Offseason: If I were Atlanta Braves GM
By Ryan Cothran
John Hart, current and temporary GM for the Atlanta Braves…
…had this to say about the team as is currently built:
"“We don’t need an overhaul. It’s not a disaster. But there are certainly some things we need to take a look, although I’m not at liberty to discuss names right now….there’s not a lot of team speed, and you can’t play a lot of action baseball.”"
Hart, although not my pick for long-term General Manager for the Braves, seems to understand that this team, for the most part, has some very good parts. Yet, the most glaring absences being lack of speed and the lack of good contact, need to be addressed.
In this post, I’ll try to circumnavigate the Braves’ roster, look for the weaknesses mentioned by Hart, address the weakness via trade, free agency, and from the minors, and build a team that could compete in the long-term as well as the short. Hopefully, the rest of the staff at Tomahawk Take will jump on board and give us their individual take on how to rebuild the team to its former glory. Ok, we’re really doing this, you guys!
Atlanta Braves Players to Keep
It’s important to know what the core of a team is, and in my opinion, it seems quite obvious (with the exception of one player) who those players are on the Atlanta Braves. Here are the players that I would keep in 2015.
Starting Pitchers: Julio Teheran, Alex Wood
Position Players: Freddie Freeman, Andrelton Simmons, Phil Gosselin, Jason Heyward, *Evan Gattis
Relievers: Craig Kimbrel, David Carpenter, Shae Simmons, Chasen Shreve
*Gattis’ bat is too cheap and too valuable to let walk this early. His trade value will still be their come 2015’s offseason should Bethancourt finally show he’s ready for the Majors. Until then, give me the Bear!
Atlanta Braves Players to Shop
Starting Pitchers: Mike Minor
Position players: Tommy La Stella, Justin Upton, Christian Bethancourt
Relievers: Jordan Walden, Luis Avilan, James Russell, Anthony Varvaro, David Hale, Juan Jaime
Atlanta Braves Players that Must GO!
Position Players: B.J. Upton, Chris Johnson, Ramiro Pena
So, what went wrong with the 2014 Atlanta Braves?
The Braves were an imbalanced team in 2014, and the entire Major Leagues knew it. Reason? They were essentially the same team from the year prior: built for home runs, built for Ks. So what was different from one year to the next that caused such a dramatic change in record? Freddie Freeman is a pretty reliable offensive candidate to study as he seems fairly consistent, so let’s dive in to see what was the smallest of differences in Freddie’s 2014 approach compared to 2013.
1. In 2013, Freddie swung at 85.7% of pitches thrown in the strike zone. In 2014, that number decreased to 79.7, a 6% drop.
2. In 2013, when Freddie swung at pitches outside the zone, he made contact 69.5% of the time. 2014 also saw a 6% drop in this number.
Conclusion: Quite simple, really. Freddie’s K-rate increased slightly and his SLG decreased slightly due to swinging at balls in the zone less, and making contact with balls outside the zone less. I think we as Braves fans can come up with fairly simple reasoning for both. When a team strikes out at much as the Braves do, when runners are on base, the RBI machines have to extend their zones. On the contrary, when the Braves go through periods like they did this year when runs were scarce, people like Freddie were a bit more selective when bases were empty, which so often happens when Freddie comes to the plate. The scouting report seemed quite simple against the Braves this year: throw less strikes.
Blanketed observation: For the entire year, it seemed as though this team was fighting an uphill battle against the looming strikeout that was just around the corner. When a team that is built on the home run starts pressing for runs, the entire team extends their K-zone. With the scouting that’s out there, it seemed fairly easy to pick up on this weakness that spread throughout the entire lineup.
So….what to fix to make the 2015 offense less putrid than 2014’s?
1. Infiltrate speed, contact, and patience into lineup that should naturally hit a few HRs. Turner Field isn’t the Launching Pad that Fulton County was and the Braves should build a team that fits the ballpark, very similar to the Braves of 2012.
2. Optimize players’ strengths
Let’s play Atlanta Braves GM!
Trades
1. Get rid of B.J.- I don’t believe that the Braves can actually pull off a trade that involves B.J. without packaging a few cost-controlled players. The Cubs still seem like the most likely destination as they are in need of a CF next year and are loaded with position prospects, but have very few pitching prospects. However, I’d like to see the Braves get a bit more out of this trade than just a rebound player. First GM move: Trade B.J. Upton and Mike Minor plus 10MM (split among the 3 seasons) for Edwin Jackson, Luis Valbuena, and Chris Coghlan. Coghlan can fake all OF spots and is a very good LH hitter off of the bench. Edwin Jackson has been an utter fail this year, but should be able to rebound quite nicely behind a good defense. Valbuena will be squeezed out of 3b due to the monster that is Kris Bryant coming up from the Minors.
2. Trade Jordan Walden, Juan Jaime, and Luis Avilan to the Houston Astros for Dexter Fowler– As our own Fred mentioned to me in a post, Dexter Fowler would be the kind of player that the Astros would shop in 2015 as he’s one year removed from free agency, and the Astros have a bit of a CF surplus in their very talented up and coming outfield (Domingo Santana, George Springer). The Astros are also looking to rebuild their bullpen, and the Braves have a lot of pieces to help in that department.
3. Trade Justin Upton to an OF hungry team for prospects– The Braves will be moving into a new stadium come 2017, and right now the farm doesn’t look like it’s going to be helping fill out the roster. A team would probably let go of 2-3 top-20 prospects to be able to insert Justin into their everyday 2015 lineup.
4. Trade Chris Johnson for a fringe prospect or reliever– The idea would be to get out of the money owed to Chris, not the return.
Free Agent Acquisitions
Grab some veteran leadership- I never believed in veteran leadership. After 2014, I can say without a doubt I’ve been convinced otherwise.
1. Sign Torii Hunter, 2 year 20MM
2. David Ross 1 year 2MM
3. Go hard after 2nd tier frontline: Lester or Scherzer will be the 2 top SP of the free agent market. However Shields should get more along the 15MM-17/year range. a 5 year/75-80MM deal would be a good investment.
4. Go hard after a top LH reliever: Andrew Miller preferably, but there’s many on the market that would suffice.
5. Re-vamp another broken down starter’s career on the cheap. Wandy Rodriguez? Josh Beckett? Aaron Harang again?
The Atlanta Braves 2015 Team
Catcher- Evan Gattis
1B- Freddie Freeman
2b- Jose Peraza, Tommy La Stella
SS- Andrelton Simmons
3b- Phil Gosselin, Luis Valbuena
LF- Torii Hunter
CF- Dexter Fowler
RF- Jason Heyward
Bench- David Ross, Valbuena/Gosselin, La Stella/Peraza, Coghlan, Terdoslavich
Starting Pitchers- James Shields, Teheran, Wood, ??????, Hale
Bullpen: Kimbrel, S. Simmons, Shreve, Russell, A. Miller, Carpenter, Varvaro
Payroll- 95-100 million
Conclusion: Team is built on defense, patience, and speed around the horn with a few interchangeable parts in Peraza and Gosselin, and sprinkled with power in Gattis and Freeman as the heavy hitters with many guys capable of 10-15/year. This team will likely not lead the league in home runs, but would likely swipe a few bases, get on base often, and be very fun to watch.
Other players I’d like to see the Braves target via trade or free agency: Daniel Nava, Allen Craig (a great buy-low candidate, if healthy), Shane Victorino, Emilio Bonifacio, Jed Lowrie, Jonny Gomes, Brandon McCarthy.