Ace Shopping: Who Could Possibly Be Available?
Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
All right – we’ve heard that Atlanta wants an “Ace”-type pitcher to head its staff, which mostly looks like a bunch of #2’s and 3’s right now. Last week, we focused on David Price as the (likely) Most Available ace out there. But what of the rest of the crop? Who might actually be obtainable via trade? Even better: who are these “aces” anyway?
Definitions of Terms
For the purposes of this exercise, an Ace is an undisputed #1 – but he’s more than that: a stopper – someone who can be counted on to deliver a quality start probably 80% of the time [EDIT: at least half the time; agreeing with comments below]. By this, I do not mean to employ the watered-down Quality Start definition that’s in vogue (at least six innings; no more than 3 earned runs). I’m thinking at least 7 innings with 2 ER or fewer. That’s the kind of pitcher that the opposition fears. In terms of overall performance, I am going with 4+ years of an ERA+ at 130 or better… with some wiggle room for special cases. This is my own greatly simplified definition, your mileage may vary.
When these guys go on a roll, nobody hits them. When playoffs come, you hand them the ball and say “Go get ’em”. When facing these guys, you look at the upcoming schedule and think things like:
- We’ll really have to play well to beat this guy
- I hope we can hang with them until we can get the bullpen into the game
- At least this is only one game
There are “#1” pitchers who are not aces. Aces strike fear into the opponents. #1’s can have really good days – certainly – but you feel like there’s still a decent shot for your club to win when you face them. Aces have been there and done that for quite a while – they are not ‘flashes in the pan’ or ‘one season wonders’. They are the best of the best. There are guys you can project to eventually achieve Ace-dom, but until they’ve actually earned the distinction – they aren’t allowed into this club.
Comparison to past pitchers/career ERA+
- Tom Glavine: 118 (below 100 before 1991; after 2002, never exceeded 119)
- Greg Maddux: 132
- John Smoltz: 125 (was ace-level from 1995-2008)
- Randy Johnson: 135
- Roger Clemens: 143
- Bert Blyleven: 118 (several excellent years from 1972-1977; 1984-85)
- Jack Morris: 105 (peak was 133)
Who Ya Got?
I have compiled a long list, which definitely contains names of pitchers not at that ‘ace’ level. But I opted to expand the list in the interests of completeness and argument avoidance (though I’ll still probably miss somebody). In addition, there will clearly be a lot of competition among teams wanting to add pitching this off-season, and the odds of Atlanta being able to land its first choice have to be thought of as remote. Thus, we need to evaluate all possibilities.
The criteria for getting onto this list in the first place: high pitching fWAR or low ERA – accumulated either over the past four seasons or this past season. I left off pitchers already on the Braves’ roster (Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, et al) and those announcing retirement (Andy Pettitte) or who should (Roy Oswalt). Now I recognize that this criteria violates one of my rules for defining the Ace – the longevity test. Again, though, I’m looking for any players Atlanta might be able to land. It is pretty clear that while this team seeks an ace; they may not find one or get one.
As a result, this is lengthy… buckle up.
The List
I’ll use ERA+ from baseball-reference.com to establish a more-or-less level field for comparisons (I know – it’s an imperfect science) and their contractual data.
Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports
Bronson Arroyo. Not an ace. $16.4m in 2013. That’s a lot for a non-ace. Agents: Clifton, Bross. Free agent right now. One great year in 2006; since then he’s been only 5-10% above average. 9 straight years of 200 innings or better (okay, 199 in 2011), so that holds excellent value… but not $16.4m value (think Derek Lowe). He is 36 and won’t see those kind of numbers again. Cincy will likely offer the Qualfying Offer contract of $14.1m… and he should take it. Verdict: Available; not desirable.
Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
A.J. Burnett. Think somewhere between Derek Lowe (from 2006-08) and Tim Hudson. Not an ace, but a solid innings guy. Agent: Darek Braunecker. 2013 was best season (by ERA) since 2002. However, he’s almost 37 and hinted at retirement late in the year. He is nonetheless now a free agent and is free to sign with anybody… including the Braves, who wanted him before they had to settle with Derek Lowe in 2009. Verdict: available, but Tim Hudson would be cheaper and easier to sign… and likely better.
Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Matt Garza. Not an ace. Decent performer, better than many, but no. Also has had a little trouble staying on the field recently: 104 innings in 2012, 155 in 2013). Did not pitch as well at Texas (you gotta feel for the Rangers: everything went wrong for them this year). Free agent. Agents: CAA Sports. 2013 contract: $10.25m (a Super-2 deal). Verdict: available, but our staff already has better pitchers.
Rare footage of Josh Johnson pitching. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports
Josh Johnson. Ace-like tendencies…. when healthy. And that’s been his career… not being able to stay on the field. 7 years of service time; above 180 innings just 3 times. Free agent, having completed a 4 year deal ending at $13.75m. Age: 30 in January. Agent: Matt Sosnick. Verdict: available, though very risky.
Max effort. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
All of that to say this: Liriano could be made available by the Pirates since they have many arms available and they have to pay Wandy a pile of money. By fWAR, Liriano was their second-best pitcher, behind Burnett… if you ignore the fact that Gerrit Cole came on like gangbusters. But it would save Pittsburgh up to $6m to move Liriano, and they still have to figure out how to fill a couple of holes. But would I want Liriano? Plus signs: turns 30 years old this Saturday; 1 year affordable deal; just finished best season since 2006; first good season since 2010 (change of scenery helped, perhaps?). Minus signs: only good season since 2010; no actual improvement to the Atlanta rotation; it would be a ‘buying high’ situation. Verdict: you could likely talk trade with Pittsburgh, but would seem to be no advantage in obtaining him.
- Kyle Lohse. Not an ace. Actually didn’t even make the initial cut on this list, but Atlanta’s waiver claim on him in August brought him into the discussion anyway. Last 3 years of ERA+: 117 (2013), 133, 109. Started slow with Milwaukee, finished strong… including a game vs. Atlanta… was their best pitcher. Signed for 2014-15 at $11m per year. Was a late 2013 signee due to a combination of Scott Boras tactics and team restraint since his acquisition meant the loss of a draft pick. Lohse is now 35 and the idea of a 2-year commitment is probably about right for him. He would likely be a decent pickup – will eat innings; solid #1/#2 guy if the Brewers would listen. They have been difficult to work with – trading only a couple of relievers last year, despite their position in the standings. I suppose they believe in the pieces they’ve accumulated, but that didn’t translate into wins last year – Ryan Braun notwithstanding. Verdict: likely not available in 2014; would have to overpay to make a deal.
- Justin Masterson. Not an ace. 29 years old in March. Had 2 or 3 pretty good years, including 2 of the last 3. 2014 will be his last arbitration year; he made $5.69m in 2013. Made the All-Star team. By fWAR, he out-pitched Ubaldo Jimenez; by ERA he was a couple of ticks below. The Indians are similar to Atlanta: several good – not great – pitchers, though Atlanta still gets the nod overall. As such, either Jimenez or Masterson could add to that, but neither would be the significant upgrade the Braves seem to be looking for. Verdict: not available unless Cleveland isn’t competitive – and then only in late July.
- Ricky Nolasco. Not an ace. Carlos Enrique Noalsco will be 31 in December. He has been annoyingly average. Last 3 years of ERA+: 101, 100, 101. But he’s also thrown 206, 191, 199, 199 innings in recent years, too. Look, this is already way too long to waste time discussing an average pitcher: Verdict: moving on – nothing to see here.
- Jake Peavy. Not an ace. 33 next March. On a 5 year deal for $77m with a 2015 player option at $15m. For all of this hoopla over Peavy and the excitment (including from me) about maybe trying to buy him from the White Sox at the trade deadline, I am duty-bound to report his ERA+ numbers for the past three years: 101, 100, 101. No, that is NOT a misread of the same pattern I just wrote for Ricky Nolasco! Yes, Peavy has been better than this: essentially ace-like from 2004 through about 2009. But since joining the White Sox, he’s just not been the same guy. Would I want him on my team? Maybe… as a #1/#2… but not an ace. Verdict: not available until at least the 2014 trade deadline… probably longer.
- Rick Porcello. Not an ace. Strange case, this one. Detroit was dangling Porcello to open the year… he was the human trade rumor for a while. He’s still just 24 – will be 25 at the end of the year – and is in the middle of his arbitration cycle (Super 2 – free agent after 2 more years; Agent: Hendricks Sports). From the Tigers’ perspective (and that of fantasy baseball aficionados), I can see the dilemma: he made $5.1m last year, he has a high WHIP (1.39 average) and mediocre ERA+ (95 average). The fans looking only at W/L numbers might not get it: 14-9 (twice), 10-12 (twice), 13-8 in 2013. That’s usually acceptable. And this year he improved to a 4.32 ERA, which is not horrible in the AL.
Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
I would like to see Porcello in an NL park – I think he’d do well for a middling team like Milwaukee or Pittsburgh. He might even blossom in Atlanta, though I frankly don’t see the upside for the Braves – especially if their aspirations are higher. Besides, we already have a bunch of similar arms, and ours are much cheaper. But I have to believe Detroit will listen – more so in 2014 than they did in 2013, for Porcello is likely to fetch ~$7m in 2014. That will be beyond a Kris Medlen number next season, and is a lot to pay for ‘average’… which he’s yet to achieve since his first year. Verdict: should be available; should not be pursued.
- David Price. By the strict definitions I’ve laid out, Price is darn close to ace-dom, but he needs to repeat his even-numbered seasons to get there. He is 28 years old, 122 career ERA+ (I’d like to see 130+ for an Ace; his 108 in 2011 and 114 in 2013 drag that down). Does have a Cy Young award (2012); does have a 20-win season. Missed 200 innings in 2013 (missed ~6-7 starts). K/BB ratio of 5.59 – excellent control.
Okay, it’s no secret that we here on TomahawkTake.com like Price. He’s The Guy that most of us want the Braves to acquire. We like his upside; we like his performance; we like his age; we like his Leftiness. He’s from Murfreesboro, TN (SE of Nashville), and went to school at Vandy with Mike Minor. We think his best years are still coming, and that he should be the #1 target for Atlanta – almost regardless of the cost.
Price is a Super-2 arbitration player: still under team control for 2 more seasons… albeit with a cost: he was already at $10.1m in 2013, which is exactly why everybody – Price included – believes that Tampa Bay will jettison him for new farm hands this off-season. He’s priced out of the Rays’ budget. New TV money will give them a shot at retention, so this is far from a slam dunk, but there will undoubtedly be high competition for him starting in a couple of weeks. I believe Tampa Bay will likely let him go because (a) the timing is good for them; (b) they don’t need to risk him getting hurt and blowing the value he has; and (c) the money thing. Verdict: very likely available; definitely trade-worthy.
Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Ervin Santana. Not an ace. Will be 31 in December. Free Agent; agent: Wasserman Media Group; $13m from KC in 2013. Occasional flashes of brilliant seasons (2008, 2013 – matched 127 ERA+ results). Also tends to lay eggs some years (2012, 2009, 2007). Somebody is going to overpay to get him – and lose a draft pick in the process. I expect it will not be Atlanta. Verdict: available; but not reliable enough for the ri$k.
Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Jered Weaver. Not an ace, but closer than I thought: ERA+ 127 with 3 straight 132+ years. 2013 was still good (115). He is signed through 2016 (Scott Boras) with a full no-trade clause at $16m/$18m/$20m for the next 3 years. Weaver just turned 31, and he’s actually from Simi Valley/Northridge, CA. Continue below with C.J. Wilson…
Los Angeles must be the place in which bad contracts come home to roost. The Dodgers are creating a mess, but Anaheim is at the epicenter. They are paying Vernon Wells $18.5m next year to play for somebody else. They are paying Josh Hamilton $17m ($32m in 2017!) to hit occasionally. They are paying Albert Pujols $23m-and-up for life (seems like it) starting in 2014 ($30m in 2021). Weaver will get $16m… but might almost be worth it by comparison.
It is for numbers like these that you’d have to think that the Angels might what to listen on almost any player they’ve got – though of course pesky things like no-trade clauses and 10-and-5 rights get in the way. It’s why we mention guys like Howie Kendrick as an option for second base.
Even if you could pry either pitcher away from Anaheim, each would present their own risks: both cost a bunch (money and prospects), and you would hope both could rebound to their former glory… though the National League switchover could help.
Verdict: neither are really available; I’d want Weaver more, though he’d need convincing.
- Travis Wood. Not an ace. 27 in February; first arbitration year is coming up. Under team control through 2016. Excellent 2013 campaign (127 ERA+, though does not have overpowering stuff). Not the ace you’re looking for… even if he was on the market. Verdict: not available; would likely not improve the staff.
- Jordan Zimmermann. Not an ace. 28 in 2014, still arbitration eligible through 2015 ($5.35m in 2013). Very solid, steady work in 2011-2013 – ace-like in 2012; 19-9 record for a ‘down’ Washington Nats team in 2013. Regardless, I can’t see the Braves and Nats getting together on any deal – much less for Zimmermann. Verdict: not available.
Summary
That was a big list; I apologize for that, but I wanted to attempt something akin to completeness. So here are the available pitchers – in no particular order (almost all are free agents):
- David Price
- Roy Halladay
- Rick Porcello
- Ervin Santana
- Hiroki Kuroda
- Chad Billingsley
- Bronson Arroyo
- Chris Carpenter
- Matt Garza
- Josh Johnson
- Scott Kazmir
- Dan Haren
- Tim Hudson
- Ervin Santana
- Ubaldo Jimenez
(Updated to add Jimenez: the players now shown in bold are my own guess as to those who might be (a) the most gettable; and (b) the best performance bets over the next couple of years). There is probably an argument to be made that almost any of them could deliver 110-120 or better ERA+ performance.
For Comparisons, here’s how the Braves’ starting staff did with ERA+ in 2013:
- Mike Minor: 120
- Kris Medlen: 124
- Julio Teheran: 121
- Paul Maholm: 88
- Tim Hudson: 97
- Brandon Beachy: 87 (weak start – only 30 innings, so that dragged down his number)
- Alex Wood: 124
- Kameron Low: 65
- Freddy Garcia: 237
- David Hale: 488 (yeah, I know: but it’s fun to put that in this list anyway!)
I’ll stop and let y’all talk amiably amongst yourselves.