Another Bad Contract Swap Option
By Fred Owens
Ryan provided a lot of food for thought in both part one and part two of his series. I think he missed one bad contract because it’s hard to imagine this guy actually being a bad contract.
Is this contract bad enough?
We know that B.J. Upton is owed $46.3M over the next three years and that’s certainly in the top ten of bad contract but what about this one?
- Contract 1 year @$18M
- Team payroll this season $149M, committed to $127M next year
- Losing a player to free agency they need for his bat but will bust payroll
- Needs an outfielder capable of playing center field and fast enough to play the corners if needed
- Contract is for a pitcher that was worth –0.7 rWAR last year and hasn’t put up a positive rWAR since 2011
That isn’t pretty but it isn’t awful in BJ contract terms. For the Giants however Tim Lincecum’s contract is a bad contract.
Big time Timmy Jim was an overnight success winning Cy Award’s in his first two season’s and finishing in the top ten voting for the next two years. Then it was 2012 and the Freak put up freakishly awful numbers.
Who is that man and what have you done with Tim?
- Lincecum’s ERA typically under 3.00 jumped to 5.18.
- His 1.2+ WHIP climbed 1.46+.
- Instead of 212+ innings he threw just 183.
- He led the league in runs allowed with 107 about 40 more than his average and 26 more than his previous high total.
After leading the league in strikeouts in 2008.2009 and 2010, Lincecum’s K total fell to 190; still very good but his lowest total in prior years was 220. After taming the wild pitch monster that plagued him in his first full season, Tim left the cage unlocked allowing it to escape lead MLB with 17 wild pitches. As a result he finished 2012 with a –1.7 rWAR and a 10-15 record.His 2013 campaign wasn’t much better.
The Freak managed to bring his ERA down to 4.37 and his WHIP to 1.315. Once again he started over 30 games (32) and threw 197 2/3 innings but his ERA+ was a weak 79. That resembled a fifth starter worth a couple million a year but the Giants looked at his innings, K/BB rate and an FIP that said he was pitching in bad luck and still decided to give him a two year $35M extension.
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The 2014 season however wasn’t any kinder than the previous two. Lincecum’s ERA climbed about half a run to 4.74 and FIP mirrored that (4.31) yet xFIP still gave him a 3.81. He started only 26 games and managed a winning record (12-9) but his K/9 dropped to a career low and his HR/FB rate continued to hover near the 14% level in spit of pitching in a slightly pitcher friendly ball park. All of that explains why the $18M he has coming to him in 2015 is a huge overpay and makes his contract a bad one.
Even with an influx of post season cash it’s hard to see the Giants adding $12m to their payroll next year to keep Pablo Sandoval. Panda made $8.5M this year and most expect him to get more than Hunter Pence’s 5 year $90M on the open market. His post season performance may push that number even higher. That makes $12M more for Panda a pretty good guess.
Show me the money?
Sportrac (subscription required) shows the Giants committed to $127,277,777 in 13 players. They have a pair of Brandons – Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford – as the big names on their arbitration list. Crawford is widely considered the second best shortstop in the NL. He will get a raise but not one that affects the books. Even if the Giants extend him that can give him a modest raise in 15 and 16 them bump it up in 2017 and beyond.
Belt made $2.9M this season and that’s likely to become $4.5 next season even if they extend him as well ala Freddie Freeman. Travis Ishikawa isn’t going to break the bank but the Giants reward those who serve well. The same goes for Gregor Blanco. On the whole those four and five others should add another $6-7 M. To keep the numbers simple let’s say that takes them to $133M. Dump even a $15M Sandoval contract on that and you’re at $148M. I’m going to suggest that the Giants would love to save $10M next year. That could happen with the right mix of players.
Go on I’m listening. . . er reading. . .
Let’s say the Braves take the Freak and Marco Scutaro off the Giants hands, that relieves them of $24.6M of payroll liability (Lincecum’s $18M and Scutaro’s $6.6M). The Braves provide them with BJ, Jordan Walden, David Hale and Joey Terdoslavich. The Giants are flush with pitching in their top 20 prospects but lack position players now that Andrew Susac and Matt Duffy are with the team. They would pay BJ this year but we would pay half of BJ’s salary in 2016 and 2017.
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The Braves would add that $24.6M but lose BJ’s 14.5 and Walden’s $3M or so arbitration money. There’s a nice chance Scutaro could be flipped as part of a package to a team needing a second baseman (Toronto?) in any case, leaving us with just Timmy as our 5th starter. That’s not a bad option but even if we have to keep Scutaro that wouldn’t be awful.
Wait Tim was awful but he’s not a bad option?
Yes. Our infield defense is as good or better than the Giants except at third and maybe second but that’s close. If the outfield contains Jason Heyward, and above average center and left fielders it’s as good or better than the Giants. We lose out at catcher no matter which man is back there.
Roger McDowell has – rightly or wrongly – a reputation as a pitching coach able to help troubled pitchers regain their glory. Perhaps he can do something Dave Righetti couldn’t. Righetti is a superb pitching coach as well but often a change of scenery helps out and this would be a big change fro Lincecum. It adds a good clubhouse guy and a veteran arm to the staff as well as clear bench space for the new CF whoever he may be.
That’s a Wrap
We’ve seen in Ryan’s posts how challenging finding a trade partner that matches up to our meager offerings while hanging on to our core can be. Bruce Bochy is one of the top five manager’s in the game. If anyone can get BJ back on track he can. Maybe he can get Bonds to help with that – no needles involved you understand.
Will it happen? Probably not. These things are often created out of nothing. Remember that the Dan Uggla trade started off a a note asking for Martin Prado. Okay bad comparison. In any event there are always wheels turning that we can’t see and often don’t know exist. This was simply a mental exercise, possible but not probable. I’m sure you’ll let me know how wrong I was and I look forward to agreeing with you . . . or not.