Would a Big Free Agent Pitcher Be Worth It?
This offseason, the Braves have an interesting dilemma. They’ve produced a future ace in Julio Teheran and one of the best #2 starters in the league in Alex Wood, but the rest of their pitching is unsure at this time. Will Mike Minor be healthy in 2015, and if he is, which version of Minor will show up? Will the Braves bring back Kris Medlen and/or Brandon Beachy, and if they do, what can be expected from either player? Are young pitchers like Jason Hursh, Cody Martin, David Hale, Aaron Northcraft, or even Williams Perez or Greg Ross ready to come up to the major league club and contribute?
Looking over that list of questions quickly allows one to see why the Braves should be in the market for a starter or two (or three!) this offseason. The question is whether they pursue guys like Aaron Harang, guys like Ervin Santana, or the “major” free agent starters this offseason: Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, or James Shields.
Quick bios on each:
Jon Lester – Pitched for Boston until the trade deadline in 2014, when he was traded to the Athletics. Left-handed, 31 years old on opening day 2015. Heavy postseason experience (and success) along with averaging 207 innings from 2008-2014 with 8.4 K/9 and an ERA+ of 124. A cancer survivor.
Max Scherzer – Pitched for the Detroit Tigers in 2014. Right-handed, 30 years old on opening day 2015. Cy Young Award winner in 2013 and averaged 217 innings over the last two years with 10.2 K/9 and a 135 ERA+.
James Shields – Pitched for the Kansas City Royals in 2014. Right-handed, 33 years old on opening day 2015. Extremely durable starter has thrown an average of 223 innings from 2007-2014 (!!) with 7.7 K/9 and 113 ERA+.
These pitchers are likely each going to command an annual salary of $20M and/or $90M+ total package contract. My curiosity led me to look up exactly how those sort of contracts have worked out for teams in the past. We’ll examine both groups:
$90M+ total contract club
Clayton Kershaw, $215M total over 7 years, 2014-2020
Justin Verlander, $180M total over 7 years, 2013-2019
Felix Hernandez, $175M total over 7 years, 2013-2019
C.C. Sabathia, $161M total over 7 years, 2009-2015
Masahiro Tanaka, $155M over 7 years, 2014-2020
Zack Greinke, $147M over 6 years, 2013-2018
Cole Hamels, $144M over 6 years, 2013-2018
Johan Santana, $137.5M over 6 years, 2008-2013
Matt Cain, $127.5M over 6 years, 2012-2017
Barry Zito, $126M over 7 years, 2007-2013
C.C. Sabathia, $122M over 5 years, 2012-2016
Mike Hampton, $121M over 8 years, 2001-2008
Cliff Lee, $120M over 5 years, 2011-2015
Kevin Brown, $105M over 7 years, 1999-2005
Adam Wainwright, $97.5M over 5 years, 2014-2018
Carlos Zambrano, $91.5M over 5 years, 2008-2012
$20M annual contract club (excluding those who are in the first club)
Roger Clemens, $28M in 2007
Roger Clemens, $22M in 2006
Tim Lincecum, $40.5M from 2012-2013
Roy Halladay, $60M from 2011-2013
So, 18 pitchers mentioned total with CC and Clemens making appearances twice on their lists. How would one evaluate these deals, however? I decided to try utilizing Fangraphs’ player value function on their individual player pages to see how much value they provided for their team over the contract.
Evaluation
Obviously, many of these are extensions, so they’re not exactly the same as a free agent contract signed this offseason. Heck, even Carlos Zambrano provided solid value for his club on the contract when it was an extension, so it’s obvious that teams that open the bankroll for their own guys get it right more often than not. The best part of the extension is that even if the player flames out in his contract, the team has already cashed in on some tremendous value. For instance, Clayton Kershaw has earned $23,844,000 in his career this far, and by Fangraphs’ value metric, he’s provided the Dodgers with $169.1M in value thus far in his career overall. By the end of his extension, the Dodgers will have paid Kershaw ~$240M for 13 years of wearing the Dodger blue. Current per WAR value is approximately $5M/WAR, so to make up the $70M in value, Kershaw will need to provide 14 WAR over the rest of his contract. Kershaw produced 7.2 WAR in just 2014, so it’s very likely that he will match that.
The short term deals in straight money value went pretty much bad as a whole. Halladay came closest to earning his paid value of the contract by giving $42.8M of value to the Phillies while being paid $60M. Putting Lincecum’s contract in similar light to the discussion as Kershaw’s extension mentioned earlier does make Lincecum’s contract look better as the Giants paid ~$65M for ~$120M of value produced by Lincecum as a Giant up to 2013. Clemens didn’t return $20M total of value for the $50M he was paid in 2006-2007.
That leaves the straight free agent contracts. Not many of these have really had time to bear out. Sabathia’s first contract actually looks like a pretty solid value, producing $112M of value for $132.9M paid to do it. Considering his injuries the last couple of years, that’s pretty remarkable production. Greinke has given the Dodgers $35.7M in value his first two years while being paid $45M to do it. Those guys are often the guys used to compare for Lester and Scherzer, respectively, so there’s decent value there, though the team definitely overpays in each case. Lee’s deal has been considered a possible high mark for Shields to aim for, and he’s been one of the few to out-produce his contract, giving $85.5M of value while being paid $82.5M. Guys like Hampton and Zito were massive flops, but guys truly worth a massive free agent contract like the ones listed have typically produced 60%+ of their paid value, including the originator, Kevin Brown, who earned roughly $67M (estimation mine based on per WAR value trends as the Fangraphs data does not go back that far) for $105M cost.
What does this mean for the Braves?
In a phrase: stay away! While these big contracts in general produce decent value, that’s very, very highly skewed by the extensions given to pitchers that teams know are worth the extensions. The only guy I would even inquire on this offseason among the big 3 pitchers would be Shields, who may have seen his value hurt some by his postseason performance this season with a 6.12 ERA in his 5 postseason starts this year. He’s still a big inning guy who could give the Braves huge value, but not at a 4- or 5-year contract. If he’d entertain a 3-year, big money deal, I’d actually consider that. The biggest issue perhaps is the man in the photo for this post. The Braves have had such poor success in their recent big free agent pursuits that the team may be snake bit, even if there was budget room to afford any of these big 3 pitchers, which I’m also pretty certain there won’t be this year. Instead, the Braves should be pursuing guys at the middle level and “reclamation” level like a Jason Hammel/Francisco Liriano/Kenta Maeda or Josh Johnson/Gavin Floyd/Chad Billingsley to fill out their pitching staff, spending $20M on 2-3 guys rather than one guy.