Old Style Braves or New – In 10 days we’ll know

Remember what it was like in school the last week before summer break? That’s the way I  I feel now. Let’s play ball already!!! You’re thinking it I’m sure and most of the players – those with guaranteed roster spots anyway – are too. Others are hoping that when they take the field today  the magic that got them signed, made them a prospect and generated all that hype will reappear. There’s been lots of stories about who will and won’t make the cut, get the job or be the man; I know, I’ve written a few. So I won’t bore you with detailed statistics (yea I know – why not you do every other post.) I will however point out one of my adopted baseball truths: You are your baseball card until you aren’t. After a few years as a pro your track record tells us what to expect and now that steroids are gone we can once again expect that. That goes for organizations as well; the Yankees will spend egregious amounts of money and just cut their losses if that player fails to produce. The Angels will spend money but won’t give in to excessively long contracts – think John Lackey and Carl Crawford. The Cubs will …well they’ll be the Cubs. You get the idea.  For the Braves that’s meant – at least in the Cox/Schuerholz era – build from within, pitching first, don’t spend big, pitching and defense wins divisions, trust your veterans, character counts and pitching-pitching-pitching.

In his article over at Fangraphs ( read it here)  Eno Sarris asserts that “. . .the contenders for any starting role have left a trail of data behind them. . .” and even with some improvement in off season conditioning etc., a few at bats, innings pitched, fumbled grounders or misplayed fly balls don’t really change much. Mr. Sarris also contends – and I agree – that team leadership know and have decided most roster questions before spring training begins. Add to that something I knew – we all know – but I never saw broadcasted until last week; very little really changes due to spring training positional battles unless someone really blows their socks off or fails completely to perform. So it takes a noticeable and consistent improvement for a player to change their minds. Even with such an explosive spring, that player often starts off in the minors. ask Evan Longoria. So let’s look at the Braves.

At the end of last season most of us would have said Minor would be the fifth starter, Freeman would be at first base, centerfield would be McLouth’s job to lose and Kimbrel would close. Most also hoped that Hinske would return and Chipper would heal and play like Chipper; ditto Prado. After the playoffs the fans wanted Conrad exiled and of course most wanted Kawakami traded for a new pitching machine and a box of baseballs but, neither of those things happened. We needed a right handed power bat but that resolved it self quickly when the Marlin’s smoked something really odd and traded him – in division – for a utility player who had an exceptional year and a wild. left handed reliever. By December 31st the Braves were functionally done. It took a little bit to bring Hinske back but other than that, done. The questions to be answered were; who replaces Infante, Diaz/Cabrera/Ankiel, Farnsworth, Saito and Wagner (assuming he stays retired and remembers to mail the paperwork.) The answers were: Linebrink for Saito, Sherrill for Wagner, Proctor for Farnsworth, Mather for Infante and the possibility Shafer would reemerge.  Leaving us with a roster (with 12 pitchers) looking something like this.

What’s changed or will change? Very little.

Ed Lucas signed from the Royals as a minor league free agent is giving Conrad and Hernandez a run for their money. The things in his favor are his ability to play 7 positions well (he’s even caught once or twice), good speed and a strong spring at the plate.  Hernandez has had an ok spring too but he plays only infield (really SS & 3B) and the Braves have never been convinced of his work ethic and may feel it’s time for a change. Conrad’s switch hitting is a plus but he plays only 2nd and 3rd; many shudder at the thought of him playing the field at all but the Braves players don’t seem to worry about it. Last year’s late inning heroics were memorable but seldom count in the long run; Francisco Cabrera got only 93 at bats after driving in Sid Bream in 91.

Joe Mather hasn’t impressed at the plate so far and is a prime candidate for the ax particularly in Lucas makes the team. It’s hard to see how he fills a need anywhere. Meanwhile Jordan Shafer continues to disappoint. In an interview yesterday during the practice session game (it was awfully boring) with the Mets, John Schuerholz was asked about Jordan Shafer. He said nice things about Shafer’s potential and getting his stroke back but ended all that praise by saying, “at some time in the future.” What I heard was, “If he can ever remember how to hit in Gwinnett he may be back at some point. Otherwise we have this Lipka kid converting to center field. . .”  The poor hitting or Shafer and ‘Joey Duds” (Mather) give an outside shot to this year’s only stand out every day player not on the starting 25; Wilken Ramirez.

Wilken Ramirez is that 5 tool can’t miss Tiger prospect that kept missing. He missed  for so long the Tigers virtually gave him away. Currently he’s having the best spring on his career (see no numbers to back that up but I did link you) and adds something the Braves seriously lack; he’s a base stealer. He and Matt Young whom I favored over the winter, offer a stolen base option that’s been missing as well as outfield cover for the Braves. That Ramirez is right handed and beating the ball the death in spring training gives him the advantage over Matt Young. At 26 he’s just hitting his prime; players’ performance peaks between 26 and 30. Is he’s really figured out how to remain patient, manage the strike zone and deliver the power everyone always expected him to have, he might just be this year’s surprise. I really hope he is, we could use some added excitement and I don’t see one anywhere else on the roster doing that.

I still think Mike Minor is the fifth starter and Beachy goes to Gwinnett, no change there. Scott Proctor’s been bad this spring and George Sherrill even worse. Both have been wild in and out of the zone against lesser hitters than they will face once the season starts. With Martinez and even Kawakami looking better and impressive Marek waiting in the wings it’s easy to wonder how either can break camp with the team.

For the past 20 years Bobby and The Braves management would have taken  Mather (out of options and he’s a good guy we don’t want to lose because we just signed him), Conrad (good old Raw Dog) and Hernandez for the bench. Proctor ( a good experience Vet who provides our youngsters some insight) or Martinez (he did ok for me last year) and Sherrill (I can always use an experienced lefty) in the pen. They’ve produced in the past at the big league level while Ramirez never quite has. The fifth starter would be a coin toss but Minor would probably eek is out because we paid him so much to sign.  Even Chipper knows that. When he was asked who it should be he said Beachy but, he went of to tell Dave O’Brien, “You know as well as I do that the Braves want Mike Minor to win that fifth spot.”

If it were I (call me Fredi, lets talk about starting your dynasty) I’d have Lucas and Ramirez joining Hinske and Ross on the bench. In the pen last week I said Proctor and Sherrill make the cut. Proctor’s continued unreliability means that I’d now say Martinez replaces him. While Sherrill – even though he’s been worse than Proctor – will still make the cut; he’s left handed and that frequently makes up for a multitude of sins. Besides the Phillies all hit left handed don’t they?

Is there really a new ear see in Braves baseball built on youth, speed, skill and versatility or is it still the same old one a few rust holes patched and a new paint job? In 10 days we’ll know.