June 15, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves tomahawk crew dances on the dugout during the game against the Baltimore Orioles during the seventh inning at Turner Field. The Braves defeated the Orioles 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

2013 Early Projections: Position #1 PART 1

In this first part of the early 2013 projections we will dive into the starting pitcher position for the Atlanta Braves.  Obviously, much discussion this offseason has been with the lineup of the Braves but pitching has been a staple of the team for decades.  Heading into opening day of the 2013 season, the Braves starting rotation will look extremely different then the opening day of which the 2012 rotation consisted of Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens, Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy and Randall Delgado.

To begin my projections, we will start off with the Atlanta Braves 5th starter in the 2013 opening day pitching rotation.  Since the Justin Upton trade and sending Randall Delgado to Arizona, we’ve been hearing that it’s Julio Teheran’s job to lose.  If he preforms at Spring Training to his potential, he will be the clear-cut favorite for the 5th starter.  I see it a bit different, I believe the 5th man in the opening day starting rotation for the Atlanta Braves will be Paul Maholm.

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Paul Maholm (17) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Now before you scream, what the HE double hockey sticks is he thinking??  Let me explain…Maholm is entering his 31 year old season and has only had one season with a winning record (2012) and never had an ERA of lower then 3.66 (2011).  A 31 year old season is nothing to jump off the bridge about but he’s not the future of the Braves rotation.  His career WHIP is an above average of 1.396 and has given up 124 homeruns in his 8 year career.  His numbers were substantially better after joining the Braves midseason in 2012, K/9 were career high 7.7 (ATL), his H/9 was a career low with 8.3 (ATL) and all in all seemed more comfortable pitching in a Braves uniform.  But only threw 68.2 innings in 11 starts with the Braves.

I believe Maholm will have a stellar season with the Braves but going off the lineup theory that everyone believes Fredi will adapt to, he will enjoy an alternating starting rotation.  My upcoming posts will explain further.  Here are my projections for Maholm in 2013 based off previous numbers during his eight seasons.



Paul Maholm

Year Age IP GS W L ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9
2011 29 162.1 26 6 14 3.66 1.294 5.4 2.8 0.6
2012 30 189.0 31 13 11 3.67 1.222 6.7 2.5 1.0
2013 31 177.5 28 11 12 3.89 1.283 5.6 2.8 0.9


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  • Lee Trocinski

    So, are you saying Teheran will be the #4 guy, or did you forget Beachy is out until around the All-Star Break?

    • fireboss

      Anything you get from Beachy at 80% is a bonus in 2013. A year removed from TJ he will be treated like Medlen with short outings and low pitch limits.

      • Jeff Schafer

        You’ll have to stay tuned to the next post….

        Beachy has begun throwing and seems to be on schedule to return around the all star break. But with his return, he’ll rely on the bullpen a lot for his starts because they will take it extremely easy with him. I’ll be happy to see him back as soon as possible but he may not be back at full Beachy potential until 2014.

  • rick staley

    I like your thoughts on where Maholm should fit in the rotation. Teheran should excel as a member of the staff, but if he or Maholm falters…a fallback FA SP or trade to bolster the rotation is doable with the payroll flexibility afforded Wren.

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