It’s Not As Bad As All That… Yet
May 29, 2014; Boston, MA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Mike Minor (36) walks to the dugout with catcher Evan Gattis (24) during the fifth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
The Starting Pitching Nosedive
No, it’s actually not the fault of the offense. At least not completely. Clearly, superior starting pitching performances carried this club throughout April. But since then, a decline in May is leading to a free-fall here in June:
STARTERS
- APRIL: 2.32 ERA – 1st in the majors
- MAY: 3.48 ERA – 6th in the majors
- JUNE: 4.85 ERA – 24th in the majors
Okay, April was spectacular – a level that could not realistically be sustained. May’s performance is probably right where we should expect this group to perform, on average. But now June has raised the average starter’s ERA by nearly a run-and-a-half!
BUT IS THAT ‘REAL’?
I’ll give you two separate answers – here’s the first:
Minor, Teheran, and Santana were partly victims of the Denver Effect: that tendency to have a single outing – coinciding with a trip to Colorado – blow up their ERA. Minor gave up 8 earned in 4 innings there; Teheran yielded 7 in 6.1 innings. Thus Minor’s June ERA of 6.75 thus far shows two-thirds of that damage coming via that Denver start. Likewise 7 of Teheran’s 10 earned runs allowed are from there, and 6 of Santana’s 9.
I’d argue that you cannot (yet) judge them on that lone outing, and that the rest of their work shows this.
Gavin Floyd managed to be the one pitcher who survived the Denver Effect: 1 earned run into the seventh inning. Actually, he fared better there than he has elsewhere this month. [continued]