Some Offensive Thoughts Ten Days Into The Season

Hello again everyone from what feels like the open “plains” of Texas, as we’re being whipped by 20-30 MPH winds with gusts north of 50. Of course, when we had those kind of winds when I lived in Texas it was usually a lot warmer than 35 degrees, the current temp here in Michigan!

A night like this one is good for contemplation, at least. Since Fred has already jumped on a player by player review, I won’t rehash all the things he went through in his article. What I’d like to do is step back a bit and evaluate things on a more macro level. I hope this will complement and supplement what you’ve read here and elsewhere. I’ll focus on the offense here, and perhaps follow with something on pitching. So, here goes:

First of all, the Braves have effectively spotted the Phillies three and a half games to start the season. I know it’s early and the baseball season is a marathon, but this concerns me more than it normally would. A lot more. Why? Well, first of all, I think these teams are very evenly matched. I don’t see the Phillies imploding. Much like the Braves teams of the 1990’s, I also don’t think the Phillies will have many long losing streaks, as their rotation is too strong to let that happen. Further, the Braves blew a chance to make a statement to the Phillies during this first matchup. Instead, the Phillies proved to themselves that they could take two out of three from the Braves, in hostile territory, and with key players injured. Finally, with the youth the Braves have at key positions, it would not take a lot to damage the confidence level of the team and lose that important swagger. Taking game three would have been a huge positive, but it was not to be.

The second observation is that the Braves really have hit well in only one game so far. They’ve had a few fair days, but mostly they’ve hit below expectations. As Fred pointed out, historically the Braves have feasted on number five starters. To be fair, ALL teams do their big damage against the back end of the rotation. I’ve looked at this across leagues and across eras, and it holds. The difference is that the good hitting teams don’t go into the deep freeze against the front-end starters. Sure, they sometimes get shut down, but mostly they do fairly well, winning about as often as losing. I know it’s early, but this team is really struggling against the good starters. The team thus far is also continuing the Atlanta tradition of showing Southern Hospitality to strangers, failing to hit against pitchers they’re seeing for the first time or two. The Braves have to address this issue. Going back to point one, they can’t afford to wait long contemplating their options. And, as a side note, no, it wasn’t Terry Pendleton’s fault (even though I thought he was a terrible hitting coach, which is a topic for another day).

My third point is related to the first two as well: Chipper Jones will try to take this team on his back to fix these troubles. I hope he can do it, but he’s not 29 anymore. Unlike his younger days, Chipper can now get into bad habits when he tries to carry the team. And his swing is so mechanically sound that it is truly hard to diagnose his problems. In my opinion, his trouble comes from swinging too hard, which disrupts his timing. He gets top-hand happy, rolling over the top of the ball and pulling grounders. This seems to be most evident from the left-hand side. I won’t get into how he attempts to correct the problem yet, but be on the lookout for this. I think we’ve seen a bit of it already. Let’s hope the lineup starts clicking so that this becomes moot.

Finally, I’ll stop by saying that I’m still confident in the team. I’m amazed at the number of bloggers and fans that are throwing in the towel already. Knucleheads! I think the players can see what’s happening, management can see what’s happening, and both are going to step up and suck it up. What do you think?