House That Hank Built
Fansided

Braves Pitching for 2015: Finding Innings

By Alan Carpenter

facebooktwitterreddit

When we look back at the Braves 2014 season – something we didn’t actually expect to be doing on October 7th – there’s clearly a laundry list of things that we want John Hart (or whoever) to fix:

  • The Offense
  • The Bullpen
  • BJ Upton (that word “fix” has multiple meanings in this case)
  • The Offense

The biggest needs and toughest calls to make may not be on that list, though.  It’s the starting pitching.  Here’s why:

  • Julio Teheran.  221 innings.  Still with us, but can he repeat that durability (1st time over 200 innings)?
  • Ervin Santana.  196 innings.  Free agent.
  • Aaron Harang.  204 innings.  Free agent.
  • Alex Wood.  156 innings.  Still with us, career high innings as well (had 15 more in relief); skipped last start as a precaution.
  • Mike Minor.  145 innings.  Still with us; has done 200 innings, but battled various ailments in 2014.  Also skipped last start.
  • Gavin Floyd.  54 innings.  Free agent with more wiring in his arm than an AT&T switchboard.

That’s 454 innings among 3 free agents; 555 from the others (counting David Hale‘s 33 innings as a starter – I’m not counting James Russell).

To replace those innings, you’ve got to find 3 starting pitchers.

How do you do that, exactly?

Options… the list is long, but not great

Live Feed

Has Braves window to extend Max Fried already passed them by?
Has Braves window to extend Max Fried already passed them by? /

FanSided

  • A Braves trade for dark horse Dansby Swanson replacementFanSided
  • Braves rumors: A Dansby Swanson replacement no one has thought of yetFanSided
  • 3 Braves players who must outperform 2022 to get back to World SeriesFanSided
  • Braves fans will love everything Sean Murphy said about signing extensionFanSided
  • Grading the Braves 4 biggest moves of the offseason so farFanSided

    • On September 25th,

    Ben gave us the full list of free agent pitchers

    available.

    There are 45 names on Ben’s list

    … which sounds like a lot until you dig a little.  Some, are more “available” than others.  For example, if Cincinnati fails to pick up

    Johnny Cueto

    ‘s $10 million option, their fans should get their pitchforks and torches and start marching.

    Ben also made some suggestions on how to fill these canyon-esque holes, and I will do so as well – with details on why.

    Here are my concerns:

    • Salary
    • Risk

    The Braves have little margin for error in this process:  they have to get this right.

    The Internal Options

    Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Brandon Beachy (37) in 2013. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

    Kris Medlen.  I like Kris a lot, but there are 3 problems:  his salary, his arm (2nd Tommy John), and his last arbitration year.  He made $5.8 million in 2014, and that number can’t really go down very much at all unless he’s cut loose.  Unfortunately, his arm health also prevents a trade.  Non-tender.

  • Gavin Floyd.  We rolled his dice in 2014, and he was pitching extremely well… for six weeks. Floyd is in this list because while he’s a free agent, I would think that the Braves would have a decent shot at a re-sign if they wanted to try.  But it’s still an extreme risk.  No.
  • Brandon Beachy.  This is a tough one.  If he can come back from his own 2nd surgery, it might not be until June or so.  When right, he’s been great.  Thus he’s probably worth the risk of his (likely) $1.5m salary.  Perhaps, but for later in the year.
  • David Hale.  I am not sold on him over the long haul.  I do think he’s useful for long relief and spot starts, but that’s true about a lot of pitchers.  If he can be packaged in a trade deal, then I would be okay with that.  No.
  • Cody Martin.  Ready for the majors, but has never pitched there.  I also have concerns about his control.  No.  If other teams want him
    (as trade deadline rumors suggested), then do it – trade him.  No.
  • Jason Hursh.  Could also have a shot in Spring, but had enough poor outings at AA to be concerned that major league hitters won’t miss the pitches that AA hitters miss.  I’d have to think AAA to start the year.  No.
  • Williams Perez.  Out-pitched Hursh at AA in every category.  Career-high 133 innings in 2014, so he’s not quite ready for a full-season workload, even if the coaches think he’s major-league ready, which would be a reach.  No.
  • Greg Ross.  Great season split between Lynchburg and Pearl – 158 innings with a 2.08 at AA.  Solid control, but we need to see how his stuff plays at AAA first.  No… not yet, anyway.

    • That didn’t solve anything… now what?

    External Options

    SLOT 1.  The dreaded bad contract trade.  We discussed this at length in August:  B.J. Upton for … somebody.  There are two “bad” pitching contracts available, those being John Danks‘ and Edwin Jackson‘s.  The rumored deal was with the Cubs, so that means Jackson.  They also need a center fielder – or at least they’d be no worse off then they are now with Melvin.

    August 3, 2014; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Edwin Jackson (36). Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

    As bad as Jackson has been, his contract is cheaper ($11 m/year) and shorter (through 2016) than Upton’s.  He also still has some velocity (92-93 mph fastball).  If he can harness it early in the count, then there’s some hope.  But even if not, he’s durable – and we need innings.  The decline in his innings lately hasn’t been due to injury – it’s performance.  Make this trade – somehow – give the Cubs whatever they want.

    SLOT 2.  The solid veteran.  If you’re going to spend some money, this is the time and place to do it.  One of these three pitchers must have a pedigree with him that promises innings and performance – especially if we have to take Jackson.  I therefore present four options from the list given to us by Ben.

    • Jake Peavy.  The problem?  He will want 3-4 years and he is 34.  But he’s also the most affordable.
    • I don’t really have another name that Atlanta could actually go out and buy.

    True, there are some “pipe dream” guys available:  James Shields, Max Scherzer, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester.  All of these pitchers will be looking for something in excess of $17-18 million per year for 5+ years.  That’s just not going to happen in Atlanta.

    SLOT 3.  The risk element.  If you have been successful on the two tasks above, then here’s where you can introduce some risk to the process.  I give you these suggestions:

    • Try to re-sign Aaron Harang
    • Try to re-sign Ervin Santana
    • If Colorado nixes the club option ($12 million) for Brett Anderson, then court him.
    • If the Dodgers opts out on Chad Billingsley‘s option, then I would call him.  The problem?  He would want multiple years and maybe $12-14m each.
    • Jason Hammel.  Should be affordable since he did not fare well at Oakland after the trade from the Cubs.  Also has never exceeded 177 innings.  However, his best pitching can during his only “true” NL stint – this year with the Cubs (Colorado doesn’t count).

    Ervin Santana is an interesting case.  I do think he’s a little better than he showed us this year (which was still pretty good).  Does he get the Qualifying Offer that Atlanta was hoping to parlay into an extra 2015 draft pick?  Probably not:  he’d sign that $15 million offer in a New York minute.  But he might be worth around $12 million. 

    Atlanta has to ask themselves whether they can improve on that for less.  That will be an interesting call as we go forward, for I am looking at the available pitching and thinking ‘No, we can’t do a lot better here.’

    Note:  we don’t want another Tim Hudson situation in which we low-ball a guy and he goes elsewhere.  We were lucky Santana was still around in mid-March of 2014.

    The Wild Card

    Mike Minor.  He’s a wild card in this decision-making process for 2 reasons:

    • His own health
    • That bad-contract trade (the Cubs wanted him)

    I expect that due to all of the circumstances involved, Mike will be back in a Braves’ uniform for 2015.  We frankly need him.

    What I think will happen

    • Edwin Jackson
    • Santana or Harang… not both.
    • One of the other guys on my “slot 3′ list.
    • Mike Minor, Alex Wood, Julio Teheran fill out the rotation
    • Medlen is non-tendered and Beachy is re-upped.

    Not spectacular, but it’s a reasonable, low-risk solution.

    Let’s see what y’all think.

    Braves Pitching for 2015: Finding Innings

    Home/Braves News