Braves Begin 2nd Half Hosting Mets
One-half a game apart in the standings, the Braves and Mets meet in Atlanta to begin the second half of the season. Along with their records, their starting rotations are also falling apart, whether it’s due to injury or poor performance. You can’t put too much stock in three games in July, but this could be a great stepping stone to a push for the division title.
Game 1 – Friday 7:35 ET – Tim Hudson vs. Chris Young
The Braves’ best remaining starting pitcher begins the series. Hudson has had a nice season, though he’s been a bit lucky on the home run front, allowing 6.6% of flyballs as HR, about 60% of the league average. Opposing his 55% GB rate will be Young and his 55% FB rate. Only making his seventh start of the season (amazingly his highest total since ’09), Young looks to continue the good start to his season, sporting a 3.41 ERA and 3.63 FIP. The biggest improvement he has shown is the low walk rate, currently at 5% after five straight years in double digits.
Game 2 – Saturday 4:05 ET – Tommy Hanson vs. R.A. Dickey
Hanson, despite his drastically worse repertoire, has been alright this season, aside from keeping the ball in the park. Dickey has been much more than alright, posting a 2.40 ERA, 2.76 FIP, and 2.86 xFIP. His walk and GB rates are very similar to the past two years, but his K rate has nearly doubled this year. A lot of this improvement is coming from decreased contact on pitches within the zone. Let’s hope the wind is blowing straight in, straightening out his knuckler and helping Tommy keep the ball in the park.
Game 3 – Sunday 1:35 ET – TBA vs. TBA
While no starter has been announced, it looks like Ben Sheets will be getting the start for the Braves. His ERA looks rough in two minor league starts, but he has a 1.89 FIP, walking one and striking out ten. The Mets have their own issues, though it looks like Johan Santana will be able to go despite a minor ankle injury. Santana currently has his highest K rate since leaving Minnesota, a lot of which can be contributed to him not throwing the ball in the strike zone. If the Braves don’t chase, Johan could have another very short start.
Offense
Over the past two weeks, most of the Braves lineup has been hitting well. Chipper Jones is hitting .486/.571/.714 over that span, while Michael Bourn, Freddie Freeman, and Martin Prado have also been great. Brian McCann finally got something going, hitting homers in four straight games before the break. Dan Uggla has suddenly forgot how to hit, striking out a ton and not squaring the ball up. At least he’s playing decent defense this year. Shortstop will likely be a black hole again, with Andrelton Simmons breaking a finger on Sunday. The first two months were bad enough, so hopefully someone can be brought in from the outside to kill time until Simmons returns in mid-to-late August.
The plan against the Mets needs to be “Don’t let David Wright beat us.” His .351/.441/.563 line is miles ahead of any of the other starters, though Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Ruben Tejada have been surprise offensive performers. The struggles of Ike Davis at the plate, Lucas Duda in the field, and Jason Bay‘s health have really dragged the team down. It’s another anecdote in the study of determining whether protection really exists.
Recap
The Braves have the advantage for Game 1, while the Mets have one of this year’s best pitchers going in Game 2. Game 3 is probably one of the most intriguing pitching matchups of the year, sending everyone on flashbacks to 2004. The Mets’ bullpen has been poor, outside of Bobby Parnell, so that, along with Wright, may be the biggest key to the series.