Braves Players: Position by Position Ranks

It is pretty easy to pick on the Atlanta Braves’ offense in general (29th in runs scored, 29th in RBI, 27th in strikeouts, 23rd in OBP, 23rd in average, 21st in homers), but it’s a whole ‘nother thing to pick on individuals – well, unless their names are Dan Uggla or B.J. Upton.

However, it seemed the right time this morning to investigate just how widespread The Fail is among the position players – which would be the first step in trying to assess where off-season improvements could be made to this team.

Methodology

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I have scoured fangraphs.com for several stats – but settled on two:  OPS and Defensive WAR among all players in baseball with at least 200 plate appearances.  Yes, I could have used oWAR, wRC+, and a host of other possibilities.  There were some reasons for these choices:

• WAR is a cumulative stat.  This would necessarily put players such as Tommy La Stella at an inherent disadvantage for comparison purposes, since he has been our second baseman for just 89 games.
• I have some concerns about wRC+ since it involves runs scored, and that involves players other than those I am looking at.  Since this Braves team is bad at scoring runs, everyone’s wRC+ number will be depressed because of … well, everybody else.
• I also have some concerns about the scaling for ballpark effects.  That said, Turner Field is within 1-2% of “neutral” anyway.
• I opted to use defensive WAR because it is a comprehensive stat – and when it comes to defensive metrics, the more you can pile into the calculation, the better.  Much of it is difficult to quantify anyway, but as you’ll see, I have discounted even these numbers.

ABOUT THE RANKINGS – THE DISCLAIMERS

Ultimately, I made three rankings:  offense (via OPS), defense (via fangraphs dWAR), and a combination based on a weighted average (2xOffense)+Defense (i.e., the offensive contribution is double that of the defense).  This is simply the way I am viewing the numbers – if you want a different formula, be my guest:  I’m giving you the data and my methods so that you can apply your own spin as you wish.

One exception, however:  for catchers, I counted Offense and Defense contributions equally.  This was done because catchers are more heavily involved in defense than any other player.

This has two bad effects: (1) it hurts Evan Gattis‘ overall rating (not due to any particular bias against him, but that’s the result); and (2) it magnifies the importance of what’s likely the most unreliable number in the whole chart:  catcher dWAR.  Again: I’m telling you this so that you can feel free to consider/ignore data at your own discretion/peril.  This is my take on the data I found; if you wish to counter then I’d encourage you to either (a) add a comment below; or (b) join our staff here at TomahawkTake.com and write your own bit!

On ‘percentiles’.  This is just like when you took standardized tests in school:  if you’re at the 70th percentile, that means 30% of the kids were better than you – 69% were worse.  Ergo, 100th percentile is the best, zero is the worst.  Values above or below 80th and 20th percentiles are highlighted.

Bench players are being ignored – partly because it is difficult to identify all of them around baseball, and partly because… well, we know Atlanta’s contributors have been awful.

Catchers

Evan Gattis. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

EVAN GATTIS.  102 games played.  38 players compared.  .832 OPS/+0.9 dWAR

• OFFENSE RANK 5/38 (89th percentile)
• DEFENSE RANK 31/38 (21st percentile)
• COMBINATION 18/38 (55th percentile)

Notes:  Gerald Laird did not qualify, as he had 162 PA.  You don’t want to know about his .549 OPS anyway.  Only Jose Molina ranked worse among those 38 other catchers.

First Basemen

FREDDIE FREEMAN.  149 games players.  52 players compared.  .866 OPS/-11.5 dWAR

• OFFENSE RANK 8/52 (87th percentile)
• DEFENSE RANK 41/52 (23rd percentile)
• COMBINATION 19/52 (65th percentile)

Notes:  The eye-opener here is the defensive rank.  Two keys are at play here:  (1) Freddie truly has limited range at 1st, and thus will always be hammered by the defensive metrics; (2) his “scoops” are way down from 2013… half the rate from last year.  So whether that’s from a worse performance (not so much) or better throws to him overall (that’s my call), Freddie actually gets downgraded for this.  in 2013, that number was -8.7.

Second Basemen

TOMMY LA STELLA.  89 games players.  46 players compared.  .658 OPS/-2.8 dWAR

• OFFENSE RANK 25/46 (48th percentile)
• DEFENSE RANK 32/46 (33rd percentile)
• COMBINATION 27.3/46 (43rd percentile)

Notes:  Tommy’s torrid offensive start has clearly come back to earth, but even so, Braves’ fans will certainly give him a pass because (a) of who he replaced; (b) he’s still a rookie; and (c) his strikeout rate is still only half that of the team’s average.  In terms of defense, I personally expect that to improve slightly – probably to about the league average.  Offensively, he is eventually a .750-ish OPS guy.

Note #2:  Philip Gosselin is still under 100 PA’s – and has played 4 different positions, so he’s still too early/too soon to rank.  For the record:  .710 OPS/0.9 dWAR to date.

Third Basemen

Chris Johnson. Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports

CHRIS JOHNSON.  142 games players.  44 players compared.  .647 OPS/-0.2 dWAR

• OFFENSE RANK 36/44 (20th percentile)
• DEFENSE RANK 29/44 (36th percentile)
• COMBINATION 33.7/44 (26th percentile)

Notes:  Who would have ever figured this:  Chris Johnson with a better defensive year than offensive?  Yet with a batting average in the .260’s and a sub-.300 OBP, that’s where we are.  He still has a high BABIP (.345), but the contrast from 2013 is mind-blowing.  I will give him credit for improving his defense, though:  that’s difficult to do for a guy nearly 30 years old, but it’s true:  his errors are way down (5 vs. 14 in 2014).  The difference is mostly in fielding, too: only 1 fielding error so far.

Shortstops

ANDRELTON SIMMONS.  135 games players.  41 players compared.  .615 OPS/+18.5 dWAR

• OFFENSE RANK 31/41 (27th percentile)
• DEFENSE RANK 4/41 (93rd percentile)
• COMBINATION 22/41 (49th percentile)

Notes:  Two head-scratchers:  offense and defense.  OPS was 71 points higher last year; dWAR was over 30, with defensive runs saves significantly higher as well.  Yes – he’s been valuable, but not nearly like he was in 2013 and horrible on offense since the break.

Left Fielders

JUSTIN UPTON.  142 games players.  62 players compared.  .853 OPS/-4.4 dWAR

• OFFENSE RANK 7/62   (90th percentile)
• DEFENSE RANK 29/62 (55th percentile)
• COMBINATION 14.3/62 (78th percentile)

Notes:  Justin is not very good on defense – the kicked ball yesterday was merely a symptom.  He has 8 errors (7 fielding), which double up on last year’s totals.  But obviously (as he’s closing in on 100 RBI), when he gets hot, you can’t stop his bat.

Center Fielders

B.J. UPTON.  131 games players.  54 players compared.  .616 OPS/-1.8 dWAR

• OFFENSE RANK 47/54 (15th percentile)
• DEFENSE RANK 31/54 (44th percentile)
• COMBINATION  43/54 (22nd percentile)

Notes:  Yes, this is ugly, but it’s actually compounded by the fact that Melvin hasn’t been very good in the field, either.  But there is also nobody on that chart of 54 CFers with more than 410 plate appearances that’s even close to the production fail of B.J. Upton.  The closest is Billy Hamilton with a .665 OPS… and he has 56 steals and a Top 3 defensive rating.  So if you’re looking at the whole package, B.J. is clearly the worst center fielder in the game right now.

EMILIO BONIFACIO.  99 games players.  54 players compared.  .661 OPS/-7.6 dWAR (both figures lower since joining the Braves)

• OFFENSE RANK 42/54 (24th percentile)
• DEFENSE RANK 13/54 (78th percentile)
• COMBINATION  32/54 (42nd percentile)

Notes:  He’s a little better than B.J. – it’s hard not to be.  However, his production has waned since the trade – likely due to less playing time.

Right Fielders

Jason Heyward (22). Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

JASON HEYWARD.  141 games players.  53 players compared.  .745 OPS/+19.2 dWAR

• OFFENSE RANK 20/53 (64th percentile)
• DEFENSE RANK 1st/53 (100th percentile)
• COMBINATION 13.7/53 (76th percentile)

Notes:  Everybody has talked about his defense this year – and he’s clearly the front-runner for his second Gold Glove.  On offense, he’s easily better than most.  And that despite being used as a leadoff hitter for much of the year, which truly isn’t the ideal spot for Jason.

Totals

Statistically, it is tricky (i.e., “wrong”) to do this, but I’m going to anyway for illustrative purposes:  I have combined all of the percentiles for all the ‘regular’ position players above to give you a complete score for the Braves:

• TEAM OFFENSE RANK – 52nd percentile
• TEAM DEFENSE RANK – 54th percentile
• TEAM COMBINATION – 51st percentile

These numbers are for a team now sitting at 1 game above .500 (75-74) and a run differential of minus 1.

Now you know why.