The expected news came from California this morning confirming what most already knew, Brandon Beachy will have his second TJ surgery in just over two years
— David O’Brien (@ajcbraves) March 20, 2014
Beachy joins Kris Medlen on the TJ sequel list but unlike Medlen Beachy will have his operation done by Dr. Neal ElAttrache, the Dodgers team physician according to O’Brien’s post for the AJC. The Braves allow players to choose their surgeon for things like this and perhaps after Andrews had to go in and remove a bone chip last year decided a change was needed.
Sequels Seldom Successful
I wrote a while back about trusting surgically repaired arms and while the first TJ surgery has around a 90% rate for successful returns the sequel comes in at about 20% while a third is so rare that I can’t find any solid numbers . Add to that lack of success pitching mechanics that put excessive stress on his arm and Beachy’s odds get longer. In an article for Sports Illustrated Cliff Corcoran summed it up pretty well
. . .(I found) 37 major league pitchers who have had multiple Tommy John surgeries prior to Parker and Medlen. Seven of those … after June 2012. . .That leaves a data sample of 30 pitchers . . .For (a starter’s return) to be a success, however, they’d have to come back as starters, and. . . second on the list of most starts after a second Tommy John surgery is Hong-Chih Kuo, who made just 14 and had his greatest success as a left-handed reliever….(Starters)can find greater inspiration on the field than . . . as the man ahead of Kuo . . .(is) Chris Capuano . . (who has ) made 93 starts, 84 of them coming in the last three seasons
He goes on to say that unlike most of the other 2TJ pitchers Medlen and Beachy are young and not already in decline so they could change the paradigm.
Braves Rotation Status Quo
In spite of having an in jury riddled rotation and no high ceiling arms near ready for prime time, GM Frank Wren has said they are standing pat. Mike Minor will be back after tax day and Gavin Floyd is expected in May. If Floyd does make it back in May and sticks it will be at least two and possibly seven months ahead of schedule according to Sports Injury Alert.
But after undergoing surgery last May to repair tears to his ulnar collateral ligament and flexor tendon, his recovery time was expected to be between 14 and 19 months.
Floyd said all along he’d be back sooner and the Braves now need him to be on time. Jonny Venters too says he’ll be ready by June and like Beachy his delivery casts a huge shadow over his chances of success. In Venters favor is that relievers are more likely to have a successful comeback after their second TJ; Brian Wilson’s recovery last year is the model
That’s A Wrap
I’m not optimistic Beachy – or Medlen – will return before 2016 if then. The push to shorten rehab time seems to me counterproductive but they didn’t ask me. Floyd’s durability also must be in question with the complexity of his multiple repair surgery. On the upside David Hale looks strong and If needed could easily slip into the fifth slot for about 140 innings and if Ervin Santana does what he should do and Minor returns the rotation will be pretty good. That’s a lot of ifs and the way pitchers are getting injured this year – and in recent years come to that – I suspect this won’t be the last pitching injury story we see this year.
Tags: Atlanta Braves