Atlanta Braves case for trading Jordan Walden
By Ryan Cothran
Alan started us off in this series by discussing 4 players of which the Atlanta Braves could shop this offseason.
Click on the links below to see Alan’s analysis on each:
The Case for Trading Evan Gattis
The Case for Trading Justin Upton
The Case for Trading Jason Heyward
The Case for Trading Chris Johnson
The first 3 are most definitely the “sexy” options for the offseason, as they’ll provide large returns if traded, paired with a fair amount of controversy. And Chris is at least an affordable option. However, I think there’s some other trade candidates that, while they won’t bring back as much as the 3 aforementioned players or be as contoversial, the return would be worth it to the Braves to at least shop the players. One of them…
Atlanta Braves Jordan Walden
While many will point to the acquisitions of Justin Upton or Michael Bourn as the best trades during Frank Wren’s tenure, one of the biggest lopsided trades, with the other team essentially receiving no production from their side, was Jordan Walden for Tommy Hanson. Walden has spent 2 years with the Braves, pitching 97 innings to a 3.15 ERA, 2.80 FIP, averaging 10.8 strikeouts/9 innings, good enough for a 1.5 WAR over 2 seasons. According to Fangraphs, Walden has been worth 8.1 million dollars over those 2 years, and has only cost the Braves 2 million. Meanwhile, Tommy Hanson didn’t last a year with the Angels, pitching 73 innings of lackluster baseball before being cut and picked up by the Rangers, cut again, and signed to a Minor League deal with the White Sox. That didn’t go well either. (Did I mention that 1 year of Hanson was double what the Braves paid for 2 years of Walden?) Essentially, Tommy was deemed doomed from the beginning by many pitching gurus for poor mechanics and the Braves probably knew that the talent in that arm was dern near dried up. There were risks from both sides as Walden had only pitched 39 innings the year prior and was also considered a health risk. The Braves gambled and won.
If the Braves think that Shae Simmons is their setup man of the future, Jordan Walden is the most logical choice to be traded this offseason. With Craig Kimbrel locked into the closer’s role and both David Carpenter and Shae Simmons being viable right-handed late inning options, the bullpen is getting stuffy. While Walden has been healthy, for the most part, during his Braves’ tenure, as mentioned before his health is suspect. Furthermore, Walden will be arbitration-eligible for the 2nd time this coming year, and could make as much as 3 million through the process. In conclusion, Walden is expendable.
Why would other teams want Walden?
1. He’s cheap- Even at 3 million, Walden is a bargain.
2. He’s under control for 2 years- Teams looking for stability in the bullpen could pencil in Walden for 2 years.
3. Closing experience- While Kimbrel and likely Simmons would have to go down with injury for Walden to close in Atlanta, Walden was once a successful closer for the Los Angeles Angels. Teams desperate for a closer could overpay for a chance to have Walden in the 9th inning for 2 years. While it’s too early to say what team is in need of solidifying their closer situation, it is at least worth mentioning that many teams 9th inning situations were ummm, less than stellar, and Walden would be a definite upgrade (**cough** Tigers**cough**Astros).
4. Consistency- In 5 years in the big leagues, Walden has a 2.80 ERA. His numbers in the American League and National League are nearly identical. In regards to relief pitchers, consistency is very difficult to come by.
What could the Atlanta Braves get for Walden?
This is difficult as Walden, by himself, would likely only bring back 1 top-10 prospect and maybe a fringe prospect to boot. Or, he could bring back a solid bench/platoon option under control for a few years (think Daniel Nava but that might be a stretch). However, if packaged right, Walden could be packaged with one of the aforementioned players (Gattis, Heyward, J.Upton) to sweeten the deal for larger prospects. My personal picks for Walden trades?
Walden plus a few relievers for Houston Astros Dexter Fowler.
Walden straight up for Red Sox Daniel Nava (admittedly a stretch)
Let’s hear from you guys! Should the Braves shop Walden? If so, what would your ideal trade be?