First Look: Braves 2015 Payroll

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To say that this is an “early look” at the Braves’ 2015 payroll is to undersell the point on just how “early” this is – but one has to start with the things we know.  From there, we can plan and speculate with full knowledge of what the impact will be.

On Friday, MLB Trade Rumors published a thorough Offseason Outlook piece on the Braves.  Once of the key pieces was a look at their first guess of arbitration awards that might be in the cards for each of our eight arb-eligible players.  Jeff mentioned this yesterday in his look at who’s signed/who’s not.  From their (typically highly-accurate) figures, I have put together a chart of the current contracts and forecasted contracts for players currently on the roster.

The Chart

(Click ’em to make this easier to read)

Current Braves’ Projected 2015 Payroll. Mandatory credit: TomahawkTake.com

The Details

Obviously things will change from this, but here are the immediate disclaimers:

• Players dropped:  all of the free agents.  That includes the list Jeff put together yesterday:  Aaron Harang, Ervin Santana, Gerald Laird, Ryan Doumit, Gavin Floyd, Emilio Bonifacio.
• I left open 2 slots for starting pitchers… because they will need to be filled.  That will also illustrate the budget crunch that the team will have to face – a problem that will complicate matters throughout the off-season.
• I assumed a major-league minimum salary of $510,000.  For those with minimal contracts (under $600K), whether I’m right or wrong will not matter much, as these figures will not swing the data very far.
• The current, committed dollars for 2015 stands at roughly $105 million.  On opening day 2014, I had the Braves at $116 million (thanks to taking on Ervin Santana and Ryan Doumit late in the process).  Don’t forget:  the extra $14 million paid to Ervin Santana was an ’emergency’ expenditure – not the result of a conscious payroll/budgetary increase.  Thus, you could argue that Atlanta is already over spent for 2015.
• Though reports suggest that Dan Uggla has been paid out, I am nonetheless counting his salary against the 2015 payroll – in the real world it is still real money, and thus has to be counted somewhere.  Since Braves’ ownership (Liberty Media) lives in that real world, I would expect them to reduce the 2015 budget to compensate for that loss.
• Though I have names associated with most slots, you don’t have to believe them.  For the rookies, you can treat them almost interchangeably for salary purposes.  So if you think Player X will be there instead of Player Y, then fine – not much will change.
• If you bother to count up the active players, you’ll find 24 – plus the 2 empty pitcher slots. Since this should be based on a 25-man roster, that means I’m probably half a million over… but don’t worry about a detail like that for this month.

MLB Key Dates Calendar

• Deadline for teams to make Qualifying Offers to its free agents:  5th day after end of World Series (earliest date:  Thursday, Oct. 30; latest date:  Monday, Nov. 3)
• Deadline for acceptance of any Qualfying Offers:  one calendar week later.
• Nov. 10-12:  General Managers’ meetings (Phoenix)
• Dec. 2 – “Non-tender” deadline (last day to offer contracts to players that are under team control, but not under a long-term deal.
• Dec. 8-11:  Winter Meetings (San Diego)
• Jan. 13:  Arbitration filing deadline
• Jan. 16:  Arbitration figures are exchanged (supposedly the last signing date for ‘File-and-Trial’ teams, which includes Atlanta)
• Feb. 1st:  Arbitration hearings begin.

Expectations

•  MLBTR listed only one player as a “non-tender candidate” – Jonny Venters. He will not be available – probably for the entire season.  Though you can argue strongly that ‘overuse’ of Jonny created his situation, the braves probably have no choice but to non-tender Venters [savings $1.63m]
• The situation with Kris Medlen is an interesting one:  he’s coming off his second Tommy John surgery and under the best case scenario, could start pitching in real games around May 1st.  Clearly, he’s worth more than $5-6 million if he’s healthy, but can the Braves accept that risk?  This will be a VERY interesting call.  [ $5.8 million involved ]
• Likewise for Brandon Beachy, though in his case, he had a “failed” TJ surgery and this second one is coming essentially right after the first.  As a result, he has thrown just 70 innings (including rehab starts) since the first injury in 2012.  Again – when he’s healthy, he’s very good.  At $1.45 million (estimated) from arbitration, this is an easier call to make – and one the Braves should make, given their rotation needs.
• Ramiro Pena.  Not sure if he will be tendered, given the presence of Philip Gosselin.  [ $900,000 involved ]
• Yes, it is clear that the team would like to be rid of B.J. Upton… but he’s still on the chart.  You can see that the Uptons together are responsible for almost 28% of the payroll as currently projected.  With an impact like that, you can guess that one or both could be on the move before Spring.

So that’s really not a lot of moving space available – and we still need 1-2 starters to make up for the loss of Harang and Santana.  That underscores the need to get budget space cleared.

But this chart – which we will continue to update as we go forward – illustrates the problems facing John Hart… or whoever gets the GM job.

First Look:  Braves 2015 Payroll – TomahawkTake.com