Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE

Comparing Performance and Clutchness: Offense

When evaluating offensive performance, most WAR systems use a mix of OBP and SLG to determine a run value for performance.  This is usually situation-independent, meaning there is no weighing of high-leverage plate appearances.  WPA is Win Probability Added, which takes the game situation fully into account when determining a win value.  In this post, I will use wRC+, a linear-weights method of determining runs created, then comparing it to league average.  League average wRC+, like OPS+, is 100, while league average WPA is zero.  Here is how the Braves’ starting eight rates:

Bourn 110 124 -0.23 0.85
Prado 102 116 0.67 1.00
Uggla 101 119 0.96 0.99
Freeman 100 116 0.10 0.98
Heyward 86 132 0.36 0.95
McCann 82 104 0.48 1.00
Pastornicky 70 89 0.38 0.85
Jones 55 109 0.22 0.99

First, I’ll point out the leverage values of Bourn and Pastornicky.  Average leverage is 1.00, so both have plate appearances averaging less importance than most.  This is expected, due to the lack of baserunners generally on base for the leadoff and 8th hitters.  Those two also have reverse clutch scores, Bourn having an above-average wRC+ but a negative WPA, and Pastornicky vice versa.  Uggla has provided nearly a full win offensively, with Prado also providing 2/3 of a win.  I will say it’s really nice to see all the three-digit wRC+’s column and positive WPA’s.

Tags: Braves Clutch FanSided Popular