Marlins Braves Series: Live Thread (Game 2)

Welcome to our Live Game Thread for Game 2 of the Marlins / Braves Series.

Our goal is to have a live thread for as many, if not all games as we possibly can.  We realize all fans lead busy lives, and we do as well, but we also know that when you’re at home, watching the game in the comfort of your man (or lady) cave, sometimes you’re watching it all by your lonesome.  It’s good to have other like-minded fans to be able to discuss the game with, but sometimes other people just don’t get how important these games are!  Our live threads give you the chance to talk baseball, comment, rant, and rave about all things Braves!

Come on then, what are you waiting for?  All you have to do is grab your laptop, iPad, Tab, Note, or whatever else you use to satisfy your cravings for sports, and keep it nearby while watching the game.  When you see Mike Minor deliver a change up that baffles a hitter, and you wanna say, “Wow!” … you can do it, baby!  If you see Elliot Johnson slap slap a single to the opposite field against the shift, and you wanna say, “Man, he’s really steppin’ it up, dude!”…. you can do it!  Heck, even if you happen to be a Marlins fan, you can rant among all the raves!  We don’t discriminate.

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Main Twitter Account and Editor, Jeff Schafer: @TomahawkTakeFS
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Tonight’s Matchup

Game 2 – Saturday, 7:10 PM EST

Atlanta: Mike Minor (13-5, 2.99 ERA)
Miami: Jacob Turner (3-5, 3.12 ERA)

Tags: Atlanta Braves FanSided Featured Live Thread Popular

  • cheadrick

    Man Turner misses there a LOT

    • Lee Trocinski

      He has thrown 10% of all pitches in that area this year, below the knees and off the glove-side corner.

      • cheadrick

        And all 10% against the Braves? lol

        • Lee Trocinski

          That’s by far the highest percentage of the 25 boxes on his BrooksBaseball player card.

          • cheadrick

            Interesting. I just took a look at his scatter chart

  • Lee Trocinski

    Simmons needs to be told he doesn’t have enough power to be hitting 35% flyballs. If he could have a .300 BABIP with his low K rate, he’d be the best player on the Braves, if he isn’t already.

    • Benjamin Chase

      I’m in the camp that he is already (obvious by looking at my avatar), but if he could be a .270/.330/.410 hitter, I’d do backflips.

      • Lee Trocinski

        Then again, it did take Ozzie until he was 29 to be close to average offensively, so we shouldn’t complain too much.

        • Benjamin Chase

          And in today’s environment, you could make a very convincing argument that Simba is already “average” if not above so for a SS

          • Lee Trocinski

            -9.5 batting runs and +5.8 positional runs, so not quite, but close. I was talking league-average hitting though.

  • cheadrick

    Think I gotta jet guys. Kids picking at me to fix em’ some Sat. night desert. Hold down the fort. lol

    • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

      Cheers!
      … of course now we’re behind again :/

  • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

    “Oops” – double for Chris.

  • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

    …and despite the lefy-lefty matchup, McCann knocks him in w/2 outs. We’re tied again: 4-4!

  • Lee Trocinski

    Despite the great average, CJ is actually only as good as Chipper was last season. .364 OBP/.467 SLG compared to Chipper’s .377/.455. CJ’s defense isn’t any better either.

    • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

      That surprises me… the slugging in particular.

  • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

    let’s see… this is what, the 4th time the bases have been full in the last 2 nights? With nothing to show for it yet?

    • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

      0 for 4. sigh. We’re tied after 7 innings.

  • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

    We’re through 8… neither offense getting anything going.

  • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

    Bottom of the ninth….Jennings pitching for Miami…Freddie starts it off.

  • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

    Ball four to freeman. CJ next.

  • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

    SINGLE… typical CJ… oppo field, drops in front of Stanton. 1st & 2nd, none out. CJ leading in hitting again.

    • Lee Trocinski

      Batting average, not hitting….

      • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

        Technically correct, yes.

        • Lee Trocinski

          It’s just the saber nerd in me who can’t stand the title “batting crown”. Much more to hitting than average.

          • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

            It’s the lazy typist in me that didn’t wanna type out so much!

          • cheadrick

            Look guys, Chris Johnson IS a good batter, and a good hitter! There is more to hitting than BA granted, and I understand all the Simpson Paradox stuff, etc., but what planet are you living on if you say CJ is not a good hitter!? He is hitting to all fields, clutch is good, and his BA is the highest (currently). Pick-a-part the numbers all you want, but CJ is a good hitter! Now I know I’ll get a 3 paragraph long reply with a bunch of numbers, but save it. I know what I’m seeing when I watch CJ.

          • fireboss

            Uh — Batting average doesn’t reflect hitting? Since BA = Hits/ab it’s the only thing that does. BAbip doesn’t reflect strikeouts or home runs and last I looked home runs were hits so it certainly doesn’t. So enlighten me, why doesn’t batting average reflect a player’s hitting. (I know I’ll be sorry I asked this.)

          • Lee Trocinski

            By hitting I mean production at the plate. Just the normal “AVG is only part of the story.” AVG tells you how often you hit the ball and how solidly you hit it. CJ and Trout have the same AVG, but Trout has clearly been the better offensive player. More walks, more power, nothing you don’t already know.

          • Lee Trocinski

            CJ has been a very good hitter this year. But I doubt CJ will ever have another season like this, which means his true talent isn’t this good. His clutch scores on FanGraphs the past 2 seasons are -2.25 and -1.30, so he is not a clutch hitter. This all started with me refuting that CJ is the best hitter in the NL, that’s all.

  • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

    McCann… liner out to RF. Just a little too much on it to fall.

  • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

    Uggla vs. Chad Qualls, 1 out.

  • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

    3-1 grounder to short. double play. 10th inning. Arrrrrrrrgggggggggggg

    • Lee Trocinski

      On ball four, none the less…

      • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

        Couldn’t see it, I guess.

  • Lee Trocinski

    And that’s how you go from an 81% chance of winning to 50% real quickly.

  • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

    Wow. Real risky EJ. First sight, I thought he trapped it.

  • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

    Got past Stanton…. Bot 10th coming up, still tied.

  • Lee Trocinski

    Not a sac bunt…

    • Lee Trocinski

      Another negative WPA play, on purpose.

      • Lee Trocinski

        And another sac bunt that leads to no runs.

  • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

    called K for Laird ends the tenth… moving onward.

  • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

    M-Braves gave up single runs in the 5th, 7th, and 8th to fall to JAX Suns tonight. Must now beat Jacksonville in both of their final two games to win division… if Mobile doesn’t win both of their games.

  • Lee Trocinski

    Apparently the Marlins didn’t learn about bunting…

    • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

      …or double plays

      • Lee Trocinski

        But bunting was their choice. That’s the part that is so frustrating.

        • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

          I don’t mind the bunt part: having 2 outs to get 1 single for an RBI is not a high bar to leap. But when you’re doing nothing w/RISP… that’s when it gets grustrating.

          • fireboss

            Whether the runner scores after the bunt is not the right question. The right question is how many more times doe a runner score from second than from first.

          • Lee Trocinski

            But you also give the defense an out. Run expectancy tables show no benefit, and usually a decrease in chance of scoring, in that situation.

          • fireboss

            That premise says that 2 of the next three will get a hit and there will be no double play. That’s not the usual occurrence. A runner on first doesn’t routinely score on a single. but a runner on second does. You have two batters to do it without the likelihood of a double play. It also ignores who the hitter is, who the runner is and who the next hitters are.

          • Lee Trocinski

            You are right about the context, as these numbers are generalities. The Braves one was understandable, with Justin pinch-hitting after the bunt. The Marlins bunted to have Dobbs get IBB-ed and leave it to Ed Lucas, who still hit into a double play.

            But as far as the general concept goes, moving the runner up from 1st to 2nd lowers the chance of scoring a tick, from about 43% to about 41%. If it’s not the bottom of a walk-off inning, you also have to be concerned of lowering the expected runs scored from about .85 to about .68 runs. If you don’t bunt, hitters get an extra chance to get an extra-base hit that can score the runner from 1st, and walks also have to be factored in.

            I used to think the way you do, but I trust the numbers, as long as the context isn’t overwhelmingly in favor of bunting. These numbers aren’t random (Tango’s 69-92 RE table, since that fits the current scoring era better). Bunting can work, and not bunting doesn’t always work, but not bunting is usually the better idea, even in extra innings.

  • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

    Ken Rosenthal
    ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 2m
    BREAKING: #Dodgers get Michael Young from #Phillies

    Weird.

    • fireboss

      Don’t Trust Uribe

      • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

        Yeah, but he’s been available for 3 weeks.

        • fireboss

          Yea but they were HOT three weeks ago and they’ve cooled – they had to really – of late.

  • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

    4 hits now for CJ, 3 for BJ.

  • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

    Son of a gun: BJ Upton – 4 hits – Walk-off Hero.

    • Lee Trocinski

      The world is ending…

    • fireboss

      I just checked and it isn’t frozen here in Texas but I was sure it would be

  • http://tomahawktake.com/ carpengui

    Final in 11 innings: 5-4 Win for Atlanta.

  • fireboss

    I need to go to bed guys. Wallpapering kicking the old man’s ass. Thanks for the night!

  • Glen Morrow

    Sorry I missed it last night. Go Braves!