelling: those monster mashers that comprised the Braves offense way, way, way back in 2007 actually hit the ball out of the park 176 times! You’re remembering correctly; this was post-steroids. And get this: no one on the team hit as many as 30! And only Chipper and Andruw hit over 20! The team ranked fourth in the NL East in homers! Milwaukee led the NL with 231!

In 2006, the last year the team had significant power, they led the league with 222. But once you got past Andruw’s 41, the next highest Brave only hit 32. 73 from the top two power hitters might not top the top two Braves total in 2011, and if it does it’ll likely be by less than 10, in my opinion.

I could go on and on. The team hit 185 in 2005 and the second highest total on the team was 21. How about 235 dingers in 2003? In fact, almost 40% of the time since 1955 the Braves have hit 174 or more home runs.

So what does this all mean? Maybe nothing. But it might mean that some of you are being lulled into conservatism based on the really low power output of recent vintage. I’ve built an estimate two ways: once by looking at team totals, league totals, changes in team personnel and league personnel, and other macro factors, yhen a second time by going player by player and building a “micro level” forecast. I think there is room for more joy in Mudville (a small town near me with lots of melting snow 🙂 ).

Take another look yourself. Vote again on a “clean” machine if you’ve changed your opinion. And certainly let us know your thoughts.