Would It Be Better if Atlanta Missed the Playoffs?

1, 0, 4, 3, 7, 0, 0, 1, 0

That’s the Braves run-scoring over the past nine games.  In that 4-run game – which required 10 innings – Alex Wood delivered a 2-out, 2 RBI hit.  In one of those other games, nobody got a hit.

Sure:  that’s only 9 games.  This time.  But it’s hardly the first time we’ve broached the subject of this anemic offense.  I frankly don’t have enough space to bother with all of the links to our write-ups this year on this topic.

The Braves now stand at 74-70 on the season:  a scant 4 games above .500.  Their run-differential of +6 is right in line with that level of mediocrity.  They are now 8 games behind the Nationals, and 1.5 behind the Pirates for the final Wild Card playoff slot with 18 games remaining on the schedule.

This is a club that most all of us figured to beat the Vegas pre-season projection of 87.5 wins… with relative ease.  Heck, this was a club that won 94 games a year ago… with most of the major players on offense still present.

The Offensiveness is Great

The process of getting back to fundamentals may require some pain in order to justify the medicine.  And if missing the playoffs is sufficient pain, then perhaps that time is almost upon us.

Over the past 14 days – the time at which a playoff team ought to be hitting its stride and bringing their best effort to the park every day – the Atlanta Braves are flailing.  Among non-pitchers, the team is 29th in scoring, 28th in batting average, 23rd in BABIP, and 26th in wRC+ (72, a figure in which 100 is ‘average’).  Oddly enough the “bright” spots are walk and strikeout rates:  9th and 21st.  That latter figure is actually an improvement, but likely due to the increased playing time of

and

.  Even

, who almost never struck out over the first month of the season, suddenly has a 20% K rate with his unbalanced wild swings.

All that has lead me to wonder the following:

Would it be better if that turn-around didn’t happen?  What if the spiral were to continue and Atlanta finishes at roughly .500 for the year?

In mulling this topic for the past 2-3 weeks, I was absolutely hoping we wouldn’t get here… and that question may soon become academic given the reality set before us.  But after the continued lack-luster output last night – against a team that the Braves have “owned” for the past couple of years – I have become convinced.  An overhaul is needed.  A big one.

I think I can make the case that there are advantages that could lead to a much brighter future.

Fast-Forward to December

Jun 7, 2014; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Atlanta Braves first base coach Terry Pendleto.. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Winter Meetings are in progress.  Empowered by the Summer Swoon that took his team out of contention for the 2014 playoffs, Frank Wren has already been wielding a broadsword in the process of making sweeping changes throughout the organization.  He has been quoted often in this off-season as having full authority to implement CEO Terry McGuirk’s desire to hold all members of the organization accountable for their actions.

• Fredi Gonzalez has been fired.  Terry Pendleton, promising to get the team back to the basics of speed, defense, and hitting has been hired to replace him.  Pitching Coach Roger McDowell was retained.
• Hitting coaches Greg Walker and Scott Fletcher are both gone.  Pendleton is said to be considering former manager and one-time Braves hitting coach Don Baylor, but he is currently employed by the Anaheim Angels and they would need to give their permission before any talks there could take place.
• Braves AA coach Aaron Holbert has been promoted to the AAA Gwinnett club.  Brian Snitker has been offered Holbert’s Mississippi position, but has yet to accept it.
• Wren has gone on record as saying the no one on the roster is safe – that everyone is available.  Rival executives have suggested that perhaps some are “more” available than others, but clearly Wren was sending a message and trade talks have been taking place at an “accelerated pace”.

Statements from Pendleton and Wren both suggest that the goal is to reshape the team – built around pitching, defense, speed, fewer strikeouts, more walks, and the fundamentals of getting runners moved around the bases.  Pendleton, a former MVP and Gold Glove winner with Atlanta who never himself exceeded a 20% strikeout level during his career, is championing this overhaul.  A number of up-and-coming minor league players in the Braves system fit that mold, and thus are expected to get a long look this Spring.

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Yes, this is a hypothetical scenario, but a realistic one – for a whole host of reasons:

• The 2015 schedule features a (likely) stronger NL East with the Mets and Marlins expected to compete strongly – for the next several years.
• The 2015 schedule features a (likely) stronger AL East as well – with a Boston Red Sox team that has already done its own house-cleaning in anticipation of a brighter future.
• The Braves expect to be in a new stadium in 2017.  The hope was that they would bring in a nucleus of a strong 2014 club with long-term contract extensions and a record of success to lure in new season-ticket buyers.  Therefore the time is now to turn around the fortunes of this team for 2015-16.
• And of course:  the corporate ownership group of Liberty Media is a business… one that expects performance and results.  2014 began with that promise – one that is being unfulfilled at present.

An overhaul could re-fill the roster – and the minor leagues – with players that fit the old-school/new thinking mantra outlined above.  It would provide a means to obtain the pitching needed to replace the imminent departures of free-agents-to-be.  It could also provide future flexibility for a team suddenly paralyzed by the spate of long-term contract extensions that we thought we wanted to see last Spring.

In short, it could signal a whole new approach.  Maybe.

The Curse of Dan Uggla‘s Ghost?

"Ye are cursed with a curse: for ye have robbed me, even this whole nation. — Malachi 3:9 (KJV)"

Is this the curse of Dan Uggla‘s departure?  That his offensive woes have now been bestowed upon the entire roster?  No – but Dan’s problems were a symptom of the much larger problem of a lack of fundamental hitting.  The arrival of Tommy La Stella and Philip Gosselin and their hitting styles that stand in stark contrast to Dan’s should be an indication of an attempt to change this team’s – nay, this organization’s – mindset.

Yes – I’m the guy who suggested trading half the team back at the end of July – knowing that it would never happen, but as a half-serious exercise to get us all thinking about what I hoped would not happen… and as things have played out during the second half, we’re actually nearly there.

This is not an “I told you so” exercise:  what I am advocating is a return to fundamentals.  Baseball is not a game driven by the home run.  Offense comes from smart hitting – taking the walks when needed, moving runners over, spoiling good pitches and hitting the hittable ones.

Strikeouts are not productive.  They put deep holes into rally attempts and fail to support teammates already on base.  Opposing teams are exploiting this by pitching around the actual threats in Atlanta’s lineup and punching out the rest.  You cannot sustain run-scoring threats while this is happening.

The process of getting back to fundamentals may require some pain in order to justify the medicine.  And if missing the playoffs is sufficient pain, then perhaps that time is almost upon us.

At least we’d get a higher draft pick on June 8th, 2015.