The Pitching Race After Cut One

A few weeks ago I predicted that the staff would be Hudson, Hanson, Jurrjens , Lowe, Minor ,Proctor, Venters, Linebrink, Moylan, O’Flaherty, Sherrill and Kimbrel . So far all of our primary pitchers this spring have been superb with Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty on top of their game.While Jair Jurrjens, Craig Kimbrell and Peter Moylan have had a bad inning here or two they have thrown well enough not to cause any real worry. Linebrink and Proctor had their struggles early but shown improvement in recent outings and should break camp with the team. In spite of a mediocre spring trying to adjust his arm slot, George Sherrill will be there too because he holds lefties to a .194 BA and can strike out the lefties for whom no one will pinch hit, like say Ryan Howard or Chase Uttley. The question becomes who – if anyone – fills the role of long man? While I personally would like to see the youth, power and desire of Marek, Beachy and Martinez start the season with us I’ve seen nothing to indicate that any will actually make the cut.

Steve Marek and Cristhian Martinez have impressed enough to make them real challengers for a bullpen position. Marek displayed power and control during his relief stints but has averaged under 2 innings per appearance the last two years.  Martinez impressed in spot starts and long relief last year after coming over for the Marlins and that might give him the edge over Beachy who would gain from regular starts at Gwinette (if he doesn’t earn the 5th spot of course) and Lopez or Kawakami. The trouble is to slot any of them into the pen someone would have to go. We know that isn’t Venters, Moylan, Kimbrell, or O’Flaherty and Linebrink was a trade acquisition so one would think he’s certain to stay.Since I’ve just made a case for Sherrill I think he stays too. That leaves Proctor and I think he stays too. Over his career he’s been equally adept at getting out righties and lefties and his situational experience with the Yankees is a strong intangible, far better than that provided by Sherrill or Linebrink. Now 2 years removed from TJ surgery Proctor looks like he’s getting back to his old form and he’s out of options meaning sending him to Gwinette would require passing him through waivers and I don’t think he’d make it. Since everyone else would and I believe the Braves want Proctor around I believe we start the season without a long man. We’ll be in a 5 man rotation immediately and we will hope no one gets shelled early forcing us to use those short guys back to back over consecutive days.  Speaking of the 5th starter, who will that be?

The battle everyone has been watching this spring is between Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy for that 5th starters spot. Early on Minor had some control issues and gave up a few hit but both have now settled in to a similar rhythm, so close in fact that both yesterday went 5 innings allowing two hits and no runs. The Braves preferred the left-handed Minor last fall and unless there’s a significant event between now and opening day they will again. Lefties are a premium commodity and Minor is a good one. After an improved off-season conditioning program and with 160+ innings under his belt last year he’s ready to make the jump to the big team a permanent one. His minor league stats in his 120+ innings – 3.44 ERA, 1.155 WHIP, 10.95K/9 and 3.17 k/bb ratio – show a man who controls the strike zone, keeps the ball in the park and can get a strike out to get himself out of trouble. While his 40.1 inning performance when called up in September – 5.98 ERA, 1.574 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 and 3.9 k/bb – wasn’t quite as impressive one should remember that it was his first full year in pro ball (he had only 14 innings in 09) and he had never thrown that many innings before.  Having said he was tired when called up, he still averaged striking out a man every inning and walking only 2 a game. The other factor giving Minor the edge is our opposition.

The Phillies are a significantly left handed lineup and the Braves without Minor are a completely right handed staff. While lefties are not particularly a problem for our staff  – in 2010 Huddy (2.33 BA), Lowe (287 BA), Hanson (.226BA), Jurrjens (2.30 ERA in 2009 – injury skewed last year’s numbers to 2.94) a lefty in the mix at least gives the rotation a different look and a strike out lefty may force a pinch hitter that you wouldn’t get against a right hander. So, I think my starting rotation prediction is still on target. The good news is that whether it’s Minor or Beachy it probably isn’t perennial under achiever Rodrigo Lopez who will end up at Gwinette as a third or fourth backup starter option or at some point be included in a trade.

All of these options provide backups for the Braves as it is rare that a team uses the same 12 pitchers all season long. Injuries happen and the Braves pitching looks deep enough to withstand the short term – and possibly long term – effect of such things. They also provide us a trade chip or two should we run into an injury in an area where our depth of front line player’s isn’t as strong.