Lineups, Numbers and the Real World Part II
By Fred Owens
In part one I provided examples of lineups that fit the sabermetricians formula for maximum run production. You’ll see in the illustration below that the lineup that produces the most theoretical runs (H) isn’t that far from the one Fredi Gonzales started the year with (A) in structure but more than 60 runs a year and about half a run a game better in production. The lineup he put out last night is –theoretically anyway – 50+ runs better. The problem with all of these lineups and the one that gave Bobby trouble and continues to give cause Fredi issues is quite simply lack of a leadoff hitter. The Braves have no one ideally suited for the leadoff spot.
The Scott McKinney article I linked to yesterday says specifically for relief pitchers “First, who cares what relievers want” and implies for everyday players “A star player may not like being moved from the third spot in the lineup to the first, or from second to fifth.. . These worries certainly wouldn’t lead me to turn down the opportunity to give my team an additional win.” that you can simply put a player in a position, tell him it will generate more wins for the team and they will perform the way their career numbers predict. That simply isn’t true. First of all you’re managing people on the field not numbers in a fantasy league. People have emotions and opinions. Like it or not those do effect the way they play the game. Simply saying go do it doesn’t work. Besides, lineup position directly effects a players numbers not only because it changes the pitches thrown to him but also because all players are not comfortable in all lineup positions. Nick Swisher is a great example of this.
Swisher’s best years in Oakland he hit second. In 2007 he had a .263/.375/.484/.859 slash line there. That was good enough for the White Sox to trade Gio Gonzales to the A’s for Swisher and increase his payday from the $400,000 he made in Oakland to $3.6 million. In2008 he mostly hit seventh, had a line of .235/.335/.444/.779 and was considered a huge mistake. The Sox traded him to the Yankees for minor 3 league prospects and Wilson Betemit. Two of those prospects are still in AAA ball while Betemit and Kanekoa Texeira are now with Kansas City. In other words, get this guy out of here now. In 2009 with the Yankees Swisher bounced around the lineup but when hitting in the second spot his line looked a lot like the one from Oakland ; 250/.356/.474/.829. In 2010 the Yankees mostly hit him in the two hole and his line in that spot – .275/.348/.484/.832 – returned to the one that earned him the big contract. Was it the New York air? Uh, no. If the air did it Javier Vasquez would have won 20 games. Perhaps it was sitting in the same locker room as Derek Jeter? I don’t think so. If that was it Lance Berkman and Randy Winn might still be in pinstripes. More than likely it was his return to the second spot in the order in front of a dangerous hitter where he got more fastballs to hit.
The fact is baseball players hit well in some spots and not as well in others. The numbers that determine who the best hitters are come from the best hitters being put in lineup spot that suits their abilities and personality. Changing the lineup spot and for most (not all) hitters is like hiring a carpenter to install your central air conditioning. The job will get done but the end result may not be what you want. But, I agree our lineup needs work and looking at the numbers might give a clue where a tweak or two can be made. I know where I think things should be changed. I’ll get that out here soon. In the mean time, what do you think?
Sabermetric Lineup theoretical results.
Monday’s Lineup