John Hart Speaks About the Braves Upcoming Off-season
In an article by Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution appearing at myajc.com this morning, John Hart has given his first hints of the upcoming off-season for Atlanta.
One thing to note when checking out this write-up is that Jeff Schultz tends to be the ‘angry Braves fan’ when writing about this team – if there’s a complaint to be found or pessimism to be expressed, he will find it and expound upon it. That first few paragraphs of his story today will confirm that.
That said – and also noting that there is “GM-speak” to filter as well, there are a few surprises here. Here’s one, perhaps:
- [Hart] will run things for at least the next month or maybe longer.
My interpretation: this could linger into the December Winter Meetings. If so, then the Braves want to make sure they have an experienced hand directing the “off-season changes” that we’re expecting to see. No young whipper-snapper trying to exercise his new-found powers, not one who hasn’t been with the organization for … well, at least a year.
More importantly… and this clearly becomes speculation on my part… somebody who can get the best deals possible for the players that the club wants to move.
Strikeouts and Personnel
Hart related this to Schultz:
"“We don’t need an overhaul. It’s not a disaster. But there are certainly some things we need to take a look, although I’m not at liberty to discuss names right now.”"
Can we guess at exactly who he might have in mind? Yes – I think we can. Quoting again from the article:
"“there’s not a lot of team speed, and you can’t play a lot of action baseball.” He also referenced the decrease in power and “strikeouts are at an historical high.”"
On today’s Morning Chop, I cited the top 10 Braves’ strikeout seasons. That list was posted because of this quote. There are two names of particular interest on it.
Live Feed
Fly War Eagle
Of the personnel philosophies employed by Frank Wren, the one I personally disagree the most with involved not being concerned with high-strikeout hitters. These two – along with
Dan Uggla– were the poster children of that mentality. They are not indicative of a lack of team speed – Justin is average; B.J. is fast – but certainly the strikeouts tend to snuff rallies and significantly change the way you can play situational baseball.
A 1-out strikeout with runners in scoring position can be the catalyst to ending a threat, for instant, because with that, you cannot ‘trade a run for an out’, for instance. The sacrifice fly is taken out of play; so is the hit-and-run. So many more things can happen when you are a threat to put the ball into play. But with four members of the lineup having 140+ K’s, this is a problem for Atlanta.
Trading Justin would be “selling high” as he is finishing his first 100 RBI campaign, plus he’s a full year from free agency. Do expect Justin to be traded this Fall. Trading B.J. will be extremely difficult, though Wren was making some progress at doing just that back in July, so it may actually be possible.
Trades Will Be Important.
This is because Hart mentions “economic challenges.” He does not wish to dabble into free agency, but would prefer to use trades to reposition the team. That tells me something else:
- He definitely wants to get rid of B.J. Upton… even if it means eating a bunch of cash.
There are multiple opinions on the status of the Dan Uggla contract: the Braves TV hosts were suggesting this week that his contract has already been paid out. I have seen other opinions that the contract is paid out incrementally – just as if he were still on the club – through 2015. Either way, that’s lost money that does not get replaced, and serves to (effectively) lower the amount of the next team payroll budget.
This situation could impact the fates of pitchers such as Kris Medlen or Mike Minor – set to make quite a bit next year. In Kris’ case, he is a free agent after 2015 and will have to prove himself to be healthy. But I’m not convinced that the Braves would risk ~$6-ish million in the hope that he can return to form.
Leadership
Hart went further:
"“The club is missing a veteran presence. It showed when the wheels came off and there was no go-to player. You don’t need guys to holler or run around like their hair is on fire, but you need veterans, even if they’re on the bench. When I was in Cleveland I made a point of signing guys like Eddie Murray, Tony Pena and Orel Hershiser.”"
Yes. In my commentary from earlier in the week, I cited the loss of Tim Hudson, Brian McCann, and Reed Johnson all at the same time as being large blows to the leadership of the club. I sometimes have snickered at the notion of picking up a player for the sake of “Veteran Presents”, but in this case, the loss of that particular trio left a tangible void in the locker room that has been felt for a large portion of the season. No one has stepped up to that role. The result has been another September to forget.
Future
Schultz’ heart skipped a beat when talking about the future with Hart, as Hart pointed to 2017 (opening the new stadium) as a focus point for the organization. Schultz is hoping that this did not mean that the Braves would be re-building over both 2015 and 2016.
But in the meantime, the fan base took a big hit this season: 17th in attendance and lowest since 2004. And Braves’ fans aren’t exactly used to the notion of a ‘rebuilding year.’
If I’m reading between the lines correctly, I do like what I heard from Hart. Now we just have to sit back and wait to see how all of that plays out. In the meantime… don’t hold you breath about seeing an announcement on a new GM real soon… unless it’s Hart himself.