BJ Upton: Beware the Ides of March
April 28, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Atlanta Braves center fielder
B.J. Upton(2) sits in dugout during the seventh inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
I would start by checking B.J. Upton‘s eyes. This has likely already been done (as part of the Spring physicals). The Bossman himself is blaming ‘bad swing habits’ that he picked up from somewhere. Maybe he wanted to keep up with his brother and tried adopting something that Justin does after he went ‘parking lot’ at Disney. But clearly something has changed, and I think I might know when.
On March 15th, B.J. Upton went 2-for-3 with a double in a Grapefruit League loss to the Mets. This marked the high point of BJ’s hitting in a Braves uniform: garnering one-third of the six Braves’ hits that day vs. Jeremy Hefner, et al, and raising his batting average to .444. At this point, Braves fans could hardly wait for the season to start.
But then… he cooled faster than a librarian’s stare – still hitting reasonably well, though never more than one hit in any of his eight remaining Spring starts. Down that stretch he went 6 for 30 (.200) with one homer. Now you can say “that was Spring” or “Small Sample Sizes”. Sure. But also note that the Braves had two large blowouts in which Upton did not share the wealth – games that you might have expected a couple more hits in. Okay – still no big deal.
Even after the first two weeks, all was well since brother Justin was carrying the team and wins were coming in bunches. But now, as Fredi Gonzalez sits BJ down for a couple of games to “reset” him, the question is now fully out there: what happened? It’s the $75 million question.
I am a stat guy: whenever I have a baseball question, I want to check the stats first. The numbers are pretty grim.
In the chart below, we have a breakdown of batting averages on a “per count” basis. For sake of simplicity, I have used two highlight colors: green for averages above the Mendosa Line (.200), and reddish for the ugly ones. Now clearly, one should expect that in a “hitter’s count”, the batter should have and take the advantage. Conversely, pitchers will tend to exploit the situation whenever they are ahead in a count. So in general, there should be more green on the left side, more red on the right side. For most of the Braves’ regulars, that’s true (yes, Ramiro Pena is the oddball, here), as you can see here:
The Braves have three regulars (Upton Jr, Heyward, and Uggla) hitting below .200 overall. And that’s clearly a bad thing. But here’s the rub: there is essentially no time at which BJ is any threat to the defense whatsoever. He is hitting .167 or worse – often much worse – on every hitting count there is!
But wait – don’t I see a .300 BA in the chart for that 3-1 count?? Well, yes, you do. But even that one is pretty meaningless: BJ has just 3 hits in 10 offical ABs in that situation so far this year. In other words, he’s only one scant single away from that number being .200 instead of .300. We’ll take it, but it’s not like you can call it significant.
Let’s go a little deeper: is this normal for BJ? No – it actually isn’t.
When comparing his stats for the past three seasons to those of this year, there is no place in which you can really claim any kind of improvement. The numbers are down across the board – and several are down over 100 points… which is the case for his overall batting average (admittedly only ‘average’ even before this year).
Now let’s look at plate discipline data. This is based in part on the observations of People Who Keep Track Of This Sort Of Thing, but it is clearly illustrative. I’ll summarize: BJ is making less contact with pitches he swings at (down 3% this year; down 10% over 2011). This is true even when swinging at the ‘important’ pitches – those inside the strike zone: contact down 7.5% over 2012; down 12% over 2011.
What does this mean? Extra swings-and-misses should be indicative of less-than-solid hits even when contact is made.
Evidence? Turns out it’s easy to find.
- 2013 Infield Fly Balls (not the Sam Holbrook kind*): 31% – way up from ~8% over career averages
- 2013 Grounders: up 6%
- 2013 Line Drives: down 5%
- 2013 Strikeouts: up 7%
So BJ is simply not making solid contact – whiffing far too much; not driving the ball like he usually does. The reason has to be either his eyes (possible) or his swing (more likely).
Undoubtedly, the Braves film room in already busy on this.
The Ides of March are all about an ancient assassination – but these Ides killed BJ’s swing.
Postscript: A couple of asides gleaned from this data.
1: Brian McCann is awesome again – throw him at least one strike and he goes into Beast Mode. He was hitting a ridiculous .571 with a full count BEFORE today’s full count homer.
2: If you get behind on Freddie Freeman, you’re done. Might as well just walk him. Your only real hope is to get two strikes on him.
3: Chris Johnson may soon be the full-time third baseman of the Braves. Period. He and Jordan Schafer are looking like the steals of the off-season.
(data collected from fangraphs.com) * – Sam Holbrook? Yes, I’m still bitter.