The Case for Trading Justin Upton

There are going to be many difficult decisions for the next Atlanta Braves General Manager… whether that person ends up being John Coppolella or Dayton Moore (and if it’s anyone else, I’m be very surprised).  I’ve already laid out the pros and cons for trading Evan Gattis this off-season.  Intricately tied up with that decision will be this one:  whether to move Justin Upton.

On the surface, this seems a bit easier a call… but the details can be dicey.

Justin Upton (8). Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Pros

• Justin Upton had close to his best season as a pro – “selling high” is a good idea.  Career high in RBI (102), nearly so with HR (29).
• He’s 27 and still got excellent years ahead of him – teams will want Justin.
• He strikes out a lot and we are so much over that ‘high strikeouts are okay’ thing.
• We could use an upgrade in outfield defense.  Justin ranked 34th in fielding among left fielders with at least 300 innings in 2014.  Nobody was worse than him in defense ratings with the innings has amassed out there.  He was Matt Holliday/Mark Trumbo bad.  Dominic Brown was probably the worst, but Dom has other issues, too.
• His departure would open up a place for Evan Gattis to play while Christian Bethancourt catches.  While we continue to have on-going debate about that, I’ll go ahead and give you the numbers:  in 2013, Gattis ranked 38th in LF defense among 48 players… Justin was 45th that year.  [Frankly, it’s almost a wash on defense, but at least Justin can run better.]
• He’s got 1 year left on his contract, a deal which makes him the highest paid Brave for 2015.  His production is worthy of that $14.7 million, bute the Braves could really use the payroll flexibility.
• He’s got 1 year left on his contract, so that also means teams will still be willing to part with solid talent in return.
• Considering all free agent left fielders that will be on the market this fall, Justin is a better option than all of them.  That includes Nelson Cruz, given his age (34) and history.  Justin is actually a better fielder, too.  In other words, the market is ripe for a trade.

Cons

• He was the team’s leading RBI and HR man in 2014 – which means a decided lack of power if he were to depart.  While home runs are not a panacea (c.f. Royals, Cardinals), they do tend to mean that there’s a threat available whenever he comes to the plate.
• Yeah, we can trade Justin… but how do we replace him?  Our best internal option is Joey Terdoslavich… who hasn’t been given an everyday chance, but do you dare try that?  Or is that the focus of a trade (whether this one or another)?  It’s nice to say “let’s dump Justin for prospects”, but you also have to fill the hole on the field… unless the Braves truly think Gattis could do that (I don’t – not for 100 games).
• If we keep him until after 2015, Justin will get a Qualifying Offer and the Braves will get an extra draft pick.  Counter argument:  which would you rather have – that risky 2016 draft pick or an advanced prospect (or two) along with an extra $14.7 million to spend this year?

B.J. Upton (2) reacts to a called strike. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Other Factors

• His brother.  You might be tempted to start offering package deals involving both Uptons.  But (a) that “package” currently has a 1 year expiration date – Justin’s contract; (b) I don’t think there’s any team that needs both left and center fielders; and finally (c) if there is such a team, it doesn’t have $29.15 million to give to these guys next year.

Actually, there might be.  Two, even.  The Chicago Cubs and the Toronto Blue Jays.  But that’s as far as I’m willing to go today with speculation on something that far-fetched.

• His brother, part 2.  The removal of B.J. must be job number 1 for the Braves once “trading season” occurs.  Whether they end up going out together or not, this team cannot afford to lose the bat they have – Justin – without first removing the lineup hole they have (Melvin).

To lose Justin without moving B.J. means a lineup with only a couple of true impact hitters in it (Freddie Freeman and Gattis – if Gattis is around; Jason Heyward is something of an enigma right now).  That’s a lineup that can be beaten every night because it will not be able to score runs consistently.  You could simply pitch around the difficult spots.  This is why Fred’s trade ideas from last week make so much sense – he replaced the holes with players that can get on base and score.

So the key the off-season is actually B.J. – move him and then you’re much more free to improve the lineup in almost any other way.

• The whole 3-players-for-2-positions thing.  I laid out this logic when talking about Gattis.  It’s pretty clear that the Braves love Christian Bethancourt and want him to be the full-time catcher in 2015.  This should improve the pitching and defense.

That’s also what presents a problem:  what to do with Justin and Evan.  One of them probably has to go… if not both.

On balance, I think it would be best for the Braves interests – long-term – if Justin were moved.  I am tempted to say that about Gattis as well, but such deals (either one) will be scrutinized like crazy… and I do not envy those decisions.

Maybe if Melvin is actually gone by then, we won’t care so much.

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That is exactly why this off-season is going to be so very interesting:  we should see a significantly different lineup come April 2015.  The in-coming GM is going to have to hit the ground running, for there are major decisions to be made at multiple positions.  The entire tone of this Atlanta Braves squad could be set for the next several years by the calls made within the new boss’s first few weeks.

The chair will hardly be warmed up then – but that’s okay:  we the fans will help heat it up for him!

The Case for Trading Justin Upton – TomahawkTake.com