2014 Budget: The Calm Before the Arbitration Storm

Nov 29, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves outfielder B.J. Upton (middle) addresses the media while sitting next to team president John Schuerholz (left) and manager Fredi Gonzalez (right) to announce his signing during a press conference at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Shirey-USA TODAY Sports

Back at the end of October, we took a look at yet another kind of projection for 2014:  the payroll budget of the Atlanta Braves.  At that time, we learned that Atlanta could be looking to spend around $100 million on payroll this year, up from about $90-$93m from last year (depending on whether you include B.J. Upton’s bonus).

Since this week is “arbitration filing week“, it seemed like a good idea to see where things stand at this point in the off-season.  So here’s the magic spreadsheet (click the pic to see all of its fullness):

At this point – before those final seven (significant) arbitration-eligibles sign, the Braves can estimate that they will be close to $92 million in payroll expenditures as of opening day.

A couple of points, however:

• While MLB Trade Rumors’ models were used to estimate the arbitration figures still to come, early information suggests that players signing this week are not getting anything under those estimates.  Some numbers are dead on; others slightly higher.  This will have an impact on the negotiations still taking place with others, including the Braves’ players.
• The sheer volume of cases still remaining (7) for Atlanta, plus the interesting nature of a couple of them (Kimbrel, Schafer perhaps) suggests that at least 1 or 2 could end up in arbitration court (we’ll know that by late Friday).  If so, that numbers could skew significantly one way or the other.
• Complicating matters is the money that free agents have been getting this off-season:  significantly up from past years.  Seems some teams are not being bashful about spending the new ESPN contract loot… and that will impact arbitration season as well.

Will update this as we find out more and solidify some of the ‘soft’ numbers above.