Free Agent Preview – Braves contracts
This week, we will evaluate the upcoming free agents by position, but before we do that, we should take a look at the free agents and arbitration-eligible players on the Braves for 2015.
*Disclaimer: This series is a preview before the end of the season, so many players may have options that are picked up.
Free agents:
Ervin Santana, RHP, $14.1M salary in 2014
Gavin Floyd, RHP, $4M
Ryan Doumit, C/OF, $3.5M
Emilio Bonifacio, IF/OF, $2.5M
Gerald Laird, C, $1.5M
Aaron Harang, SP, $1M
Arbitration:
Kris Medlen, RHP, $5.8M salary in 2014
Mike Minor, LHP, $3.85M
James Russell, LHP, $1.775M
Jonny Venters, LHP, $1.625M
Jordan Walden, RHP, $1.49M
Brandon Beachy, RHP, $1.45M
Ramiro Pena, IF, $700K
David Carpenter, RHP, $532,500
Looking at that list, you can see that the Braves have some big decisions to make, especially in their pitching staff. Here’s what I would do:
Santana – Offer a qualifying offer and a 3 year/$40M type of offer and see if he bites. If not, take the draft pick. Two solid seasons in a row should at least get him some bites in the free agent market, so the offer would make sense more this year than it did for him last year.
Floyd – I would love to see Floyd come back. He was having an excellent season with the Braves, and from all accounts, he loved pitching in Atlanta. He also may fly a bit under the radar due to many people hearing elbow injury and assuming ligament issues, but Floyd had a break. Depending on the reports from his recovery, I’d be very interested in having him around for the next couple of years.
Doumit – Let him go. While many thought the third catcher on the roster would be a nice benefit for the Braves, Doumit has played a total of 18 innings behind the plate this year, and his bat was certainly not worth $3.5M off the bench.
Bonifacio – I’d like to see him back with the team, if costs are not an issue. He could be a very nice piece to fill in around the diamond for the team, but he could also have some good offers from places that would have him start as well.
Laird – He’s been a great backup with Evan Gattis, and I believe he’d be an excellent mentor for Christian Bethancourt as well, but there are a lot of very similar guys, including Atlanta fan favorite David Ross, who would be available for that role in the offseason catching market. I’d find out where the market was on a few of the guys we’ll review tomorrow before deciding on an offer to Laird.
Harang – At $1M, he’s provided more than his contract in value for the Braves, but with guys like David Hale and Jason Hursh ready to be the #5 guy in the Atlanta rotation and Medlen hoping for a return in 2015, Harang may not have a role. Frankly, guys like Harang can usually be found on the cheap late in the spring if another armageddon of the rotation happens next spring.
Medlen – With the rumors swirling about Frank Wren‘s future with the team, Medlen’s contract may be in a new GM’s hands, though most likely that GM is right in the Braves front office in John Hart. Hart has experience working with an arbitration-eligible pitcher coming off of injury, and his contract with Charles Nagy was one of his first brilliant extensions during his time in Cleveland. Something similar would work well with Medlen – a deal for 2-4 years with a low 2015 salary and built heavily on performance benefits for Medlen that would be fairly achievable if he returned to full strength.
Minor – He is a conundrum. May and August Minor would be worthy of a long-term extension like Julio Teheran signed last offseason. June/July Minor would be overpaid at his current salary for 2015. With the injury stuff this year, that shoulder really worries me, like Tommy Hanson worries me. I’d pay him arbitration one more year, which will likely end up between $6-7.5M.
Russell – He was a nice acquisition, but he’s a lefty that doesn’t get out lefties. The Braves have a younger guy in Chasen Shreve who does basically the same thing, but still has upside to actually play up against lefties. He’s not drastically overpaid, so he could be an early winter trade candidate as the Braves look to find someone willing to pay him roughly $3M that he’ll earn in arbitration.
Venters – Sadly, he has to be let go. He could be signed to a minor league deal if no one picks him up after the Braves put him on waivers, but he’s simply not worth the minimum $1.5M salary he’ll earn in 2015 to the Braves’ limited payroll.
Walden – Entering his second year of arbitration, Walden will still be relatively cheap, most likely in the $2.5M-$3.5M range, and while he frustrates fans, there’s no arguing that he has late-inning stuff and when he’s on, he’s a major asset in the bullpen.
Beachy – Unless some amazing news comes out soon, I have a feeling he’ll be waived as well, unless the organization believes he’s worth a 2-3 year deal like I mentioned with Medlen. I love the guy, so I’d make that offer for sure, but I’m not sure if Beachy and his camp would take it.
Pena – He’s played quite well for the Braves as their backup utility infielder. I’m not sure if he and Bonifacio both fit on the team, but Pena at ~$1M is a fairly decent asset. I’d inquire with his agent about a contract in that range to avoid arbitration, and if he’s not willing to go for that, use guys like Gosselin or Pastornicky in that role in 2015 and use the money elsewhere.
Carpenter – This guy went through an offseason of being the goat for Braves fans everywhere. He’s not been what he was in 2013, but his peripherals are all the same. He’s pitched at about a 2.75 ERA level in both 2013 and 2014, but good luck had him with a 1.75 ERA in 2013 and poor luck has him at a 3.5 ERA in 2014 with similar other numbers. I’d easily sign him back as he’ll likely cost roughly $750K and provide another similar season in 2015.
Check back this week as we look at each position group in free agency and how they fit with the Braves future plans!