Alex Wood, Starter
Jul 25, 2013; New York, NY, USA; Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Wood and his unorthodox delivery needs to stay in the rotation.
I have always been a big supporter of Alex Wood, even going to such extremes as predicting that he will become a #1 starter in the MLB. After first being used as a reliever, Alex Wood has now found his way into the Braves rotation and has pitched remarkably well for a rookie. Paul Maholm is due to return from the DL in a week or so, and when he does the rotation will have an extra arm again; someone will need to be removed from the rotation. Due to his age, many expect this person to be Alex Wood, but in this post I will make a case for keeping him in the rotation.
The Braves Have No #3 Starter
Or even a #4. Mike Minor and Julio Teheran are this team’s #1 and #2 starters, clearly. However, if the playoffs started today, the ideal rotation would be Minor, Teheran, off day, rain out, Minor again. No one has yet stepped up to be considered our #3 or #4 starter. Instead, Beachy, Medlen, and Maholm have pitched more like 5th starters this season. As this team prepares for the playoffs, at least an NLDS appearance, it would benefit the team to have a third, and possibly 4th starter that can pitch effectively in the playoffs. At this time, in now way should Beachy and Maholm be considered for playoff starts. Medlen can do so if absolutely necessary, but he isn’t a good option for a playoff starter.
Maholm has been incredibly bad
This is probably even an understatement. Since his scoreless innings streak ended on April 14, Maholm has had a 5.33 ERA, and has allowed hitters an avg. of .299. Also, opponents are hitting the ball hard off him, as he allowed 13 HR in 17 starts, and batters have slugged .471 in that span.
Given the fact that he has now been out for a month with injury, one should expect him to be rusty his first few times in the rotation, meaning he’d be even worse than he currently has been. If he were to return near August 20th, he’d be able to make about 7 starts before the playoffs start. Is 7 starts enough to persuade manager Fredi Gonzalez that Maholm should be a starter in the playoffs? Is it enough to excite the fanbase? And if he has any rusty outings, the sample size to compare him on becomes even smaller.
Wood has been pretty good for a rookie
Sure, the sample size on Wood as a starter is small, but he’s been pretty impressive. In 4 starts (20.1 IP), he has a 2.89 FIP (3.89 ERA, mainly due to some rough defense in his 2nd start) along with a better than average K% (23.5), and 2nd lowest batting avg against among Braves starters. His WHIP is 3nd lowest among remaining healthy starters on the Braves staff. In just 4 starts, he has been nearly as valuable as Maholm was in 20, and half as valuable as Medlen in 22. Wood’s changeup and curveball has been remarkable, and he’s shown an ability to get lefties AND righties out with his pitches. When he’s not striking out guys, he’s inducing ground balls (highest GB% on the staff), and is beginning to limit his walks even better. With the run he’s been on, in addition to the fact that he’s already been moved from a starter to a reliever and back to a starter again, it would make little sense to move him back to a relief role now. He’s been much too good as a starter, and our rotation definitely needs the help. Now is not the time to mess with him.
So, What’s The Solution?
Basically, the Braves should keep the rotation the exact same as it is now. Wood has been good as a starter, and at this point we should just expect him to get even better as he gets more starts under his belt. Maholm had been pretty bad as a starter, and was essentially a LH specialist. Medlen, while not great, has been good enough where he can stay in the rotation. For me, I’d hold Maholm back as long as possible to buy time. Whenever he does return, I’d place him in the bullpen as a long-man over Ayala. Paul’s value as a starter is pretty low, so using him as a bullpen arm protects both him and us. We need to continue to let Wood grow as a starter.
In the current series against the Marlins, starting with tonight’s start by Alex, we’ll begin to gain a much clearer picture of what’s likely to happen, as I’m fairly sure that Wood’s next 2 starts will factor heavily into any decision. For now, there’s no reason to stress over it, but we will need to keep an eye out for suspected moves.