This is Bill James. We’re going to be examining Mr. James’ projections for most of the everyday Braves’ on the 2012 club. Today we’ll take a look at Dan Uggla. All projection data gathered from the fine folks at FanGraphs.
Bill James 2012 Dan Uggla Projection:
161 Games Played, 601 AB, 151 hits, 32 doubles, 1 triples, 33 HR, 95 runs, 92 RBI, 72 BB, 158 K, 2 SB, .278 AVG, .337/.473/.810
Now here’s an example of a projection where I am left feeling like Mr. James took last year’s production, added a few walks; and called it a day.
Even the most casual Braves fans know that it was the tale of two seasons for their biggest off-season acquisition last year. Uggla turned it on in the second half and finished with pretty respectable numbers. Last season’s doldrums led to a .311/.453/.764 slash line of production for Uggla. If he rebounds to the .473 slugging to this season, I think it’s too light of a rebound. If Uggla rebounds at all, it will be closer to his peak slugging seasons of .508 and .514, in my opinion.
While I think most fans would sign up for the .810 OPS figure that Bill James predicts for Uggla in 2012 right now, I think there’s more in store for you. I think Uggla has a few more dingers and doubles to pad the total and hits for more average in general. This makes for a big rebound season coming for Uggla in 2012.