The Vultures are Circling: Gammons Weighs In
It doesn’t take long for the speculation to begin, does it?
In a notes/news column from Peter Gammons this afternoon, Peter seems to suggest that Frank Wren is the man of the hottest seat in Atlanta. Here are his remarks, in full:
"Speculation had been centered on the futures of Frank Wren and Fredi Gonzalez long before the Nationals clinched in Turner Field, making the Braves 58-69 since April 27. Bobby Cox remains a staunch Gonzalez defender, and despite leading the league in quality starts—helped by Wren picking up Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang after losing three-fifths of their rotation—the offense has been dreadful, second-to-last in the league in runs.John Hart, who is one of John Schuerholz’s closest friends, may be asked to oversee the baseball operation, maybe as GM, maybe as an overseer, as was his role in Texas with Jon Daniels, as it appears John Coppolella is a prime young GM candidate."
Interpretation
Several Points:
- While it’s hardly a lock, Gammons’ mention of the “Bobby Cox Shadow Effect” seems to suggest (to me) that he believes Gonzalez could have a chance to survive the purge that appears inevitable in Atlanta. I might be reading too much into that, but that’s why I copied the entire write-up above: so you can make your own call.
- The John Hart reference is interesting. Our own speculation at the beginning of the season is that Hart was likely the architect of the flurry of contract extensions enacted at the beginning of the year – but as we’ve also pointed out, it is that volume of contracts that may have frozen Wren’s ability to act more swiftly/decisively in-season when it became apparent that the offense wasn’t working.
- Gammons mentions the pickups of Santana and Harang as plusses, though Wren was also the instigator of the Dan Uggla and B.J Upton deals.
- Jon Daniels may not be a great model to reference: he hasn’t exactly had a smooth ride in Texas. Aside from their injury woes, of course, there have been several questionable deals – highlighted perhaps by the Prince Fielder trade of this past off-season, plus the failure to re-sign several players that have now excelled elsewhere.
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John Coppolella is an interesting name.
He is the Braves Assistant GM and former director of professional scouting. 3 full years ago,
as a future GM candidate. He’s been with the organization now for 9 years, and thus would be both a fulfillment of “hire from within” preference of the team plus supporting Gammons’ John-Hart-as-overseer comment.
Overall…
It’s accurate to say that there is a lot of “smoke” building around this floundering team. When would moves be made? In terms of on-field team management, this could happen the day after the season ends. Front office staff? Could be at any point.
The Braves typically have a few days of “organizational retreat” to reflect, review, and plan. This takes place in either late October or early November each year. Hard to imagine any lame ducks being in on that trip, so if changes are in the offing… expect them to be complete by that point.
It is truly an unfortunate situation all around. Ultimately, it is the players on the field that determine whether any roster move is “good” or “bad.” This is still essentially the same team – on offense – that came up with 96 wins in 2013. The pitching has clearly been sufficient. It is the offense of 2014, however, that will cost several people their livelihood.