The Wild Card No One Wants
By Fred Owens
Bud Selig calls it parity. Fans call it mediocrity. Whatever you call it the race for the second NL Wild Card won’t be won by the best team but by the least bad team.
Wild Card Two
Sequels are never as good as the original and that’s certainly true for the 2014 NL Wild Card II. Not that Wild Card II isn’t there for the taking any significant winning streak could have put it out of reach. That hasn’t happened and like a greased pig at the county fair, every time a team seems to have it in under control they trip and the pig escapes.
The failure of teams to take charge can be traced to different causes but none of it to well played intensely competitive baseball games that generated the excitement the commissioner and pundits rave about. Mostly it’s been sloppy play, injury and odd managerial decisions that decided the contests. In any case the pig is slippery not because it was covered with grease before the race but because the teams greased their own hands – the Braves apparently couldn’t tell grease from pine tar.
The Story So Far
On August fifth the NL Wild Card looked like this.
NL Wild Card August 5, 2014 | |||
Tm | W | L | GB |
SFG | 62 | 52 | IN |
STL | 60 | 51 | |
PIT | 59 | 53 | 1.5 |
ATL | 58 | 55 | 3 |
CIN | 57 | 56 | 4 |
MIA | 55 | 57 | 5.5 |
SDP | 51 | 61 | 9.5 |
Since then positions have changed a bit but suspects remains the same.
- The Cardinals woke up and went 17-13 and took over first place from the Brewers
- The Brewers forgot how to win going 12-16 and dropping three games out of first, a four game swing
- The Pirates failed to take advantage but remain 2 games back. They have two games in hand over everyone else so they could well move up the list quickly.
- Cincinnati sunk without a trace 9-19
- Miami ( 13-14) gained a half game and won’t make it but they will influence who does
- The 13-15 Mets stayed 7 games back though with a –11 run differential no one is sure exactly how
- The15-13 Padres who score so rarely it calls for a parade gained two games but will never seriously contend
- And of course there’s the Braves who in spite of a 15-13 record managed to sneak into the right back out of a Wild Card berth
W | L | WP | GB | WC EN | |
San Francisco | 78 | 64 | .549 | 3.5 | – |
Milwaukee | 74 | 67 | .525 | – | – |
Atlanta | 73 | 68 | .518 | 1 | 21 |
Pittsburgh | 71 | 68 | .511 | 2 | 21 |
The WC EN is the Wild Card elimination number. Similar to the Magic Number but in reverse, any combination of losses by a team or wins by teams ahead of them that totals that number eliminates the team. Last night the number ticked down by two for the Braves with their loss and the Brewers win.
Parity = Mediocrity
The experts say this is exciting because so many teams are in the various races. The truth is so many teams are in the races because the teams that can’t take charge aren’t very deep and a couple aren’t well managed. This isn’t to say that their prime eight or nine players are bad but the bench depth looks more like a wet sidewalk than a talent pool. So when injuries hit a team it drops like a rock. That happened to the Cardinals when Yadier Molina and a couple of starters went down and in the last few weeks it’s what happened to the Reds and Brewers.
Live Feed
Zona Zealots
The Reds were never in this after the ASG but the Brew Crew were playing well then Carlos Gomez injured a wrist and they lost not only a leadoff man but one of the preeminent defensive center fielders in the league. Ryan Braun’s been injured all year but the flare up of his nerve damaged right thumb makes it hard for him to grip a bat robbing them of a power threat.
The Pirates have similar problems with injuries to Pedro Alvarez, Travis Snider and Andrew McCutchen but their real issue was injuries to starting pitching and a bullpen that seemed to forget how to hold onto a lead. Still Clint Hurdle kept them right where they were and with players getting healthy they are a threat.
The Braves haven’t had significant injury to overcome. Sure Andrelton Simmons is carrying an ankle that won’t heal until December but they’ve been healthy. Their problem is self inflicted and the same one that’s bedeviled them all season; they score runs in bunches or not at all; not at all being the one we see most often That I’m afraid points to managerial errors at and above the field level as well as misuse of a bench that is pretty shallow but could have been helpful.
Doing the same things over and over again. . .
B.J. Upton continues to play in spite of being one of the worst hitters in the game today and having mental lapses in center field. Skipper Fredi Gonzalez says he can’t play Emilio Bonifacio every day or he’ll get exposed but even an exposed Bonifacio is a better bet than an empty Upton.
Gonzalez continues to rest Evan Gattis and play Gerald Laird. Laird is a fine backup but Gattis’ bat has to play every day. He’s a big strong man, He can rest in November.
Chris Johnson’s in a horrible slump but Gonzalez keeps running him out there.
Split G GS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 2014 Totals 136 133 21 144 .266 .296 .366 .662 Last 7 days 5 4 3 4 .000 .200 .000 .200 Last 14 days 10 9 5 10 .167 .286 .167 .452 Last 28 days 24 23 8 28 .233 .298 .291 .589
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/6/2014.
It makes no sense to do that with Phil Gosselin available. He’s a better defender and more likely to get a hit of late than Johnson.
Ryan Doumit isn’t a good pinch hitter – .177/.235/.306/.542 – but he’s the ‘go to guy’ for a power bat. I know that’s what he was hired to do but why not try Joey Terdoslavich? He can’t be worse.
In Thursday’s game with one out and no one on base in the the fifth inning and down just 4-3, Yankee manager Joe Girardi went to his bullpen and brought in a lefty specialist to get David Ortiz then a right hander to face Yoenis Cespedes. Why? He knew that the Yankees have to do everything they can to win every game and this time of year a starting pitcher with questionable results can’t be left in when the other team has his number. Of course I’m talking about Aaron Harang who has been great for us most of the year but not good at all lately.
Dates | GS | IP | R | ER | ERA | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | WHIP |
8/14 to 8/31 | 4 | 23 2/3 | 16 | 15 | 5.70 | .316 | .364 | .418 | .783 | 1.648 |
His recent problems should have had him on a short leash last night and had David Hale loose from the first inning on. Yet he was allowed to stay in through the third when the Marlins doubled their score and into the fourth giving up two more runs before a change was made. Considering the recent performance of the Braves’ offense It might not have changed the result but a manager simply cannot allow that to happen in September.
Backing into post season
As bad as the results have been the Braves are still in with a shot at the Wild Card. Here’s what the teams face. The Marlins and Padres role is spoiler, they haven’t shown the consistency at the plate to make a 16-5 run.
Braves | Brewers | Cardinals | Dodgers | Giants | Pirates |
2 @ Miami | 2 vs STL | 2 @ Mil | 2 vs AZ | 1 @ Det | 2 @ Cubs |
3 @ Nats | 4 vs Miami | 4 @ Reds | 3 vs SDP | 3 vs AZ | 4 @ PHL |
3 @ Texas | 3 vs Reds | 3 vs Rox | 3 @ SFG | 3 vs LAD | 3 vs Cubs |
3 vs Nats | 3 @ STL | 3 vs Mil | 3 @ Rox | 3 @ AZ | 3 vs R Sox |
3 Vs Mets | 3 @ Pit | 3 vs Reds | 4 @ Cubs | 3 @ SDP | 3 vs Mil |
4 vs Pit | 3 @ Reds | 3 @ Cubs | 3 @ SFG | 3 Vs LAD | 4 @ ATL |
3 @ PHI | 3 vs Cubs | 3 @ AZ | 3 vs Rox | 4 @ SDP | 3 @ Reds |
The Brewers: After breaking their nine game skid in St Louis last night they have two more regular season games with the Redbirds this weekend. After that it’s:Of all the teams the Cardinals appear to have the easiest route to the finish line while the Brewers need to go on a winning streak to match their recent losing streak to recapture their division lead. One of those two is definitely in.
The Dodgers two game lead could easily vanish if they don’t take care of business against the red hot Giants so they have to beat the rest of the division every chance they get. In any case I think both teams are in post season with the Nationals.
The real fight is between the Pirates, Braves and the loser of the Cards/Brewers tussle.
That’s A Wrap
The Braves have a rough road ahead of them. First they have to reverse their fortunes against the marlins an try to grab the remaining two games. Then they have to continue to dominate a Nationals team that’s playing as well as any right now, take the series from the Mets and spank the Pirates when they come to Atlanta; none of that will be easy. To do it the Braves need to play about .670 ball and they simply don’t look like a team that can do that.
The Nationals in particular will want to knock the Braves out of post season if they can so expect them to throw everything at us regardless of how safe their position is.
When the Pirates get to Atlanta you can bet Clint Hurdle will make them aware that it is incumbent on them to return the favor and knock the Braves out of the race as the Braves did to the Bucs in 91.
Their inconsistency at the plate makes the probability of a sustained streak low. Since the first of May the Braves haven’t been good; they’ve played only one month of winning baseball – June – and produced a record of 56-59. The Braves inconsistent offense and erratic management hasn’t earned them a playoff spot. If they end up in the one game elimination they’ll enter through the back door.