Should The Braves Trade Derek Lowe?

Hello again everyone! I’m coming to you today from sunny Michigan, where it’s just warm enough to start all the snow melting. It feels just like Hawaii did for the last ten days (except 50 degrees cooler, no palm trees or beaches, and I have to work)!

Checking the pulse of the ‘Net today, I see that several bloggers in NY are saying that the Yankees approached the Braves about acquiring Tim Hudson. According to the bloggers, the Braves essentially said “No thank you, would you instead be interested in Derek Lowe”? Again, according to the bloggers, the Yankees said no thank you, but not for the reasons you might think. The bloggers say that the package of prospects the Braves wanted in return was too high. I thought to myself, “What? Are these guys crazy? For a year the Braves have been trying to get anyone else to take Lowe for NO prospects and the acquiring team taking on a portion of Lowe’s remaining salary of $15 million for each of the next two seasons”.

So this sets up an interesting discussion topic: Should the Braves trade Derek Lowe, or even more specifically, should the Braves trade Lowe to the Yankees? Let’s think about this proposition for a moment.

First, let’s look at the situation in Atlanta. If any team in baseball has a potential surplus of starting pitchers, it’s the Braves. They have Hudson, Hanson, Jurrjens, and Lowe inked in as the starting four. The number five slot is up for grabs, apparently between Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy, and the smoking hull of what used to be Rodrigo Lopez. And, oh yeah, they have arguably the number one starting pitching prospect in baseball, Julio Tehran, who could be ready for the majors by mid-season (and the optimists among us think even sooner). Then there’s Kenshin Kawakami, who, while overpaid at $6.7 million and “temporarily assigned” to AA Mississippi awaiting the location of a trading partner, has pitched better than his record would indicate and in my opinion is better than most number five starters in the majors today. And this list doesn’t even touch on the other prospects quickly coming up through the ranks like Vizcaino and Delgado. And these are really the “A” team prospects; there’s a bunch more behind them.

So, I think it’s fair to say that the Braves are in a position to trade from strength. If there’s one question mark there, though, it’s this: forgetting long-term for a moment, how much surplus does the 2011 team really have? In my opinion, unless you are willing to start two rookies out of your five, or welcome Kawakami back into the major league fold, not too much. And starting two rookies is a strategy better suited for teams in building mode than for contenders. By mid-season the Braves will likely be in a stronger position, as they’ll know what they have in a number 5 starter and will also know what they have in the guys who lost out in the derby for that spot, as they’ll likely be pitching every fifth day in Gwinnett. And all the prospects will be more seasoned, with Tehran perhaps ready for the show.

On the other side of the equation, what do the Yankees have? The uncharitable amongst us might use the word “mess” or worse to describe their situation. They have C.C. Sabathia, Phil Hughes, and A.J. Burnett, which is maybe two and a half starters. They have Joba Chamberlain, but the last I heard he was going to be in the bullpen no matter what. Then they have prospects, but few if any that are ready for the big league rotation now. I’d say that they are as motivated to land a proven starter as any team in baseball. And they have the means to pay. And it makes little sense to me that the holdup with a Lowe trade would be over prospects, as the Braves haven’t been looking for much there if their trading partner picked up Lowe’s salary.

OK, so we have one team desperate and the other team that would ideally like to wait until mid-season to make up their mind. To me the issue comes down to this: What exactly do you have in the 2011 version of Derek Lowe? Will he most closely resemble the 4+ ERA pitcher that everyone wanted to dump or the 1+ ERA pitcher that basically pitched the Braves into the playoffs in 2010?

Now would be the time to turn to the numbers. Obviously there is no way that Lowe is going to have an ERA below 2 for a season. But will he have an ERA below 4? Close to 3? Let’s see.

Obviously ERA isn’t a perfect stat or even necessarily the best stat. But used in conjunction with a couple of other parameters I think it gives you a pretty good idea if a pitcher can still get guys out. The first of those parameters is did the pitcher just get lucky or unlucky. The next is whether the other guys consistently hit the ball hard off him. The next is whether he kept the ball in the park. And the last is whether he issued a ton of free passes. I won’t bore you (and simultaneously prove to you that I can read the stats over at Baseball Prospectus!), but I’ll tell you in summary that Lowe has actually pitched in some bad luck (or bad defense) as a Brave, as evidenced by a BAbip of .320 as a Brave. He keeps the ball in the park, giving up less than a home run a game, and his walks and OPSa are good. Plus, there is little to no evidence of systematic erosion of skills; for example, his strikeout rate in 2010 of 6.3/9 innings is better than his career rate of 5.9. And none of these numbers assume that he’ll keep up his torrid performance of September 2010.

So, what’s the verdict? For me, in a very close decision that could be changed if someone made me “an offer I can’t refuse”, I’d hold on to Lowe. I think trading him right now risks crashing the 2011 party before it even gets started. Unless we get a major upgrade in the outfield or shortstop (and I don’t mean prospects, so I don’t think the Yankees can provide this), I see nothing that will help the 2011 team coming out of the trade. I think Lowe is better than he looked in 2009, and certainly as good and probably better than he looked in 2010. Having said all that, the Yankees are likely desperate, and the Cardinals might be heading the same way. They might not be desperate when the Braves ideally would like to talk trade. I’d listen for that special offer. How about you?