For Changes To Come Fredi Gonzalez Must Go

Sunday the Braves finished the season by beating the Phillies and Cole Hamels. Today the post season shakeup begins. Voices of experts who watch the Braves from afar and those who are too close to be objective say Fredi Gonzalez should be stay. I say they’re wrong. Gonzalez needs to find a new job.

It Isn’t Change If Leadership Doesn’t Change

John Hart said in his many interviews last week than changes would begin in earnest today when the big three put their heads together to reinvigorate the Braves Way. He spoke of the need for leadership and a new direction; a change in the way the team was built and what the philosophy must be. Yet he’s still talking about keeping Gonzalez.

"John Hart just told us that he’d like to go forward w/ Fredi Gonzalez & that he deserves to come back for another year @MLBNetworkRadio"

It’s makes little sense to say on one hand that the team lacked leadership while at the same time saying that the current leader should stay. It doesn’t make sense.

Support for the status quo brings few changes

Gonzalez’ supporters say that considering what he’s been given to work with he’s done well. His most ardent supporter – Bobby Cox – said he’d done an outstanding job. To understand why Bobby would say that you first have to understand their relationship.

While Gonzalez came up through the managerial ranks as a Marlin and had winning seasons in their minor league system, he really stepped forward as third base coach for Cox. The two developed a deep personal relationship and Cox treats Gonzalez like a son while Gonzalez speaks reverently of Bobby and what he learned from him. That in and of itself should disqualify him in this decision making process but there’s more to it.

I felt that Cox left after the 2010 season more because he was fed up trying to get along with Frank Wren than a desire to walk away from the game. After Wren’s firing word got out that the two disliked each other on a personal level; Wren was the only executive specifically left out of Bobby’s retirement speech in spite of the fact that he worked under him for 11 seasons. Bobby’s been around the team but not intimately involved since his retirement but additional news following the firing indicated that he’s been bored being “on the outside.” While he attended official functions and gave interviews over that time supporting the team, that loyalty did not infer a wholehearted support of the Wren front office.

The animosity between the two men meant that Bobby’s advice and council wasn’t sought and he drifted in that nether land between figurehead and anonymity.  Bobby blames the demise of the “Braves Way” on Wren but that’s not the case, That philosophy started to end after a 2003 season when the team lost $40M and began reading budgets instead of scouting reports first when player moves.

Wren certainly sped up the process but he wasn’t the catalyst. Cox’ dislike for Wren skews his perception of what’s happened and why. For him this is a way to exact revenge while supporting a man he’s mentored and virtually adopted into his family.

When Cox’ support came out Craig Calceterra over at Hardball Talk put the possibility of Gonzalez extension like this.

"It’s possible Cox has the ulterior motive of boosting his own legacy as Braves manager by ensuring that an underwhelming successor stays in place for a long time. It worked for Casey Stengel. It’s also possible that Cox has been brainwashed, Manchurian Candidate-style, by the Nationals. Because all I know is that the Nats fans in my Twitter feed were thrilled to hear this."

What was he supposed to do?

He was supposed to lead. That is after all is said and done, the manager’s job even if – as is usually the case – it isn’t easy. I’ve said over Gonzalez tenure both here and on radio that he’d been given an unbalanced roster that wasn’t capable of making the needed adjustments when the way they always did things didn’t work. The analogy of being given a toolbox containing 5 pound sledge hammers and being asked to drive carpet tacks into sheetrock is one I used.

It’s hard to hit and run when your team has no speed. It’s hard to bunt when everyone is long ball hungry. It was a rough job and an unfair tasking. However, it’s a job many managers have done over the years with success and without having the team go in the tank at the end of the season.

In San Diego Bud Black was given a lineup with no power and played in a ballpark that seemed as big as the Grand Canyon to hitters. The ownership was stingy and when he did get a good player management traded that player for prospects that never quite worked. Both the Braves and the Padres finished 17 games back this year but the Padres were five games over 500 for the second half (36-31) while the Braves were thirteen games under (27-40.)  Down the stretch the Braves stumbled and fumbled around while the Padres continued to play good baseball.

In August and September the Padres were four games over 500. During that time they:

• Swept the Giants once taking four of seven overall.
• Swept the Braves
• Took three of six from the Dodgers, and
• Took two of three from Pittsburgh and the Brewers.

The Braves lineup (I should say lineups as there were far too many to count) boasted high  paid under-performing stars that seemed to be in a trance. The Padres lineup had no player hitting higher than .266 (Seth Smith), only two qualified players with and OBP over .300 and just three slugging over 400; no one over .440. If I asked you top name 5 of their starting nine it’s unlikely that the many could do it.

The Braves had five players at .263 or higher, five with an OBP of .317 or higher and three slugging .461 or better. The Braves scored 99 runs in August and 59 (yes fifty-nine) in September while the punchless Padres scored 102 and 93 respectively.  The Braves had four walk off wins this season and the Padres eleven.

I completely understand the differences in the divisions but that alone doesn’t explain the differences in performance. The key ingredient the Padres had that was missing from the Braves was a manager who would not allow them to quit. Padres GM A.J. Preller told Barry Bloom of MLB.com why he chose to retain Black.

"“You see the fact that the team plays hard every night,” he said. “They’ve definitely taken this thing to the finish line. As a group, they play with energy, they’re coming hard, they’re playing pretty good baseball overall. And I think that’s reflective on the coaching staff and the manager, for sure.”"

So when someone says to you what was Gonzalez supposed to do, tell them he was supposed to lead them team like Bud Black led the Padres.

In game management

Fans know that Fredi Gonzalez in game management left a lot to be desired. Not only did he insist on hitting the worst hitters in the lineup at the top ( I know about the idea that he was pressured and will address that) but few players had any idea  – aside from Freddie Freeman and Justin Upton – where they might hit. Those who say it makes no difference are wrong. Ask any major league player and he’ll tell you that there are spots he’s comfortable in and spots he isn’t. Above all they want consistency. Using 100+ different lineups is not consistency.

The bullpen has always been an issue for Gonzalez and this year was no better. It’s true that our left handed relief failed him and he had some injuries but there were still plenty of head scratchers this season.  IN the playoffs against the Dodgers last year he left Craig Kimbrel standing infuriated in the bullpen when the game was on the line because it was the eighth inning and not the ninth. This year he brought him in to keep the status quo in the eleventh then left him out there to throw 38 pitches when gave up the lead and he clearly didn’t have it.  Once a closer gives it up leaving him there to take one for the team is not a proven strategy, He’s you closer, you might need him tomorrow. Take him out.  Kimbrel didn’t pitch again for six days which raises the next issue; rust.

While Kimbrel was still among the best in the game this year, he had control issues from day one. Kimbrel needs to pitch at least every third or fourth day or he loses his groove. Keeping the bullpen fresh is a delicate balance between over using them and under using them.  Fredi hasn’t figured that balance out and let his closer get rusty.

Pinch hitting is another sore subject. I know full well the bench was weak yet Fredi – touted by the Braves as a stats oriented manager – consistently sent people up against their splits. The worst cases were Jordan Schafer before his trade and Emilio Bonifacio after his.

Schafer isn’t great off the bench but that problem is multiplied when you send him to face a hard throwing left handed pitcher fresh out of the pen. That happened a lot before his release. In one of the rare times when Gonzalez – who appeared to pick a lineup by throwing darts -started Schafer it was against a left  handed pitcher. He went 0-4 and that was not a surprise.

Emilio Bonifacio’s L/R split leans heavily in favor of facing LHP. Gonzalez regularly used him to pinch hit or start against RHP. I stress again that I understand the limitations and I know that even with his split Bonifacio’s numbers were better than B.J. Upton’s but starting B.J. against a lefty was actually a reverse split as well. B.J. hit 10 points higher and had a better slugging ratio against RHP.

The list continues with the odd use of Tommy La Stella versus Ramiro Pena but you get the idea; the season consisted of little lineup rhyme or reason and no identifiable plan.

Under Pressure?

I said most of the year that I felt Gonzalez managerial moves were being dictated to a large extent by Frank Wren. The news that Wren used to give hitters tips via text message and word that he’s a micro manager support that. So Gonzalez was under pressure and we should give him a pass? No.

I know it’s easy for me to say but at some point when you see that his way isn’t working you have to bow your neck and do things the way you think is best. That’s called leadership.  If Wren was pushing him around he had to push back and keep pushing back.

Standing up to Wren might have gotten him fired but he might well get fired anyway.  It sounds like Wren’s boss probably wouldn’t have let that happen. So if Fredi wanted to sit B.J. and play Schafer he should have. It might not have worked but at least he’d be respected by the team for doing what he thought was right.  That is I think what happened towards the end.

Gonzalez continued to do the same things in the second half that had not worked in the first. The players knew it wasn’t working and wanted leadership from him. Whether under pressure from Wren or because he wanted to, the thing Gonzalez did failed and he did nothing about it.  What could he have done?  Let’s take fundamental baseball as a short example.

When the Orioles were throwing the ball all around the diamond  and looking like a minor league team Buck Showlater had them out taking extra infield until they got it right. When the Dodgers outfield was airmailing the ball instead of hitting the cutoff man Don Mattingly had them out practicing that until they got it right.

When the Braves couldn’t get a bunt down Gonzalez did. . .? When hitters weren’t even attempting to hit behind the runner, Gonzalez did. . .? How do we know? We know because reporters can tell you what every player has for lunch every day. Nothing goes unreported and I saw no reports.

That’s the hitting coach’s job?  Okay I’ll give you that. But, if the hitting coach isn’t doing the necessary his boss – Gonzalez – should make sure he does. Gonzalez had resources he could have used to augment the hitting coaches if they were somehow to busy to do what he told them to do. It all comes back to the manager.  Doing the right thing isn’t easy but it’s always right. The only question then is, did he know what the right thing was and try to do it? From observation we can say only ‘I don’t know’ and no.

That’s A Wrap

While all the noise from Atlanta points to Gonzalez staying on I hold out hope that it is mostly noise and that the new GM is smart enough to bring in his own man to work his own plan. I don’t believe that Hart wants the job nor do I think the Braves are ready to hand it to John Coppolella who worked so closely with Wren yet. I looked at three potential candidates last week and will cover a few more this but neither I nor any of the insiders know what’s actually going to happen yet.

Managerial candidates are becoming available everyday. Ron Washington did a superb job with the Rangers but he may not be ready to return yet. Ron Gardenhire was (shockingly) fired today by the Twins and Gardy is a great manager who uses talent well. The much maligned by fans Schafer for example  left Atlanta and a manager that didn’t believe in him where he hit .163/.256/.213/.468. He was snapped up by the Twins and while playing for Gardy who believes in all of his players all the time became a regular outfielder and hit 285/.345/.362/.707.  There are other names out there but until we get a new – hopefully open minded forward thinking GM – we won’t get a definitive answer.

The Braves way has never been about a dogmatic complex philosophy. Instead it’s been the simple idea that the team comes first, players must be quality people as well as quality players, pitching and defense win and sound leadership of a good mix of younger players with veterans is best.  Time will tell whether the three men chosen to right the ship are the dream team or become the Sunshine Boys.